Attachments 39 and 40LNVision That Moves Your Community
Transportation
Consultants
Pleasanton
4305 Hacienda Drive
suite 550
Pleasanton, CA
94588 -2798
925.4610611
925.463.3690 fax
Fresno
516 W. Shaw Avenue
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Fresno, CA
93704 -2515
559325.7530
559.221.4940 fax
Sacramento
980 Ninth Street
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Sacramento, CA
95814 -2736
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Santa Rosa, CA
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707.575.5800
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gkm @gkm.com
www.tjkm.com
December 5, 2014
Mr. Jessy Pu, P.E.
Traffic Engineer
Town of Los Gatos
41 Miles Avenue
Los Gatos, CA 95031
Re: Peer Review of Two Fehr and Peers Draft Memoranda
Dear Jessy:
TJKM has peer reviewed two documents provided by Fehr and Peers related to the North 40
Specific Plan TIA:
December 3, 2014 memorandum "North 40 Specific Plan: Trip Generation Rate
Comparison"
December 4, 2014 memorandum "North 40 Specific Plan TIA: Additional Future Year
Information
Both of these documents were reviewed earlier in draft form by TJKM. It is our opinion that the
updated memos properly address the issues they describe. We have no further suggestions for
change or improvement.
Thank you for the opportunity to provide this peer review. Please contact us if there are any
questions on this matter.
Very truly yours,
61vv, �)- ew��
Chris D. Kinzel, P.E.
Vice President
ATTACHMENT 3 9
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Intentionally
Left Blank
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Executive Summary
Section One: Methodology
Sources of Data 1
Ten Year Projection Methodology 3
Applying Variables to Generate Projections 10
Section Two:
Attendance Matrix
Attendance Matrix
11
K -8 Attendance Matrix
12
Section Three:
Student Population Projection Discussion
Ten Year Projection Summary
13
Map - Elementary SchoolAttendawArrm
14
Section Four:
Student Population Projection A
Ten Year Projection Summary — Projection A
15
ES Attendance Area Projections by Residence A
16
MS Attendance Area Projection by Residence A
16
Section Five:
Student Population Projec '
Ten Year Projection — Projection B
17
FS Attendance Area lecdons by Residence B
18
MS Attendance ection by Residence B
18
Section Six:
Student Pop```'ul�aa ection C
Ten don Summary — Projection C
19
ES Art ce Area Projections by Residence C
20
MS Atten ante Area Projection by Residence C
20
October g, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. TOC
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
INTRODUCTION
The Los Gatos Union School District has contracted with Davis Demographics & Planning,
Inc. (DDP) to update and analyze demographic data relevant to the District's facility
planning efforts. The scope of contracted work includes: mapping the District, address
matching the current student file, developing and researching pertinent demographic data,
identifying future residential development plans and developing a Ten year student
population projection. DDP will then assist the District in developing solutions for housing
future student population. Additionally, this study was prepared to assist the District's
efforts in evaluating future site requirements and attendance area changes.
The purpose of this report is to identify and inform the District of the trends occurring in
the community; how these trends may affect future student population; and to assist in
illustrating facility adjustments that may be necessary to accommodate the potential student
population shifts. The District can then use this information to better plan for the need,
location and timing of facility or boundary adjustments.
The Sources of Data section details where the two sources of data, geographic and non -
geographic, are collected and how each data item is used in the Ten -year student population
projection model.
The Ten Year Projection Methodology sectio ses in detail how the factors used in
the study were calculated and why they were u These factors include: the calculation of
incoming kindergarten classes, additional s rom new housing (referred to as student
yield), the effects of student mobili a detailed review of planned residential
development within the District.
The District Student Resident Pro ction Summary sections review the Fall 2014/15
student resident projection results. Included in these sections are a district wide student
population projection summary and a projected resident student population summary for
each existing attendance area and study area.
While reading this report, it is important to remember that this is a snapshot of current and
potential student population based upon data gathered in Fall 2014/15. Population
demographics change, development plans change, funding opportunities can change, District
priorities can change, and therefore, new projections and adjustments to the overall Master
Plan will continue to be necessary in the future.
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. INTRODUCTION
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. (DDP) is assisting the Los Gatos Union School
District (District) to plan for future student population changes. By factoring current and
historical student data with demographic data and planned residential development, DDP
calculated a ten -year student population projection. This projection is based upon residence
of the students and is designed to alert the District as to when and where student population
shifts will occur. Projection factors, trends and development data is based upon the best
information at the time of the analysis. This information can change quickly and DDP
advises an annual review of projections.
Projection A — No Future Development. — Future kindergarten classes and mobility are
the only factors affecting Projection A.
Projection B — Known and Approved Future Development. — Only development that
has been approved or are likely to happen are included in Projection B. Projects include
Brookside, North Forty, Oak Rim /Blossom Hill, Riviera Terrace and Sister Holy NAmes
Projection C — All Known Future Development. — Projection C includes projects still in
the early planning stages and has not been finalized or approved. The projection includes all
projects included in Projection B plus Elks Lodge, ns, Honda Site, Los Gatos Lodge
and Oka Rd /Lark Ave
October S, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning Inc. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
SOURCES OFDATA
Geographic Map Data
Five geographic data layers were updated for use in the ten -year student population
projections:
1. Street Centerline Database
2. Study Areas
3. Schools
4. Students — Historical and Current
5. Future Residential Development
1) Sheet Centerline Da to
DDP has licensed a digital street centerline map of the School District from Santa
Clara County. The street database has associated attributes that contain, but are not limited
to, the following fields: full street name, address range and street classification
The main function of the streets is in the geocoding process of the student data.
Each student is address matched to the streets by their given address. The geo- coding
process places a point on the map for every studen the exact location of student
residence. This enables DDP to analyze the sAd'atabase t in a geographic manner.
Another vital utilization of the digital is in the construction of study
areas. Freeways, major streets and neighbor) ets are used as boundaries for the study
areas. /�
2 Study Areas
Study areas are small geographic areas and the building blocks of a school district;
they are similar to neighborhoods. Study areas are geographically defined following logical
boundaries of the neighborhood, such as freeways, streets, railroad tracks, rivers, etc. Each
study area is then coded with the elementary, junior high and high school that the area is
assigned to attend. By gathering information at the study area level, a school district can
closely monitor growth and demographic trends in particular regions and spot potential need
for boundary changes or new facilities.
3 Schools
The District provided school facility location information to DDP for the purpose
of mapping the District facilities.
4) Student Data
a. Historical Student Data - Historical enrollment is used to compare past student
population growth and trends as well as the effects of mobility (move -in, move -out
from existing housing) throughout the District. DDP utilized the 3 previous years'
(2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14) address matched students as historical data.
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning Inc. page 1
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
b. Current Student Data - A student data file geocoded approximately October 6h,
2011 summarized by grade level and by study area is used as a base for enrollment
projections. Existing students were categorized by study area through the address matching
process that locates each student within a particular area based upon their given address.
The projections run each of the next ten years from fall 2014 /15 through fall 2024/25.
The Student Accounting Summary (Table 1) indicates the total student enrollment as of July
22, 2014 and the number of students used in the ten year student population projections.
The projection model is based upon student residence and excludes students residing outside
of the District's boundaries, students unable to be address matched and Independent Study
students.
:i Students provided by District h�9 j
�1 q 1
Students Residine out of District
:tobe:s
Planned residential develo
residential units that will be built t
projections. The projected units x
Yield Factor, Table 6, applied to t]
residential development will yield.
Non - Geographic Data
collected to determine the number of new
ear timeframe of the student population
r ext ten years will have the appropriate Student
determine the number of new students planned
Two basic sets of non - geographic data were compiled and reviewed for use in the ten -year
student population projections by residence:
1. Births by Zip Code
2. Mobility Factors
1) Births by Zv 2 Code Data - Birth data by postal zip code was obtained from the
California State Department of Health for the years 1998 -2013 and roughly correlated to the
Los Gatos Union School District. Past changes in historical birthrates are used to estimate
incoming kindergarten student population from existing housing.
Zj AL2 i : Factots - Mobility refers to the increase /decrease in the migration of students
within the District boundaries (move -in /move -out of students from existing housing).
Mobility, similar to a cohort, is applied as a percentage of increase /decrease among each
grade for every year of the projections
October S, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 2
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
TEN YEAR PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
The projection methodology used in this study combines historical student population
figures, past and present demographic characteristics, and planned residential development
to forecast future student population at the study area level. District -wide projections are
summarized from the individual study area projections. These projections are based on
where the students reside and their school of residence. DDP utilizes, the actual
location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in
order to provide the most accurate estimate of where future school facilities should
be located. The best way to plan for future student population shifts is to know where the
next group of students will reside. The following details the methodology used in preparing
the student population projections by residence.
Ten- YearProiections
Projections are calculated out ten years from the date of projection for several reasons. The
planning horizon for any type of facility is typically no less than five years, often longer. Ten
years are sufficient to adequately plan for a student population shift and facility restructuring.
It is a short to midterm solution for planning needs. Projections beyond Ten years are based
on speculation due to the lack of reliable informati o�bn birthrates, new home construction,
economic conditions etc. ��
My FARiecdoas are Calculated b
Typically, school distri ct projections a on enrollment by school. However, this
method is inadequate when used to ca uture school facility requirements, because the
location of the students is not taken in consideration. A school's enrollment can fluctuate
due to variables in the curriculum, program changes, school administration and open
enrollment policies. These variables can skew the apparent need for new or additional
facilities in an area.
The method used by DDP is unique because it modifies a standard cohort projection with
demographic factors and actual student location. DDP bases it's projections on the belief
that school facility planning is more accurate when facilities are located where the
greatest number of students reside.
The best way to plan for future schools is to know where the next group of students will be
coming from. The following details the methodology used in preparing the student
population projections.
1) PA2eWssloa - Each year of the projections, 8th grade students graduate and continuing
students progress through to the next grade level and kindergarten students start school.
This normal progression of students is modified by the following factors:
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics &Planning, Inc. Page 3
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
2) Incomigg Krnde atten — Live birth data, reported to the California State Department
of Health, by the resident postal zip code of the mother is used to project the base incoming
kindergarten class. Additional kindergarten students may be added from future
development. DDP uses birth data by zip code so, if need be, a different birth factor can be
applied to various areas of the District.
Incoming kindergarten classes, for existing homes, are estimated by comparing changes in
past births and kindergarten class enrollment. Table 2 shows the total births for each zip
code in the Los Gatos Union School District from 1998 to 2013. Future kindergarten
classes (2015/16- 2024/25) are estimated by multiplying the existing kindergarten class
(2014/15) by the ratio of the projected year's births to the 2009 births. Assuming that the
fall 2014 /15 kindergarten class was born in 2009, DDP compared the total births in 2009 to
the total births in 2010 to determine a factor for next year's kindergarten class (fall 2015/16).
Similarly, 2O09Owas compared to 2011 (fall 2016/17 K class), 2009 to 2012 (fall 2017/18 K
class) and 2009 to 2013 (Fall 2018/19 K class).
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 4
Correlation Birth and K Class ;B
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Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Repor
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October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning Inc. Page 5
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
4 StudcntMaL&ZFactote - Student mobility factors further refine the ten -year student
population projections. Mobility refers to the increase /decrease in the migration of students
within the District boundary (move -in /move -out of students from existing housing).
Mobility, similar to a cohort, is applied as a percentage to each grade for every year of the
projections.
A net increase or decrease of zero students over time is represented by a factor of 100 %. A
net student loss is represented by a factor less than 100% (1.00) and a net gain by a factor
greater than 100% (1.00) (see example).
Example:
100 K grade students in fall 2014/15
X 1.130% (In Grade mobili-ty Blossom Hill E.S.
113.0 1st Grade students in fall 2015/16
Having historical student data categorized by study area is extremely helpful in calculating
accurate Student Mobility Factors. DDP was able to utilize the last four years' (fall 11/12,
12/13,13/14 and 14/15) student data. The 11/12 student data was compared to 12/13,
12/13 to 13/14, and 13/14 to this year's student data at the Study area level. Grades K -8
Mobility was calculated to correspond with elementary attendance areas.
The sampling used was taken over a four -year peri tudent data from 2011 /12 through
2014/15) and three yearly groupings were talc r example, a comparison was made
for the fall 11/12 K student population to t /131st grade students. This
comparison was also conducted for the f 1 fall 13/14, and the fall 13/14 & fall
14/15 students.
Mobility Method Grades K -8- Useso`ed students provided by SASI download to
DDP. The geocoded data includes regular students that reside in L.G.U.S.D. This method
compares students residing in each attendance area from year to year. A mobility rate is
calculated an applied for each grade in each attendance area.
Table.1 -Mob&l EFactors
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 6
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
4) Planned Residendal Develo went— Planned residential development data is collected
to determine the number of new residential units that will be built over the ten -year time
frame of the student population projections. The projected units within the next ten years
will have the appropriate Student Yield Factor, Table 5, applied to them to determine the
number of new students planned residential development will yield.
This data was obtained through discussions with the planning department of the City of Los
Gatos. A database map of the planned residential development was created, including, when
available, project name, location, housing type, total number of units and estimated move -in
dates (phasing schedule). Projected phasing is based upon occupancy of the unit and is used
to help time the arrival of students from these new developments.
In the student population projection by residence DDP includes all approved and tentative
tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur
within the projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and
phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the
Inforation may change and should be updated annually (see Table 4).
t,...t,_tt.
= •• •- SFD
- SFD
SFD
SFD
MFA
WYFA
• APT
SFD
94,
Active
Plannir.
Planing
1_'S
4
64
53
90
Recently applied for permits
11
170
274.ol.rnning
46
Pfrnr +ing
P "i nning
- Planning
E70A
2 yeah away if approved
22
Inactive
Off the hooks for now
• MFA
• SFD
- - APT
- - SFD
36
Inactive
56
Off the books for now
23
Inactive
56
Off the books for now
50
17
Active
Active
103
137
Adding units to existing apt complex
Table 4- Planned Residendal lopmeat
Note: The development Est includes projects that occupancy will begin in the ten year time period of the enrollment projections. Some
future projects may not be included if they do not fall in this time Frame. Total Units reflect the number of approved units for the project
not the remaining units to be built Some projects, such as Oka Rd /lark Ave, may not happen at all.
October B, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. page 7
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
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i.os Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
5) Student Yteld Factors —10 YestEwjccdons -Closely related to the planned residential
development units are Student Yield Factors. The Student Yield Factors, when applied to
planned residential development units, determine how many additional students will be
generated from new construction within the District.
mpietea
Table 5— Stu den t /Yi!ta Factors
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 9
35
17
5 22
0.486
0.143
0.629
54
70
40
14
5 45
8 22
0.741
0.200
0.093
0.114
0.833
0.314
338
64
12 76
0.189
0.036
0.225
22
9
3 12
0.409
0.136
0.545
25
5
1 6
1 0.200 1
0.040
0.240
19
9
6 15
0.474
0.316
0.789
fl06
559
42
200
18 60
58 258
0.396
0.299
0.170
0.087
0.566
0.386
mpietea
Table 5— Stu den t /Yi!ta Factors
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 9
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
APPLYING THE VARIABLES TO GENERATE THE PROTECTIONS
The following paragraphs summarize how DDP uses the factors to determine the student
population projections. Remember that these projections are based on residence.
The Los Gatos Union School District has been divided into 118 study areas and each study
area is coded for the elementary, junior high and high school attendance area in which it fall.
The residential projections are calculated at the study area level. This means that DDP
conducts 118 individual projections that are based upon the number of students residing in
each study area.
The first step in calculating these projections involve listing the number of students that live
in a particular study area by each individual grade (kindergarten through 8th grade). The
current student base (Fall 2014/15) is then passed onto the next year's grade (2014/15's K
become 2015/16's V graders, 2014/15's 1" graders become 2015/16's 2 "d graders, and so
on). After the natural progression of students through the grades is applied, then Birth
Factors are multiplied by the current kindergarten class to generate a base for the following
year's kindergarten class.
Next, a Mobility Factor is applied to all grades. Again, these factors take into account the
natural in /out migration of students throughout thekbistrict.
The last essential layer applied to the proj
residential development. This is a simple
where the estimated number of new ho
appropriate Student Yield Factors. Fo
are to be built in a specific study ar n
(100) by the SFD K -5 student yield fa 1
divided evenly among the seven grades
ctions with additional students from planned
,al a
gain conducted at the study area level,
, is for a particular year is multiplied by the
K , if 100 single family detached (SFD) units
en year, then you would multiply this number
(.40) and the resulting number of students 40.0.) is
To finish generating the projections by residence, the same process is conducted for each of
the 118 study areas. Once the projections have been run at the study area level, then it is
simple addition to determine projections for each of the District's attendance areas or for a
district -wide summary. For example, the student population projections for Blossom Hill
Elementary School are simply the summary of all of the study areas that make up this
specific attendance area.
The District Summary for the projections (Section 3) is a total summary of all 118 study
areas, which excludes all of the students that attend a District school but live completely
outside of the District's boundaries, are unmatched due to incorrect address information and
independent study students. These out -of- district, unmatched and independent study
students are factored back into the projections by simply adding the existing totals in at the
bottom of the projections (please see the Attendance Matrices in Section 2 for a breakdown
of the out -of- district, unmatched and independent study students by school). DDP adds the
current total out -of- district, unmatched students and independent study students to each
year of the projections because there is no way to accurately forecast these students in the
future.
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 10
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
ATTENDANCEMATRIX
Three attendance matrices have been included to provide a better understanding of where
students reside and where they attend school. Remember, DDP projections are based
upon where the students reside, not where they attend school. DDP uses the actual
location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in
order to provide the most accurate prediction of future facilities adjustments.
Therefore, since the projections are based upon where the students reside, the figures used
as a base for each school's resident projection may differ from the actual reported
enrollment for each school.
These attendance matrices act as a check and balance for student accounting. They show
where the students reside (in what School of Residence) based upon our address matching
capabilities and what school they attend (School of Attendance) based upon data in the
student file supplied by the District. The inclusion of these matrices is essential to showing
how the students used in the projections match up to the District's records of enrollment for
each school. The best way to plan for future facilities changes is to know where the next
group of students will be residing, not necessarily which school they are currently attending.
READING THE MATRIX
Looking at the K -8 Attendance Matrix below, let's b 'n with Blossom Hill ES as an
example. Following down the first column with ossom Hill ES heading, there are 601
students who attend Blossom Hill ES and resid he lossom Hill ES attendance area.
Continuing downward, 23 students attend Bls Hill ES that resides in the Daves Avenue
ES attendance area. Next the matrix sho th students attend Blossom Hill ES and reside
in Lexington's attendance area, and so
The row Unmatched refers to studen)nable to be geocoded, there is 1 unmatched student
attending Blossom Hill ES. Out of District refers to students who live completely outside of
the Los Gatos Union School District, but attend one of the District's schools. There are 5
Out of District students attending Blossom Hill ES. Total Enrollment shows the total
number of students attending a school regardless of where they reside, and reflects the
District's enrollment counts for each school. There are a total of 669 students attending
Blossom Hill ES.
The next step is to read across the matrix, beginning with the Blossom Hill ES attendance
area row. We understand that the 588 represents the total number of students that reside in
the Blossom Hill ES attendance area and attend Blossom Hill ES. The next column, Daves
Avenue ES, refers to the number of students that reside in the Blossom Hill ES attendance
area, but attend Daves Avenue ES. There are currently 24 students that reside in the
Blossom Hill ES attendance area and attend Daves Avenue ES.
The Total Residence column is the total number of students living in each particular
attendance area. There are 696 K -5 students residing in the Blossom Hill ES attendance area.
The Total Attendance row is the actual number of students used as the base or actual
number for each attendance area in the Fall 2014/15 projections
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planting, Inc. Page 11
Los Gatos Union School District
DRAFT 2014/15
i . 601
24
5
66
696
95
13.60/6
23
9
30
506
17
22
2
137
12
44
19
522
575
182
586
69
45
64
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24.7%
10.9%
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1,231
1
1
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6
5
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16
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578
157
670
1,245
3,319
67
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71
12.3%
19
12.1%
145
21.6%
14
11%
0.0%
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 12
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
TEN YEAR PROfECTIONSUMMAR7FS
Finally, the student population is projected out ten years for each of the study areas and for
the entire Los Gatos Union School District. The District Wide projection summaries enable
the District to see a broad overview of future student population and what impact this
population will have on existing facilities. The study area listings enable the District to
monitor student population growth or decline in smaller geographic areas within the District.
At any point in time, study areas and their projected resident students can be shifted between
schools to assist in balancing enrollment changes. Together, these projection summaries
present the means to identify the timing of student arrivals and overall facility requirements,
as well as location in order to accommodate the District's expected population shift.
Due to uncertainty in future residential development and after discussions with District Staff
it was decided to calculate four sets of projections. The four different projections will
provide a range of forecasts that should prepare the district for the future.
Projection A — No Future Development. — Future kindergarten classes and mobility are
the only factors affecting Projection A.
Projection B — Known and Approved
has been approved or are likely to happc
Brookside, North Forty, Oak Rim /Blo&
ppment. — Only development that
in Projection B. Projects include
ra Terrace and Sister Holy NAmes
Projection C —All Known Future ment. — Projection C indudes projects still in
the early planning stages and has no in
or approved. The projection includes all
projects included in Projection B plus ks Lodge, Higgins, Honda Site, Los Gatos Lodge
and Oka Rd /Lark Ave
Ocmber 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Mr. Page 13
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
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Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
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October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 15
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
School Proiections by Residence - Proiectio
Attendance Area
Blossom Hill ES
Projection Date
9/24/2014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2D21
2D22
2023
2024
K
85.0
04.6
94.e
B1.4
B2.3
B1.4
81.4
81.4
B1.4
81.4
81.4
1
92.0
96.0
95.6
107.1
92.0
93.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
92.0
2
110.0
103.0
107.6
107.1
120.0
103.0
104.2
103.0
103.0
103.0
103.0
3
139.0
115.5
108.2
113.0
112.5
126.D
108.2
109.4
108.2
108.2
108.2
4
131.0
151.5
125.9
117.9
123.1
122.6
137.3
117.9
119.3
117.9
117.9
5
139.0
141.5
163.6
136.0
127.4
133.D
132.4
148.3
127.3
128.E
127.3
11-5
696.0
692.1
695.7
662.5
657.3
659.0
655.5
652.0
631.2
631.3
629.E
Attendance Area
Daves Avenue ES
Projection
Date
9/24/2014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2011
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
B2.0
82.7
81.6
77.9
78.2
77.9
77.9
77.9
77.9
77.9
77.9
1
B5.D
02.8
83.5
B2.4
76.7
70.9
78.7
7B.7
78.7
78.7
78.7
2
92.D
93.5
91.1
91.9
90.7
86.5
86.8
66.5
86.5
efi.S
66.5
3
101.D
92.9
94.4
92.0
92.B
91.6
67.4
67.7
B7.4
87.4
87.4
4
109.0
107.1
9B.5
100.1
97.5
98.4
97.1
92.7
93.0
92.7
92.7
5
106.0
121.1
119.9
110.3
112.1
109.2
110.2
100.7
103.8
104.1
1D3.8
K -5
575.0
501.1
569.0
554.6
550.0
542.5
538.1
532.2
527.3
527.3
527.0
Attendance Ana
Lexington
ES Projection
Date 9124/2014
ACTUAL.
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
20le
2011t
2020
2021
2022
2D23
2024
K
27.0
25.2
28.5
29.0
28.7
2
31.2
31.4
32.2
33.2
33.8
1
32.0
25.6
24.0
27.1
27.6
28.4
29.6
29.8
30.5
31.5
2
33.0
32.3
25.9
24.2
27.4
27.5
2e.7
29.9
30.1
30.6
3
27.0
34.0
33.3
26.7
24.9
28.7
28.4
29.5
30.E
31.0
4
20.0
28.9
36.4
3516
66
7
30.1
30.7
30.3
31.6
33.0
5
43.0
20.e
30.0
37.E
�28
29.7
27.8
31.4
31.9
31.6
32.9
K -5
182.0
166.8
178.1
leD.4�
169.7
173.7
180.2
183.6
le7.8
193.0
Attendance Area
Van Meter
ES Projection
Date 9124/2014
ACTUAL
PAOJEC7iD RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2D15
2016
2D17
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
7E.0
78.3
61.9
74.1
74.6
74.1
74.1
74.1
74.1
74.1
74.1
1
92.D
86.6
86.9
9D.9
82.3
e2.9
82.3
82.3
82.3
02.3
62.3
2
92.0
94.8
89.2
89.5
93.7
84.7
65.3
B4.7
84.7
84.7
64.7
3
95.0
99.4
102.3
96.3
96.6
101.1
91.5
92.2
91.5
91.5
91.5
4
116.0
1D1.6
106.3
109.5
103.1
103.4
106.2
97.9
98.6
97.9
97.9
5
113.0
117.2
102.7
107.4
110.6
104.1
104.4
109.3
9B.9
99.6
9e.9
K -5
5B6.D
577.9
569.3
567.7
560.9
55D.3
545.8
540.5
530.1
530.1
529.4
Attendance Area
Ra9essnd J
Fisher
MS Projection Date 9/24/2014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2DI5
2016
2017
2D16
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
272.0
27D.0
286.8
262.4
263.8
263.3
264.6
264.8
265.5
266.6
267.2
1
301.0
291.1
290.0
307.6
280.5
262.1
281.3
282.5
282.7
283.5
289.4
2
327.0
323.6
313.0
312.7
331.7
302.2
303.9
303.0
3D4.2
304.4
305.1
3
362.0
341.8
338.3
328.0
326.8
346.9
315.e
517.6
316.6
317.9
318.1 -
4
376.0
389.1
367.1
363.2
352.3
351.1
372.8
339.2
341.2
340.1
341.4
5
401.0
401.5
416.2
391.5
387.1
376.0
374.e
397.7
361.9
364.1
362.E
6
399.0
427.0
427.2
443.0
416.8
412.2
400.2
398.9
423.3
385.3
387.6
7
406.0
411.7
441.3
441.0
456.1
430.7
425.7
413.4
412.0
437.5
39e.1
8
426.0
421.7
428.8
457.5
458.9
474.6
446.7
442.0
429.2
427.9
453.E
K -5
2039.0
2017.9
2012.2
1965.4
1942.2
1921.6
1913.2
1904.8
1872.1
1676.6
1879.0
6 -8
1231.0
126D.4
1297.3
1341.5
1333.8
1317.5
1272.6
1254.3
1264.5
1250.7
1239.5
Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries.
October, 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 16
Los Gatos Union School District
DRAFT 2014/15
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October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 17
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 17
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
School Proiections by $fence - Proiecdon B
Attendants Area Blossom Bill ES
Projection Date
9/2412014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
85.0
84.6
99.D
B3.7
B4.6
83.7
83.7
83.7
83.7
B3.7
83.7
1
92.0
96.0
100.4
111.9
94.6
95.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
2
110.0
103.0
112.3
112.5
125.3
105.9
107.1
105.9
105.9
105.9
105.9
3
139.0
115.5
112.6
117.9
118.1
131.6
111.2
112.4
111.2
111.2
111.2
4
131.0
151.5
13D.5
122.2
128.5
128.7
143.4
121.2
122.6
121.2
121.2
5
139.0
141.5
168.2
141.0
132.6
138.E
139.0
154.9
130.9
132.4
130.9
K -5
696.0
692.1
723.0
689.8
683.7
684.3
679.0
672.7
648.9
649.0
647.5
Attendance Area
Davey Avenue ES
Projection Data
9/24/2014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
82.0
84.8
82.E
79.0
79.3
79.0
79.0
79.0
79.0
79.0
79.0
1
85.0
85.0
e5.7
B3.6
79.8
80.1
79.8
79.8
79.8
79.8
79.8
2
92.0
95.B
93.5
94.3
92.0
87.E
88.1
87.E
e7.8
87.8
B7.B
3
101.0
95.1
96.8
94.4
95.2
92.9
88.7
B9.0
88.7
BB.7
88.7
4
109.0
109.3
im a
102.6
100.1
100.9
98.4
94.0
94.3
94.0
94.0
5
106.0
124.5
122.4
112.9
114.9
112.1
113.0
110.3
105.3
105.7
105.3
K -5
575.0
594.5
582.0
566.8
561.3
552.8
547.0
539.9
534.9
535.0
534.6
Attendance Area
Lexington ES Projection
Date 9/24/2014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
27.0
25.2
2B.5
29.0
21.7
2
31.2
31.4
32.2
33.2
33.8
1
32.0
25.6
24.0
27.1
27.6
28.4
29.6
29.8
30.5
31.5
2
33.0
32.3
25.9
24.2
27.4
27.5
26.7
29.9
30.1
30.8
3
27.0
34.0
33.3
26.7
24.9 _2
"
28.7
28.4
29.5
30.8
31.0
4
2D.0
28.9
36.4
35.6
28.6
30.1
30.7
3D.3
31.6
33.0
5
43.0
20.8
30.0
37.e
29.7
27.8
31.4
31.9
31.6
32.9
K -5
182.0
- 166.8
178.1
180.4
169.7
173.7
100.2
183.6
ie7.e
193.D
Attendance Area Van Meter ES Projection
Da 9/2412014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
201e
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
78.0
78.3
83.9
79.3
82.0
82.8
B3.4
82.4
82.4
02.4
82.4
1
92.0
86.6
89.0
97.7
92.5
94.6
94.2
92.6
91.5
91.5
91.5
2
92.0
94.8
91.2
96.0
104.8
98.6
99.6
97.0
95.3
94.2
94.2
3
95.0
99.4
104.5
103.0
108.1
116.7
108.8
107.5
104.8
103.0
101.E
4
116.0
101.6
108.4
116.2
114.5
119.0
127.1
116.4
115.1
112.1
110.2
5
113.0
117.2
104.7
113.7
121.5
110.9
122.4
128.3
117.5
116.2
113.3
K -5
586.0
577.9
501.7
605.9
623.4
630.6
635.5
624.2
606.6
599.4
593.4
Attendants Area Raymond
J Fisher
MS Projection Be" 9/2412014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
203e
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2D24
K
272.D
273.0
294.2
271.1
274.6
275.4
277.3
276.5
277.3
278.3
279.0
1
301.0
293.3
299.1
320.3
294.5
297.5
297.0
296.6
295.7
296.4
297.4
2
327.0
326.0
322.9
326.9
349.5
320.2
322.3
319.4
319.0
318.1
310.8
3
362.0
343.9
347.2
342.0
346.3
369.3
337.4
331.3
334.2
333.7
332.7
4
376.0
391.4
376.1
377.2
371.7
375.4
399.1
362.3
362.3
359.0
358.4
5
401.D
403.9
425.3
405.4
406.0
399.5
402.2
424.9
385.7
3e5.B
382.3
6
399.0
429.3
436.4
457.1
435.9
435.7
427.4
428.0
452.1
410.5
410.6
7
406.0
414.0
447.7
454.2
476.3
453.6
452.0
441.3
441.8
467.1
423.9
a
426.0
423.9
435.2
468.1
476.6
497.4
473.2
469.9
458.8
459.5
485.2
K -5
2039.0
2031.5
2064.e
2042.9
2042.6
2037.3
2035.3
2017.0
1974.2
1971.3
1968.6
6 -B
1231.0
1267.2
1319.3
1379.4
13ee.e
1386.7
1352.6
1339.2
1352.7
1337.1
1319.7
Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries.
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 18
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
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October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 19
Los Gatos Union School District DRAFT 2014/15 Projection Report
pool P2oiections by Residence - Proiecdon
Atte4Wanee Area
Blossom Hill ES
Projection Data
9/24/2014
ACTUAL
PROIECfFL RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
202D
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
85.0
84.6
99.0
83.7
84.6
B3.7
03.7
83.7
63.7
83.7
83.7
1
92.0
96.0
10D.4
111.9
94.6
9516
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
94.6
2
110.0
103.0
112.3
112.5
125.3
105.9
107.1
105.9
105.9
105.9
105.9
3
139.0
115.5
112.6
117.9
118.1
131.6
111.2
112.4
111.2
111.2
111.2
4
131.0
151.5
130.5
122.0
128.5
128.7
143.4
121.2
122.6
121.2
121.2
5
139.0
141.5
168.2
141.6
132.6
138.8
139.0
154.9
130.9
132.4
130.9
K -5
696.0
692.1
723.0
689.8
683.7
684.3
679.0
672.7
648.9
649.0
647.5
Attendance Area
Davea Avenue ES
Projection
Date
9/24/2014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2D15
2016
2017
2018
2019
202D
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
82.0
84.B
82.8
79.0
79.3
79.0
79.0
79.0
79.0
79.0
79.0
1
85.0
95.0
85.7
ES.6
79.6
80.1
79.8
79.8
79.8
79.B
79.E
2
92.0
95.8
93.5
94.3
92.0
87.E
88.1
87.8
07.B
87.8
e7.8
3
101.0
95.1
96.E
94.4
95.2
92.9
8E.7
89.0
88.7
88.7
88.7
4
109.0
109.3
100.8
102.6
100.1
100.9
98.4
94.0
94.3
94.0
94.0
5
106.0
124.5
122.4
112.9
114.9
112.1
113.0
110.3
105.3
105.7
105.3
X -5
575.0
594.5
582.0
566.E
561.3
552.8
547.0
539.9
534.9
535.0
534.6
Attendance Area
Lexington ES Pmjemim
Data 9124/2D14
ACTUAL.
PR2017 B RESIDENT Si
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
201
2020
2021
2022
2023
2034
K
27.0
25.2
2B.5
29.0
28.7
2
31.2
31.4
32.2
33.2
33.8
1
$2.0
25.6
24.0
27.1
27.6
28.4
29.6
29.8
30.5
31.5
2
33.0
32.3
25.9
24.2
27.4
27.5
2e.7
29.9
30.1
30.8
3
27.0
34.0
33.3
26.7
24.9
2e.7
28.4
29.5
30.8
31.0
9
20.0
20.9
36.4
35.6
2
.7
30.1
30.7
30.3
31.6
33.0
5
93.0
20.0
30.0
97.8
29.7
27.8
31.4
31.9
31.6
32.9
K -5
182.0
166.8
178.1
10D.4� r
169.7
173.7
180.2
163.6
107.8
193.0
Attendance Area
Van Meter ES Projection Date 9124/2014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2014
2015
2016
2017
2016
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
78.0
78.3
03.9
79.3
82.0
02.9
83.4
82.4
92.4
82.4
82.4
1
92.0
B6.6
89.0
97.7
92.5
94.6
94.2
92.6
91.5
91.5
91.5
2
92.0
94.e
91.2
96.0
104.8
98.6
99.6
97.0
95.3
94.2
94.2
3
95.0
99.4
104.5
103.0
108.1
116.7
108.0
107.5
104.E
103.0
101.8
4
116.0
101.6
108.4
116.2
114.5
119.0
127.1
116.4
115.1
112.1
110.2
5
113.0
117.2
104.7
113.7
121.5
118.9
122.4
12e.3
117.5
116.2
113.3
K -5
586.0
577.9
5E1.7
605.9
623.4
630.6
635.5
624.2
606.6
599.4
593.4
Attendance Area
Raymond
J Fisher
MS Projection Date 9/24/2014
ACTUAL
PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS
2D14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
K
272.0
273.0
294.2
271.1
274.6
275.4
277.3
276.5
277.3
278.3
279.0
1
301.0
293.3
299.1
320.3
294.5
297.5
297.0
296.6
295.7
296.4
297.4
2
327.0
326.0
322.9
326.9
349.5
32D.2
322.3
319.4
319.0
318.1
31e.e
3
362.0
343.9
347.2
342.0
346.3
369.3
337.4
337.3
334.2
333.7
332.7
4
376.0
391.4
376.1
377.2
371.1
375.4
399.1
362.3
362.3
359.0
358.4
5
401.0
403.9
425.3
405.4
406.0
399.5
402.2
424.9
385.7
385.0
382.3
6
399.D
429.3
436.4
457.1
435.9
435.7
427.4
428.D
452.1
41D.5
410.6
7
406.0
414.0
447.7
454.2
476.3
453.6
452.0
441.3
441.8
467.1
423.9
B
426.D
423.9
435.2
468.1
476.6
497.4
473.2
469.9
45e.e
459.5
405.2
K -5
2039.0
2031.5
2064.8
2042.9
2042.6
2037.3
2035.3
2017.0
1974.2
1971.3
1968.6
6 -e
1231.0
1267.2
1319.3
1379.4
13B8.e
13e6.7
1352.6
1339.2
1352.7
1337.1
1319.1
Does not include students residing outside of the L.G.U.S.D. boundaries.
October 8, 2014 Davis Demographics & Planning Inc. Page 20