Attachment 41Retail Resilience in Downtown Los Gatos:
Potential Impact of Alternative North 40 Development Scenarios
Executive Summary
At its September 16, 2014 meeting, the Los Gatos Town Council asked for additional
information in an economic impact analysis or other report that can better address
potential impacts of North 40 development on Downtown. The scope of the request
consists of three tasks: (1) an analysis of sizes of retail spaces; (2) a hypothetical case study
comparing how different kinds of retail might affect Downtown; and (3) a determination of
whether regulatory schemes, ordinances, or policies that exist in Downtown should be
maintained or included in the North 40 Specific Plan.
To accomplish these tasks, this report develops five hypothetical development scenarios in
the North 40 that represent a spectrum of competiveness from most competitive to least
competitive, and utilizes a varying mix of leasing rates and terms, space size, business type
mix, and regulatory schemes to represent the characteristics of each scenario. Following
presentation of this framework, the report then develops the "most realizable"
development scenario that is based upon market analysis, pending planning applications,
and interviews with local industry representatives who are active in the Los Gatos area.
This "most realizable" scenario is then matched with the most similar hypothetical
scenario, and the report concludes with a summary of findings.
The primary finding of this report is that the most realizable scenario for development in
the North 40 is likely to present only low levels of competition with Downtown Los Gatos.
This is for three reasons. First, leasing rates are likely to be higher in the North 40 and the
overlap of space size and business types between the North 40 and Downtown Los Gatos is
likely to be low. This means that there is little market advantage and /or availability of
space for existing businesses to relocate to the North 40 from Downtown Los Gatos.
Second, even if there is more overlap of space and leasing rates between the two areas,
local real estate professionals expressed the opinion that there is little crossover in demand
for retail space between Downtown Los Gatos and the North 40. In other words, businesses
either want to locate in Downtown or they do not.
The secondary finding of the report is that the North 40 could symbiotically increase
business activity in Downtown Los Gatos if the mix of business types and space size in the
North 40 complement, rather than compete, with the mix of business types and sizes in
Downtown Los Gatos.
ATTACHMENT 41
Introduction
This analysis tests the resilience of retail viability in Downtown Los Gatos (DLG) against
five alternative development scenarios in the North 40 (N40) Specific Plan area. Rather
than using arbitrary alternative scenarios, the five alternatives used in this analysis
represent a spectrum of development in the N40 that range from perfectly (i.e., most)
competitive to least competitive. Data used in this analysis is drawn from four sources: (1)
a Downtown Los Gatos retail and restaurant inventory, (2) the N40 Specific Plan and
pending planning applications for Phase 1 of the N40, (3) market listings for retail and
office space in the DLG area, and (4) interviews with industry representatives who are
active in the Los Gatos area. Due to a desire for confidentiality, the name of the
interviewees and details of the conversation with the industry representatives are not
documented in this report.
Framework for Resiliency Analysis
This report uses five hypothetical development scenarios in the N40 that represent a range
of competition with DLG, from perfectly competitive (i.e., the most competitive) to least
competitive. While competition between two retail areas can arise among many criteria, for
the sake of brevity this analysis focuses on three areas of competition: leasing rates and
terms, types and sizes of commercial enterprises, and regulatory schemes. The following
lists the characteristics of these five scenarios:
Scenario (1): North 40 is Perfectly (i.e., most) Competitive with Downtown
• Leasing rates and terms: prices per square foot in the N40 are equal to, or
lower than DLG, and leasing terms are more flexible in N40.
• Size and mix of spaces and types of commercial enterprises: size and mix
retail spaces are nearly identical.
• Regulatory schemes: the ease to which businesses can establish their
operation, and consumers can access parking, is much easier in the N40 than
DLG.
Scenario (2): North 40 is Strongly Competitive with Downtown
• Leasing rates and terms: prices per square foot and leasing terms are nearly
equivalent, or slightly greater in the N40.
• Size and mix of spaces and types of commercial enterprises: total size and
mix of retail spaces are very similar between DLG and N40.
• Regulatory schemes: the ease to which businesses can establish their
operation, and consumers can access parking, is easier in the N40 than DLG.
Scenario (3): North 40 is Semi - Competitive with Downtown
• Leasing rates and terms: prices per square foot are slightly lower in DLG but
leasing terms are slightly more flexible in N40.
• Size and mix of spaces and types of commercial enterprises: total size and
mix of retail spaces are somewhat different between N40 and DLG.
• Regulatory schemes: the ease to which businesses can establish their
operation, and consumers can access parking, is somewhat easier in the N40
than DLG.
Scenario (4): North 40 is Marginally Competitive with Downtown
• Leasing rates and terms: prices per square foot are lower and leasing terms
more flexible in DLG.
• Size and mix of spaces and types of commercial enterprises: total size and
mix of spaces are very different between N40 and DLG.
• Regulatory schemes: the ease to which businesses can establish their
operation, and consumers can access parking, is marginally easier in the N40
than DLG.
Scenario (5): North 40 is Non - Competitive with Downtown
• Leasing rates and terms: prices per square foot are much lower and leasing
terms much more flexible in DLG.
• Size and mix of daces and types of commercial enterprises: there is almost
no overlap in total size of spaces and mix of tenants between N40 and DLG.
• Regulatory schemes: the ease to which businesses can establish their
operation, and consumers can access parking, is roughly equivalent, or more
burdensome, in the N40 than DLG.
Generation of Scenarios
In the analysis that follows, the most competitive scenario (scenario 1) is used as the
baseline scenario. In this scenario, the three areas of competition - leasing rates and terms,
mix of space size and business type, and regulatory schemes - are set at the hypothetical
level at which the N40 would provide the strongest level of competition with DLG. In other
words, scenario 1 provides the "tipping point" in which proprietors of businesses in DLG
may consider relocating their business from DLG to the N40, or at which proprietors
seeking to establish their business might prefer locating their business in the N40 rather
than DLG. All subsequent scenarios (scenarios 2 - 5) represent a decreasing continuum of
competitiveness. Scenario 5 thus offers a hypothetical scenario in which the characteristics
of the three areas of competition are least similar in the N40 compared to DLG.
Because these five scenarios consist of three areas of competition each, there are a total of
15 possible unique combinations. For sake of simplicity, this analysis will only present one
unique combination that represents a hypothetical development for each given scenario.
After these five hypothetical scenarios are presented, the most likely scenario to emerge
will be discussed based on limited qualitative (interviews /ground -level observations) and
quantitative (market information) data gathering. A summary concludes the report.
Baseline assumptions: Leasing Term and Rates
The baseline scenario for leasing terms and rates is dependent on estimates of existing
leasing terms and rates in DLG. From independent research performed both by Town Staff
and the consultant of this report, estimated retail leasing rates are in the range of $2.75 -
$3.65 per square foot. The most common leasing terms for retail /restaurant /personal
service are 5 year- contracts, with larger more established businesses able to retain month -
to -month contracts "on credit." See Appendix 1 for example market listings.
All other factors equal, the tipping point at which businesses may be attracted to the N40
away from DLG is assumed to be when rents in the N40 are equal to or less than leasing
rates and terms in DLG. From the market research above, leasing rates for retail would
need to be equal to or less than an average of $2.75 - $3.65 per square foot. Scenarios 2 -5
are based upon increasingly more expensive and longer -term leases in the N40 (therefore
less competitive with DLG).
Baseline assumptions: Size and Mix of Retail Spaces
All else equal, the theoretical tipping point at which retail businesses would be most able to
move from DLG to the N40 would be a scenario where the N40 offers retail space that is
most similar in size and mix to that which is currently available in DLG. Table 1
summarizes the existing mix of size and commercial enterprise types that is currently
available in DLG. To determine the most competitive "baseline" scenario, the existing
percentage of mix and business type in DLG is applied to the 400,000 square feet of
potential retail space in the N40.
Table 1: Inventory matrix of existing commercial enterprise size and type in Downtown Los Gatos
Type of Retail/
Size Class
Restaurant
Sq ft.
Non- Formula
Retail S . ft
Formula Retail
S . ft
Personal Service
S . ft.
<5,000 sgft.
92,616 (57 %)
200,977 85%
20,817 31%
33,399 72%
5,000 - 10,000 sgft.
60,464 (37 %)
36,623 15%
45,558 69%
-
10,000 - 20,000 sgft.
10,259(6%)
-
-
13,012 28%
Column Total
163,339 32%
237,600 46%
66,375 13%
46,411(9%)
Note: For size classes, the value in parentheses represents the percent of column total. For the row labeled
column total, the value in parentheses represents the percent of total square feet by establishment type.
While the C -2 Zone includes over 500,000 square feet of commercial space on the ground floor, for
comparison purposes this study only considered the restaurant, retail, and personal service square footage
on the ground floor with the exception of Charley's of LG and Los Gatos Bar and Grill. Downtown also
includes approximately 245,000 square feet of hotel and ground floor office. Data source: the Downtown Los
Gatos retail and restaurant inventory.
Given this assumption, the most competitive development scenario for business type mix
by total square footage in the N40 is 32 percent (128,000 square feet) restaurant, 46
percent (184,000 square feet) non - formula retail, 13 percent formula retail (52,000 square
feet), and 9 percent (36,000 square feet) personal services (see bottom row of Table 2). Of
the 128,000 square feet of restaurant space, the most competitive scenario in the N40
4
would consist of 57 percent (72,960 square feet) of space available that is 5,000 sq. feet or
less in size, and 43 percent (55,040 square feet) that is between 5,000 and 10,000 square
feet in size (first column of Table 2). Note that there is no restaurant space included in the
10,000 - 20,000 square foot range because the proportional application of square feet
identical to that in DLG is below 10,000 square feet, and thus not possible. As such, the
remainder (7,680 square feet) is added to the 5,000 - 10,000 square foot category.
Of the 184,000 square feet of non - formula retail, the most competitive scenario in the N40
would consist of 85 percent (156,400 square feet) of space available that is 5,000 sq. feet or
less in size, with the remainder (27,600 square feet) between 5,000 and 10,000 sq. feet in
size (second column of Table 2). Of the 52,000 square feet of formula retail, the most
competitive scenario would have 31 percent (16,120 square feet) of space available that is
5,000 sq. feet or less in size and 69 percent (35,880 square feet) that is between 5,000 and
10,000 sq. feet (third column of Table 2). Of the 36,000 square feet of personal service, the
most competitive scenario in the N40 would consist 72 percent (25,920 square feet) of
space that is 5,000 sq. feet or less in size with the remainder (10,080 square feet) between
10,000 and 20,000 sq. feet (fourth column of Table 2).
Table 2 shows this breakdown proportionally by retail type and space size. Scenarios 2 - 5
are based upon an increasingly less similar mix of space and commercial enterprise types.
When looking at the mix of retail, the least competitive mix in the N40 would offer larger
space (above 20,000 square feet), and space that would be designed to cater more to
formula retail and personal service businesses. For business type mix, the least competitive
scenario would consist of space that caters more towards formula retail and personal
service.
Table 2: Scenario 1 - Perfectly Competitive hypothetical development of business type of space size in the N40
Business Type/
Size Class
Restaurant
Sq ft.
Non - Formula
Retail S . ft
Formula Retail
S . ft
Personal Service
S . ft.
<5,000 sqft.
72,960 (57 %)
156,400 85%
16,120 31%
25,920 72%
5,000 - 10,000 sqft.
55,040 (43%)*
27,600 15%
35,880 69%
-
10,000 - 20,000 sqft.
-
-
-
10,080 28%
Column Total
128,000 32%
184,000 46%
52,000 13%
36,000(9%)
Note: For size classes, the value in parentheses represents the percent of column total. For the row labeled
column total, the value in parentheses represents the percent of total square feet by establishment type.
*7,680 square feet of restaurant was moved from the 10,000 - 20,000 square foot category to the 5,000 -
10,000 square foot category since a 7,680 square foot space is not possible in the former.
Baseline asumptions: Regulatory Schemes
The underlying analysis of regulatory schemes in this report is based on how different sets
of regulations affect the ease to which businesses can be established in the N40. At the core
of this analysis is an examination of the trade -offs between Conditional Use Permit (CUPS),
parking time limits, and parking abundance between DLG and the N40.
With respect to the application of CUPs in the N40, the tipping point at which proprietors of
existing or future businesses may consider (re)locating their business from DLG to the N40
is difficult to measure, and somewhat more subjective than the previous analyses. In
general, CUPS that are more prevalent and restrictive in DLG than in the N40 would, all else
equal, make commercial space in the N40 appear to be a more attractive option for
business proprietors than space in DLG. However in practice, CUPS are often implemented
for specific business types (e.g., restaurants, personal service, alcohol sales, etc.), and as
such, do not affect all business types in the same manner. Thus, the hypothetical
application of CUPS in the 5 scenarios is subjectively applied in a manner that is
appropriate for the level of competition in each scenario.
In the baseline scenario, the most competitive application of CUPS would be a situation in
which DLG retains existing CUP requirements and the N40 has no such restrictions. This
scenario would provide businesses with fewer burdens when establishing in the N40
compared to DLG. Scenarios 2 -5 assume progressively more CUP requirements in the N40,
with the least competitive scenario (scenario 5) assuming the equivalent or greater CUP
requirements in N40.
The effect of parking time limits and parking abundance is somewhat more ambiguous.
From a consumer demand perspective, removing time limits and requiring abundant
parking in the N40 would provide automobile- dependent visitors to the N40 a less
burdensome shopping experience compared to DLG, and may thus shift consumer demand
from DLG to the N40. The lack of time limits and abundant parking supply would allow
automobile- dependent customers to " loiter' around the N40 for longer periods when
compared to DLG. From a supply perspective, requiring such conditions in the N40 may
create more burdensome costs and processes for acquiring permits, and would have
varying effects on the viability of certain types of businesses. More specifically, businesses
that rely on longer customer visits, such as restaurants and large format retail, may benefit
more from an absence of parking time limits and greater provision of parking supply in the
N40 when compared to DLG. On the other hand, businesses that rely on quicker customer
turnover, such as non - formula retail and personal service, may benefit more from parking
time limit restrictions.
The assumption underlying parking time limits and supply in each scenario is that, all else
equal, more abundant parking in the N40 would draw customers to the N40 and away from
DLG, but that implementation of parking time limits would have the opposite effect. Thus in
the most competitive scenario, parking time limits are not implemented while parking
supply is greater in the N40 than in DLG. Scenarios 2 -5 thus assume progressively greater
applications of parking time limits and reduced parking supply among different business
types. In other words, scenario 5 (least competitive) assumes full application of parking
time limits and greater abundance of parking supply in DLG because these characteristics
would reduce the likelihood that customers would prefer parking conditions in the N40
when compared to DLG.
The following section provides summary tables and a brief description of the assumptions
for each scenario.
M
Details of Scenarios
Table 3: Scenario comparison for leasing rates and terms in the N40
Scenario/
Business Type
S1 Leasing
rates
S2 Leasing
Rates
S3 Leasing
Rates
S4 Leasing
Rates
SS Leasing
Rates
Restaurant
$2.75 - $3.65
$3.50 - $4.00
$4.00 - $4.50
$4.50 - $5.00
$5.00+
Non- Formula
$2.75 - $3.65
$3.50 - $4.00
$4.00 - $4.50
$4.50 - $5.00
$5.00+
Formula
$2.75 - $3.65
$3.50 - $4.00
$4.00 - $4.50
$4.50 - $5.00
$5.00+
Personal Service
$2.75 - $3.65
$3.50 - $4.00
$4.00 - $4.50
$4.50 - $5.00
$5.00+
Scenario/
Business Type
S1 Leasing
terms
S2 Leasing
terms
S3 Leasing
terms
S4 Leasing
terms
SS Leasing
terms
Restaurant
1 -2 years
2 - 3 years
3 - 4 years
4 - 5 years
5+ years
Non - Formula
1 -2 ears
2 - 3 ears
3 - 4 ears
4 - 5 ears
5+ ears
Formula
1 -2 ears
2 - 3 years
3 - 4 years
4 - 5 years
5+ years
Personal Service
1 -2 years
2 - 3 years
3 - 4 years
4 - S years
S+ years
Table 3 compares the leasing rates and terms of the five competitive scenarios. As
mentioned above, scenario 1 (Sl) represents the baseline "tipping point," where leasing
rates in the N40 are equal to or less than leasing rates in DLG. From market research,
leasing rates for retail /restaurant /personal service space in the N40 would need to be
equal to or less than an average of $2.75 - $3.65 per square foot to be more competitive
than DLG. Scenarios 2 -5 are based upon increasingly more expensive leasing rates (and
therefore less competitive) in the N40.
For leasing terms, the most common structure for restaurant /retail /personal service in
DLG is 5 year- contracts. In general, businesses prefer flexible lease structures. Thus, the
most competitive N40 scenario would entail lease structures that are more flexible than
DLG, and the assumption is scenario 1 is that 1 -2 year leasing terms in the N40 would be
more attractive to businesses than the 5 -year norm in DLG.
Table 4 compares the hypothetical square foot allotment of business types and space size
between the five competitive scenarios. Scenario 1 matches, as closely as possible, the
proportion of business types and space size that currently exist in DLG. Scenarios 2 -5
assume progressively different allotments of business types and space size, and shifts
competitive space away from restaurants and non - formula retail (assumed to be the types
of business most vulnerable to competition in DLG) and towards formula retail and
personal service.
7
Table 4: Scenario comparison for square foot allotment
Scenario/
Business Type
Sl
S2
S3
S4
S5
Restaurant
<5,000 sqft
72,960 57%
62,400 52%
33,000 33%
10,000 20%
5,000 - 10,000 sqft
55,040 (43%)*
38,400 32%
33,000 33%
10,000 20%
10,000 - 20,000
sqft
12,000 (10 %)
33,000 (33 %)
30,000 (60 %)
20,000+ sqft
-
-
-
-
40,000 100%
Total of N40 sqft
128,000 32%
120,000
30%
100,000 25%
50,000 (20 %)
40,000 (10 %)
Non - formula
Retail
S1
S2
S3
S4
SS
<5,000 sqft
156,400 (85 %)
112,200
85
75,000 (75 %)
15,000 (30 %)
-
5,000 - 10,000 sqft
27,600 15%
19,800 15%
25,000 25%
15,000 30%
15,000 37%
10,000 - 20,000
sqft
-
-
-
20,000 (40 %)
25,000 (63 %)
20,000+ sqft.
-
-
-
-
-
% of total N40 sqft
184,000 46%
132,000
33%
100,000 (25 %)
50,000
12.5%
40,000 10o /a
Formula Retail
S1
S2
S3
S4
SS
<5,000 sqft.
16,120 31%
20,000 33%
25,000 25%
15,000 10%
5,000 - 10,000 sqft.
35,880 69%
40,000 66%
75,000 75%
30,000 20%
60,000 37.50/0
10,000 - 20,000
sqft.
105,000
70%
50,000 (31 %)
20,000+ sqft.
-
-
-
50,000 31%
% of total N40 sqft
52,000 (13 %)
60,000 (15 %)
100,000 (25 %)
150,000
37.5%
160,000 40%
Personal Service
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
<5,000 sqft
25,920 72%
61,646 70%
25,000 25%
30,000 20%
-
5,000 - 10,000 sqft
75,000 75%
75,000 50%
20,000 12.5%
10,000 - 20,000
sqft
10,080 (28 %)
26,420 (30%)
-
45,000 (30 %)
80,000 (50 %)
20,000+ sqft
-
-
-
60,000 37.5%
% of total N40 sqft
36,000(9%)
88,066 (22 %)
100,000 (25 %)
150,000
37.5%
160,000 40%
*7,680 square feet was moved from the 10,000 - 20,000 square foot category to the 5,000 - 10,000 square
foot category, since a 7,680 square foot space is not possible in the former.
Table 5: Scenario comparison for regulatory schemes
Scenario/
Business Type
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
CUPS
Restaurant
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Non - Formula Retail
N
N
N
N
N
Formula Retail
N
N
N
Y
Y
Personal Service
N
N
N
N
Y
Parking Time
Limits = DLG
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Restaurant
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Non- Formula Retail
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Formula Retail
N
N
N
Y
Y
Personal Service
N
N
N
Y
Y
Parking Supply:
N40 > DLG
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
Restaurant
Y
Y
N
N
N
Non- Formula Retail
Y
N
N
N
N
Formula Retail
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Personal Service
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Table 5 compares a variety of regulatory tools that can be implemented in the N40. In
general, CUPS that are more prevalent and restrictive in DLG than in the N40 would, all else
equal, make commercial space in the N40 appear to be a more attractive option for
business proprietors than space in DLG. Thus, the hypothetical application of CUPS in the 5
scenarios is subjectively applied in a manner that is appropriate for the level of competition
in each scenario. The increasingly less competitive application of CUPS is structured in a
manner that initially protects restaurants and non - formula retail in DLG (assumed to be the
types of business most vulnerable to competition in DLG) from competition in the N40, but
that ultimately (in Scenario 5) all uses in the N40 require the same CUPS as in DLG.
The assumption underlying parking time limits and supply in each scenario is that, all else
equal, more abundant parking in the N40 would draw customers to the N40 and away from
DLG, but that implementation of parking time limits would have the opposite effect. Thus in
the most competitive scenario, parking time limits are not implemented while parking
supply is greater in the N40 than in DLG. Scenarios 2 -5 thus assume progressively greater
applications of parking time limits and reduced parking supply among different business
types. In other words, scenario 5 (least competitive) assumes full application of parking
time limits and greater abundance of parking supply in DLG because these characteristics
would reduce the likelihood that customers would prefer parking conditions in the N40
when compared to DLG.
Most realizable scenario as of November 2014
Rents
From interviews with industry representatives active in the Los Gatos area, average
commercial rents for new build in the N40 are likely to be in the $4.00 - $5.00 per square
foot range. This range corresponds with leasing rates specified in development scenarios 3
and 4, and represents a semi - competitive to marginally competitive scenario.
Business size and mix
The current development application for Phase 1 consists of 66,317 of total commercial
space, with 66 percent (43,535 square feet) of retail, 12 percent (7,659) personal service
space, and 23 percent (15,123 square feet) of restaurant space. The 43,535 square feet of
retail is composed of 26 percent (13,355 square feet) of space under 5,000 square feet in
size, 37 percent (19,112 square feet) of space between 5,000 and 10,000 square feet, and
31 percent (15,806 square feet) between 10,000 and 20,000 square feet in size. The 7,659
square feet of personal service consists solely of one space between 5,000 and 10,000
square feet in size. The 15,123 square feet of restaurant space consists of six restaurants
and one cafe, all less than 5,000 square feet in size.
While the mix and size of business establishments in the remaining build -out of the N40
development is uncertain, interviews with industry representatives active in the Los Gatos
area suggest that a plan of approximately 300,000 square feet of retail /restaurant use is
most feasible, with 8 percent (25,000 square feet) restaurant and 92 percent (275,000
square feet) retail. The interview also revealed that a large proportion (40 -50 %) of the
retail space would best cater to businesses seeking space that is 15,000 square feet or
larger, with 3 -5 large anchor retailers (40,000 square feet or greater), and that only about
40,000 - 50,000 square feet would be feasible for small businesses (spaces 5,000 square
feet or less in size).
Cumulatively, Phase 1 and the hypothetical build -out represent approximately 390,000
square feet of combined retail /personal service space. Approximately 40,000 square feet
(10 %) is restaurant, 30,000 square feet (8 %) personal service, and 320,000 square feet of
retail (82 %).
Of the 320,000 square feet retail, a large proportion is likely to be dedicated to medium or
large spaces - approximately 160,000 square feet would be dedicated to spaces that are
40,000 square feet or greater. Of the 40,000 square feet of restaurant, most are small
(5,000 square feet) spaces. Of the 33,000 square feet of personal service, the majority
would be medium to large spaces - one space approximately 8,000 square feet in Phase 1,
and one 25,000 square foot space in the hypothetical build -out.
10
Regulatory Schemes
The three land use tools used in the comparative analysis above - CUPs, parking time
limits, and abundant parking space provision - are determined by the Council, and thus the
likelihood of any of these policies being implemented in the N40 is unknown at this time.
As a result, these three land use tools are excluded from determining the most realizable
scenario. However, the summary below discusses the varying ways in which these land use
tools might affect the most realizable scenario.
Table 6: Most realizable development scenario, combined Phase t and hypothetical build-out
Leasing rate terms
Restaurant
Retail
Personal Service
Lease rates
$4.00 - $5.00
$4.00 - $5.00
$4.00 - $5.00
Lease terms
S years
5 years
5 years
Retail Type /Size
Restaurant S ft.
Retail S ft.
Personal Service S ft.
<5,000 s ft.
15,000 37.5%
50,000 16%
5,000 - 10,000 s ft.
25,000 62.5%
50,000 16%
8,000(24%)
10,000 - 20,000 s ft.
-
60,000 19%
-
20,000+ s ft.
-
160,000 50%
25,000 76%
Column Total
40,000 10%
320,000 82%
33,000(8%)
Regulation Scheme
Restaurant
Retail
Personal Service
CUPS Required
TBD
TBD
TBD
Parking Time Limits
TBD
TBD
TBD
Abundant Parking
TBD
TBD
TBD
Note: All square footage figures are estimated based on the submitted plans for Phase 1, and figures
for the hypothetical build -out are based on ideas from local industry representatives about what
uses are most feasible on the site. Figures above are a combined estimate from Phase 1 and the
hypothetical build -out.
11
Summary
Given the most realizable scenario described above, the level of competition between the
N40 and DLG is likely to be somewhere between marginally competitive (Scenario 4) and
non - competitive (Scenario 5). While inherent competition arises from any new commercial
development in Los Gatos, the most realizable leasing rates and mix of business
types /space in the N40 are minimally competitive with DLG, and businesses in DLG are not
likely to relocate to the N40. This finding is supported primarily by two characteristics of
the most realizable scenario: (1) leasing rates in the N40 are likely to be roughly
equivalent, or even larger, than DLG, and (2) the mix of business types of space size are in
the N40 is likely to only minimally overlap with DLG.
However, implementation of different regulatory tools can also affect the mix of business
type and sizes that locate in the N40. Implementation of parking space time limitations is
most likely to restrict the ability of small, non - formula businesses to locate in commercial
space in the N40. Conversely, larger and more established businesses, such as large format
retailers and /or formula retail establishments, are most able to absorb the added costs
associated with these regulatory conditions. Thus, if the preference of the residents of the
Town of Los Gatos is to keep existing small businesses in DLG, then implementing a
regulatory scheme in the N40 that mimics the same procedural requirements for business
operation in DLG would keep the "playing field" even in both locations, and would reduce
the incentive for businesses to move from DLG to the N40. Furthermore, eliminating the
CUP requirements for formula retail in the N40 would provide incentives for formula retail
to locate in the N40. This could possibly create a specialization of sorts for each business
district - DLG would offer smaller, more boutique products for consumers via small
businesses, while the N40 would provide more general merchandise via larger formula
retailers.
Last, a specialization of business types in each location could symbiotically increase total
revenue for each district. Currently, there is an absence of general merchandise retailers in
Los Gatos. If the N40 can offer a combination of general merchandise retailers and large
format retail stores - such as Target and REI - then two possible benefits may arise: (1)
existing resident expenditure on general goods that "leaks" out to other areas could be
reduced, and (2) residents of adjacent communities (e.g., San Jose) may more frequently
decide travel to Los Gatos to shop than in the past. This latter effect could also increase
expenditures in DLG, as some of these new consumers may also choose to frequent DLG to
eat at restaurants or purchase more specialized, boutique products that businesses in DLG
currently offer. As a result, large format and general merchandise retailers are not likely to
present high levels of competition with DLG.
12
Consultant Bio
Ralph McLaughlin is an economist at Trulia, Inc. and collaborates with Trulia's Chief
Economist to produce monthly reports on real estate market trends and user search
behavior. His educational background includes a B.S. in Regional Development from the
University of Arizona and a Ph.D. in Planning, Policy, and Design from the University of
California at Irvine (with a specialization in Urban Economics). He has more than a dozen
publications and research papers in the fields of real estate economics, land use policy, and
industrial geography, and also serves as the Director of the Certificate in Real Estate
Development program at San Jose State University.
13
Appendix 1: Retail and Office Market Listing Examples
Leasing Comparable Example 1:
Use: Retail
Address: 22 S. Santa Cruz Ave
Size: 1498 Sq Ft
Rate: $3.50 NNN
Leasing Comparable Example 2:
Use: Retail
Address: 120 N. Santa Cruz Ave
Size: 5,675 Sq Ft
Rate: $3.65 NNN
120 N.5o Q.,Are% ..'.yN/A
ra.smwau$w. "weannule.v.
14
Leasing Comparable Example 3:
Use: Retail
Address: 32 E. Main Street
Size: 2300 Sq Ft
Rate: $2.75 NNN
Leasing Comparable Example 4:
Use: Retail
Address: 21 W. Main Street
Size: 1400 Sq Ft
Rate: $3.00 NNN
i y
15
Leasing Comparable Example 5:
Use: Office
Address: 20 N. Santa Cruz Ave
Size: 8000 Sq Ft
Rate: $3.50 NNN
20 N. Sonia Cruz AVe. ..
S42.40 ISM r
Leasing Comparable Example 6:
Use: Office
Address: 155 N. Santa Cruz Ave
Size: 6700 Sq Ft
Rate: $2.50 + NNN
DOWNTOWN OFFICE 155 SM® ear
NOETH5 TA CRUZ AV
SUREG
m
liunwnw wnrm w...w.r. a.e.
16