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09 Staff Report - Draft Expenditure Plan~pW N pF COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT !ps • G A:~pS DATE: January 30, 2006 MEETING DATE: 2/6/06 ITEM NO. 9 TO: MAYOR AND TOWN COUNCIL FROM: DEBRA J. FIGONE, TOWN MANAGER SUBJECT: VALLEY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY PRESENTATION ON DRAFT EXPENDITURE PLAN DESCRIPTION: The Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) will provide a presentation on a Draft Revenue and Expenditure Plan that assumes a new 30-year, quarter-cent sales tax. The VTA and Cupertino Council member Dolly Sandoval, the West Valley cities VTA representative, are requesting that the Town Council provide comments on the Draft Plan. Based upon projections by the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, VTA now expects that all Measure A projects can be completed should the sales tax measure pass. This includes in the extension of the Vasona Light Rail Line to Los Gatos. Under the Draft Plan, the extension would be completed by 2012. The VTA will provide more details on the Expenditure Plan in their presentation. A copy of the VTA Board Memorandum on the Plan is attached (Attachment 1) as well as their presentation slides (Attachment 2). RECOMMENDATION: VTA is not requesting that Council endorse a sales tax measure at this time. VTA and the Town's VTA representative are requesting that Council provide feedback on the Draft Plan assuming a quarter-cent sales tax measure is approved by the voters. Staff recommends that any comments be provided as a consensus of the Council. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT: Is not a project defined under CEQA and no further action is required. PREPARED BY: Bud N. LortzA Co nrty Development Director Reviewed by: Assistant Town Manager /Town Attorney Clerk Administrator ~uFinance~ Community Development Revised: 1/31/06 3:33 pm Reformatted: 5/30/02 PAGE 2 MAYOR AND TOWN COUNCIL SUBJECT: VALLEY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY PRESENTATION ON DRAFT EXPENDITURE PLAN Feburary 6, 2006 FISCAL IMPACT: None Attachments: 1. VTA Board Memorandum dated December 23, 2005 2. VTA Presentation dated January 2006 Distribution: Scott Haywood, VTA, 3331 N. First Street, Bldg. B, San Jose, CA 95134-1937 Randy Tsuda, Assistant Community Development Director NADEV\RANDY\Town Council\VTA 2030 TC REPORT 041805.wpd sr;r~rF: crP.~ a Voila Tra"sp rtaflan Authority Date Committee Meeting Date: December 23.2005_ N/A Board Meeting Date: February 2, 2046 BOARD MEMORANDUM ACTION X DISCUSSION INL F10 TO: Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority Board of Directors THR0tT[.YrT: Michael T. Burns lptud General Manager t FPtiOM. Jack .1. Collins Chief Construction Officer SUBJECT, Recoanmended VTA Quarter Cant Sales Tax Soonari:o RECOMMENDATION,- Adopt the VTA 2000 M- easure A Transit Program with a Revenue and Expendirare Plan that assumes a new 30-year, quarter-cent wiles tax 5uppoiting the construction and operation of the 2000 Measure A Projects and soine new projects and program%_ BACKGROUND: In considering; the recornmeazded a.ew 30=year, quarter-cent sales tax, the Board will recall its adopted policy based upon the recommendation of the Ad floc Financial Stability Committee, and the. Adininistration and Fiaaance Ccam.ni ttee. The V TA Financial Stability Strategy, presented by Ad-Hoc Connntnittee co-chairs Don Gage and David Cortese, as approved on March 4.20041 established (annong others) the following as a Mid-Term to Long-Tenn Goal: Work in partnership with community leaders to identify the nnost viable new or expanded revenue source(s) for VTA. Confinue public input and data gathering in partnership with community leaders and stakeholders to help define the revenue source(s) and timing most acceptable to the community. The Board of nirect:ors has entertained a series of workshop meetings over the last two yeanq considedng options for an expenditure plan that will meet the financial needy of VTA and the 2004 Measure A program of projects. At the June 2, 2005, Board Meeting, staffreviewed. four quarter-cent sales tax scenarios. Prior to the June. 16`h Board Meeting, Board Mennher Ron Gomnles outli7ied assumptions in a naewora.n.dum that resulted in direction tv staff to develop a Quarter-Cent Sales. Tax. Scenario teased on those assumptions. Tluoughautthe summer, the '13"! a p.Crfli Firti iT[C?i . Ssa 1G:50~ 0. 4~13~t..r4r.,' °:GI'ri[ila1rQ`li}r't =i(iU'? 1.3:7:'5 • v irz Attachment 1 Board and community stakeholders provided input, and the North County City Group and the Silicon Valley Leadership Group (SVLG) both requested additional scenarios. The SVLG requested a run that better reflected its polling conducted in March 2005. The polling tested anew Pavement Management Program and increases to bus, rail and senior/disabled services. The Board, at its workshop meeting on September lb, 2005, reviewed three proposed Quarter-Cent Sales Tax Scenarios and concluded that VTA is ready to go forward with a Quarter-Cent sales tax that will sunset in 30 years. The Board fiutther agreed that this quarter-cent sales tax should include a Pavement Management Program, a re-scheduling ofthe BART project for completion no later than 2018, completion of Dumbarton Rail by 2011, and flexibility in terms of capital balance amounts for the 2000 Measure A program. The VTA Scenario was originally scheduled for Board adoption at the November 3rd meeting. Based on comments from community interests and local jurisdictions, staff recognized the need for additional evaluation to allow for more analysis and open dialogue on this program of projects. Specifically, we evaluated potential ways to advance the airport people mover into the Initial Program by 2018, while keeping the Pavement Management Program in place. On December 1, 2005, VTA presented a Modified VTA Scenario to the Board of Directors that achieved the goal of moving the airport people mover into the Initial Program. At that time, the City of San Jose also presented a series of recommended changes to the Modified VTA Scenario. The Board of Directors was concerned that the VTA staff and the City of San Jose recommendations had not been evaluated or reviewed through the committee process. As a result, the Board deferred action until February 2006, giving itself, the VTA Advisory Committees, and the County Board of Supervisors an opportunity to discuss and weigh VTA's modified plan and the recommendations submitted by the City of San Jose. DISCUSSION Armual Update to Sales Tax Forecast As part of an annual process that started in 2002, the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE) prepared updated projections of taxable sales for VTA, which staff has been reviewing since the December 1St Board meeting. The revised projections, which are independently derived, indicate an increase in projected sales tax revenues. These new projections are critical to the Board's deliberations and appropriately, staff has prepared yet another scenario for the Board to consider. The immediate result of using the new sales tax data is that all Measure A projects can be completed in the Initial Program, subject to a proposed quarter-cent sales tax passing in 2006. The fact that these annual updates show an upward cycle in Silicon Valley economic activity after a sustained downward cycle underscores the importance of an annual review of the 2000 Measure A Revenue and Expenditure Plan, thereby allowing the Board to evaluate and revise priorities as conditions change. It also illustrates the dynamic nature of both the revenue and cost elements of the Expenditure Plan. An annual review process has contributed to the Page 2 of 7 successful completion of projects in the 1996 Measure B Transportation Improvement Program that, at one time, were not anticipated to be funded. To remain consistent with previous expenditure plans submitted for Board consideration, VTA has used the midpoint of CCSCE's conservative and moderate levels of projections. The projections for the Recommended VTA Scenario include FY 2006 and FY 2007 adopted budgeted amounts for sales tax revenue, followed by annual growth rates determined from CCSCE's latest projections through 2015. Beyond 2015, VTA has continued to use a 4.8% annual growth rate, which is consistent with VTA's historical growth, with adjustments for abnormally large increases and decreases. The projections of taxable sales are based on: • Job growth • Population growth • Personal income growth • Retail spending as a share of personal income • Non-retail spending per job The average annual growth rate for taxable sales in the current forecast has increased from an average annual growth rate of 4.8% to 5.8% between FY 2008 and FY 2015. The reason for the increase is due to several key factors. According to CCSCE: (a) commuting from outside the county has fallen, which increases the number of residents contributing to taxable sales within the county; (b) average earnings per job continue to reflect increases; and (c) there is a slight increase in projections for the percentage of personal income that will be spent on taxable sales. The following table illustrates the change in sales tax revenue growth rates using the midpoint of CCSCE's previous 2004 projections (through 2010) and CCSCE's new 2005 projections (through 20151). Change in Midpoint Projected Growth Rates 2004 2005 Chance 2008 4.9% 5.7% 0.8% 2009 5.0% 5.7% 0.7% 2010 5.0% 5.8% 0.8% 2011 4.8% 5.8% 1.0% 2012 4.8% 5.8% 1.0% 2013 4.8% 5.9% 1.1% 2014 4.8% 5.9% 1.1% 2015 4.8% 6.0% 1.2% 2016-20361 4.8% 4.8% 0% The updated forecast of sales tax revenues increases 2000 Measure A sales tax projections by $700 million over the life of the program. However, the updated projections also affect VTA's 'Beyond the end date of CCSCE's projections (2010 in 2004 and 2015 in 2005), VTA utilized 4.8% as the annual growth rate, based on historical growth, and adjusted for abnormally large increases and decreases. Page 3 of 7 existing half-cent sales tax, VTA's Transportation Development Act (FDA) funds and the projections related to the proposed new quarter-cent sales tax. Taking into consideration these four sources of funds, there is an increase of over $ 2 billion, which has resulted in a significant change to the proposed expenditure plan. While these new projections are auspicious, it is important to note that the expenditure plan would have been revised downward if the new projections were below the previously assumed 2004 levels. Summary of the Projects and Timelines in the Recommended VTA Scenario: In using the new sales tax forecast from the CCSCE, many of the suggestions presented by the City of San Jose for the VTA Expenditure Plan on December 1, 2005, can be accommodated. The following is a brief staff response to the seven recommendations presented by the City of San Jose. Accelerate the construction schedule of BART before 2018 but no sooner than 2015 by making it the first funding priority if and when: a) Measure A and/or revenues from any 2006 tax measure exceed projections; b) new revenue sources are identified; or c) there are Measure A project cost savings. In the Recommended VTA Scenario, the BART to Silicon Valley project is assumed to be completed in December 2016, which is the current optimum schedule for final design and construction. 2. Move the people mover into the initial program regardless of when it may be constructed. In the Recommended VTA Scenario, the people mover is in the Initial Program and is assumed to be completed by 2018 without City of San Jose assistance in financing There is a s gnificantamount ofwork that still needs to be done prior to a final decision on the people mover technology and routing. This, too, will be considered during the annual reviews of the Expenditure Plan. 3. After the public review processes have been completed, amend the expenditure plan to include the fully funded preferred transit mode for the Alum Rock-S anta Clara corridor in the initial program with a concurrent commitment to construct the project consistent with the construction schedule for BART. If Single Car Light Rail is selected as the preferred mode and assuming a completion date of2021, this project can now be accommodated in the Initial Program using the new revenue assumptions. 4. Commit to complete the construction of the Capitol Light Rail to Eastridge proj ect by 2012. Capitol Expressway LfghtRail project to Eastrfdge can now be completed by December 2012 and LightRail from Eastrfdge to Nieman by 2017. Page 4 of 7 5. Retain funding for the Caltrain electrification project and re-allocate funding to other Measure A projects throughout the region that are ready for construction -except BART - if San Francisco and San Mateo counties have not secured their shares by 2016. Staff views this as a Board policy issue. However, with annual updates to the Revenue and Expenditure Plan, it appears unnecessary for the Board to adopt a 2016 deadline at this time. The Recommended VTA Scenario completes the initial phase of Caltrain Improvements/Electr f cation by 2018 and restores the 10% budget reduction contemplated in the previous scenario. The previously deferred Caltrain Electrification from Tamien to Gilroy is also included in the Initial Program by 2018. 6. Support the VTA proposal for an annual review of the Expenditure Plan to allow flexibility to strategically respond to changing circumstances, needs and priorities. This is consistent with staff's recommendation. 7. Develop a "reward policy" for local agencies that use local and/or private development funds to implement regional transportation projects and thereby granting priority for such agencies for other regional funding allocations. Staff is supportive of this idea in concept. It is recommended that VTA staffworkwith the Technical Advisory Committee to develop apolicy for further consideration by the Board. A summary of the capital and operating program elements of the Recommended VTA Scenario follows: o A new 30-year, quarter-cent sales tax o Maintains VTA's operating reserves at 15% for 30 years o All projects are included in the Initial Program and the ending balance is $ 537 million o No deferred projects in the Completion Program o Provides operating assistance at 18.457% on annual 2000 Measure A sales tax revenue to fund existing VTA bus, rail and paratransit service o Estimates total net bond proceeds required for the program at $ 6.1 billion o Completes BART by December 2016 o Phases in BART revenue service and the purchase of BART vehicles in order to improve cash flow and funding requirements. This phased service would start with 15-minute peak headways from 2016 to 2025 at a 16% savings to the net operating subsidy. This operating plan is preliminary and will require the review of BART and may require adjustments for new ridership forecasts o Provides for an initial car order of 119 BART vehicles, with a second procurement of 47 vehicles by 2030 when 6-minute peak headways would begin o Includes $ 913 million YOE or $ 450 million in $ 2005) in additional cost for BART vehicles, parking impacts and escalation associated with the new ridership forecast for year 2030 o Provides $ 2.7 billion in BART to Silicon Valley operating subsidy through 2037 o Completes Capitol Expressway Light Rail to Eastridge by December 2012 o Completes Capitol Expressway Light Rail to Nieman by 2021 Page 5 of 7 o Accommodates Single Car Light Rail on Santa Clara/Alum Rock by 2021, if that mode is eventually selected as the preferred alternative o Completes the initial phase of Caltrain Improvements/Electrification by 2018 and restores the 10% budget reduction contemplated in the previous scenario o Completes Caltrain Improvements/Electrification from Tamien to Gilroy by 2018 o Provides for Caltrain Service Improvements in Santa Clara County o Provides for South County Improvements, and 8.4 miles of double tracking by 2010 o Completes Dumbarton Rail by 2011 o Provides for ACE Upgrades between 2014 and 2025 o Extends light rail to Vasona Junction by June 2012 o Initiates Bus Rapid Transit Projects on Line 22, Monterey Road and Stevens Creek Boulevard by 2011 o Initiates a Bus Rapid Transit Project in Sunnyvale/Cupertino by 2021 o Completes the Mineta San Jose Airport People Mover as a direct connection from the S anta Clara BART station to a central point in the Airport Terminal by 2018. City of S an Jose financing is not required. However, the City will need to accommodate the future people mover connection in its current airport expansion plans o Zero Emission Bus Program includes 80% federal funding and 20% VTA other funding o Adds $ 717 million for a program of local streets, county expressways, and bicycle and pedestrian path improvement projects over 30 years o Provides for Senior/Disabled Programs from 2008 to 2036 at an estimated cost of$ 98 million o Provides for a gradual VTA service increase of 12.4 % by 2015, then gradual increases to 24% by 2020 for an estimated cost of $ 731 million over 30 years o Estimates an annual operating deficit of S 75 million in 2038, with Measure A expiring in 2036 and a potential 30-year, quarter-cent sales tax expiring in 2037. This scenario will require a renewal of a tax during the 2036 -2038 timeframe. The previous VTA scenario for the Measure A Capital Program is shown in Table 1 and is compared to the recommended scenario. A more detailed analysis of revenues and expenditures for the recommended 2000 Measure A Capital Investment Program is included in Attachment 1. A comparison of VTA's Operating Budget in FY 2038 is shown in Table 2. Table 1. Comparison of VTA Scenarios for 2000 Measure A Capital Program Previous Scenario Recommendation (Year of Expenditure $ (Year of Expenditure $ in millions) in millions) Revenues $ 20,658 $ 22,051 Expenditures 20,564 21,513 Initial Program Ending Balance $ 94 $ 538 Completion Program Estimates $ 1,279 NIA Table 2. Page 6 of 7 Comparison of VTA Scenarios on VTA's FY 2038 Operating Budget Fiscal Year 2038 $ in Millions Previous Scenario Recommendation Operating Revenues $ 1,206 $ 1,285 Operating Expenses 1,355 1,360 Surplus (Deficit) 149) 75) Beginning Reserve $ 263 $ 352 Ending Reserve $ 79 $ 241 ALTERNATIVES: The Board can modify the Recommended VTA Scenario or choose to take no action on this recommendation. FISCAL IMPACT: The Recommended VTA Scenario maintains Operating Reserves at the Board adopted policy of 15%. This scenario has a positive ending balance of $ 538 million subject to a new quarter-cent sales tax being passed in November 2006. If a new sales tax is not placed on the November 2006 ballot, or if it were to fail to pass by a supermaj ority of voters in Santa Clara County, it will be necessary to prepare a revised 2000 Measure A Revenue and Expenditure Plan that would have substantially less funding available for projects. ATTACHMENT 1: Recommended VTA Scenario-December 2005 in Year of Expenditure $ ATTACHMENT 2: Recommended VTA Scenario December 2005 in 2003 $ ATTACHMENT 3: Revenue Sources ATTACHMENT 4: Recommended VTA Scenario-Detailed 30-Year Capital & Operating Spreadsheets Page 7 of 7 0 O ~ N ~W r~I Y/11 SS I~ W A H CC O d L 3 w W `v L d A } o W N W ,'y O U .S i.+ a S z = a 0 u O o_ V V N a 0 h q m y N N M a s m = s p d O N^ h N N m^ N 0 N^ m 40 0, N h 10 O 10 :C "a Co N W q+j O N N O O M N ('M Q~ = 0 0 0N 0 N 0 0 O O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O O O O C N Oi N N N O O N N V N N N N N N N N N N N N o V o O W 00 N N N N C C at O 2 c . Q- al V c 0 V A co m V D` h^ 10 O -p 0. m 0 .0 h O N 0. b 0 0 C h N Y O M ~J m uJ uJ h O O O S O N< M 4 Qq Q N ? ^ Q N CZ `rZ S3 O I % M Q Q 'q -Z uz M 1 t ? -Z cz `q ~ y _ . p m h N O~ M Q Q m ON M .0 N O 'R O N m h^ h (7 a s N '0 V b 0 V' m O~ h N 0. m o '0 m O 0 m^^ M h h p T Q N co m 40 co Q N 10 co y~ r al q" ^ h 47 c 2 n n O O y O X N fPr Pr 64 64 64 64 fPr 64 64 q} 64 0. fA 64 64 64 119. 64 64 ff . 64 64 64 64 64 V} 69 LJJ ~0 O O O n O N? R n b m h w 'a 4] u ] 4] 4 ] h O co " h N O N CO V IJ V O h m O I ^ Il I ZO 47 c ' 0 ? Z Z cz CZ z n N^ O m ~A V' m^ 0. m `D N O V' O N^ m h^ h . pj C 'V ~0 m' mm O ~ h N 0. m O 10 m '0 0. m M Q` O rnvo NmM^m^oN -tom ^ hh n o ~ a V N h m 0` U O O O .p Q N 10 Iz Iq O Oh N b U h n VJ 10 N go Lo N 10 m i. N CJ N N 0 N 1 O 64 V! 64 y} V! 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V Op V' O Op ~0 0 47 `10, O M n `O `~4O77 n R 8 8 `2, k 8 CV Q N 8n n V O m O Qq N O N tq 1 , Bz h u7 o q O. 0l mu7 Lo1 Pl LL7 N r- M V 47 N 0. N LL7 O ~r7 O + ' 'o v -o = O p p 0.i [ V r N In 7 C7 N M P7 N N P b m Qh7 N N r h (V O O O N O v~ M K7 N N 64)- w E a z ffi ~ a Q~ Qm Y_ ~ Q. m Q1 a b Q~ C-5 w N 0 c w O N _O N C m j L H U a~. O -C O N O tR 025 y C Q O U N a) Q O L N U U F- c U O_ i 0 L~ ZA J O 7 L dl W -O O d C~ 06 [L p j O E Z -6 y U U G C 0 N O W 0) O Dc 'T (L N " LS C- O a~ 7 C U U W OU o V ° a m rn c ° a° a N n o 0 c Q~ w V S)_c o o a o 3 m o° o °1 3 n° ¢ ¢ o w 2' o o° o~ o c~ o E rz 1212- o ° rnU E N C a y o h V) ad) (6D 0 v+~» O O O C Q w N E i' rE ~ CL E uJ t~~ N OL OO 0 m d O¢¢¢ - o O O 7 U N C p U7 -4 w C C 0 m m CO m- 8 V U U o Q z J m m ~G CL x N N o- o o5 NQ-)Ql) co T 447 `O hm O.O~NR ol "T cq 4~7 soh m O.O N NN NN CV NNN NN C7 Q7 Q7 N N 4) O) Ql N N N N N N O N N 0 0 0 N N 0 0 0 0 N N C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C _ _ _ = = = _ _ = _ _ = _ _ _ = _1 = = _ _ _ _ _ "Zi n b n U G a ] co C V E v 2 a a d m Z N m C 7 E E co co O N Co kl~ Attachment # 3 - Revenue Sources © State H Federal New Starts Revenue Sources For Measure A Program ® Net Bond Proceeds ® Potential New 114 Cent Sales Tax ,''",►'"S''" ® Other VTA Revenue \ Sources e 2090 Measure A 112-cent Sales Tax ® Other Project Partners ® Other Revenue Sources for Measure A Prooram 2000 Measure A 112-cent Sales Tax $ 10,582,278 Federal New Starts $ 750,000 State $ 795,852 Net Bond Proceeds $ 6,117,048 Potential New 114 Cent Sales Tax Allocated to Projects $ 1,713,720 Other VTA Revenue Sources $ 311,089 Other Project Partners $ 1,746,422 Other $ 34,438 Total Revenues $ 22,050,847 Proiected Allocation of Potential New 114 Cent Sales Tax BART Subsidy $ 2,665,145 Interest Expense/Cost of Issue- VTA Bonds For Measure A $ 1,171,903 Operating Portion -114 Cent Sales Tax $ 3,837,048 Potential New Projects Pavement Mangement, County Expressways, Bike/Ped Paths $ 717,579 Increase Service From 12% to 24% $ 731,317 Senior/Disabled Programs $ 97,652 BRT: Sunnyvale/Cupertino $ 130,100 Funding For Measure A Projects $ 37,073 Measure A Portion -114 Cent Sales Tax $ 1,713,720 $ 5,550,769 o a x o a C lz w z e y o w F a Wti FO F4 Gn' b ss~~q tt E~ .C .F d II N K M N d Q _ N M .f of a : a d . $ N $ _ FQ z rte d s a M r d d a M to i " P ~ ra $ a s s _ n ra ~ ^ ~ M ~ sa ~ s ~a ~ 8 r'3 $ 8 8 8 S3 $ - 'a FL' $ Y+ q >r q I+ 8 $ FA 8 F+ S 8 8 f r3 8 S $ X A3 q- 8 8 f1I ~ $ $ Po $ 8 ^ $ £ ' $ s a fii 8 8 8 8 s ~ n m 8 q Fq 8 p p ".5 q 8 8 ,E 8 8 ro 8 ~ $ sa 8 A Pi 8 x $ p-' fi J1 8 ..f e d 8 d 8 d ~ ed 8 N s d S - 8 a' R B •d ® 8 K S K 3 ~ ~ R - ~ s ~ ~ r m M M K N- .r a F ~ ~ I ~ ^ 6: e 8 8 8 C ~ F4 8 8 q 0 g~ s s e e n K N I N K d s N K K K 07 K N= rY ~ . f s ° r~ s ` m s q ~ !a •1. m x s w s w ~ s 4 w a a a a x ~ s n s 4 s s 4 s - YI _..I - .~i F - $ R g - s ~ ~fS r - x - i I _ n ~ .f d of .i K M rd .6 M .-t of d ' N •d _ 'I w n w u w w u w w w u w w u w w w v. u u ~ w a w w u w F w ~ u ~ w , _ ~ ~ 8 ~ S 8 8 8 ~ ^ R " ^ R ~ B ,2 Nl ~ ~ R ~ °ft E ~ °s R x p ° F M ~ ~ i - N d zs d ~ n d e d rq' M $ R .F d X, M I'!,.~ ~ 3, rQ ~3 d ~ pl of R .f S ad ~ of •al rd S f8 rMn of s n d a ffi d Ai N CJ ad r ~ q . i CS ° ' S B ^ ryi .r N of; K K R A $ 8 'S g < fil Ci n fi 8 n A R R ~ w p ^ LI _ 8 I ~ y ~ F s CC ,N YY C m 8 ~ III ~ r ~ d r L 8 C ~ ry € +d ~ F d ~ S F & ~ ~ g (9 Ik e. 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