Attachment 4 - Revenues and Expenditures Assumptions
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
REVENUE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS
Type of
Revenue Base
Line Estimate
FY 2022/23
Budget
FY 2023/24
Forecast
FY 2024/25
Forecast
FY 2025/26
Forecast
FY 2026/27
Forecast
FY 2027/28
Forecast
Property
Tax/VLF
Backfill
SCC Assessor
Office January
2022 report.
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
North 40
Property
Sales
Starting in FY
2021/22
North 40 Sales 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
ERAF
SCC Assessor
Office March
2022 report
SCCA
recommend
70% of FY
2021/22
anticipated
proceeds
$400K $400K $400K $400K $400K
Sales Tax
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
Sales Tax -
Measure G
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
3/16/2022
Most Likely
Estimates
Franchise Fee
Current
baseline set
by FY 2021/22
Year End
Estimates
Current
baseline set
by FY 2021/22
Year End
Estimates
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Transient
Occupancy
Tax
Current
baseline set
by FY 2021/22
Year End
Estimates
Current
baseline set
by FY 2021/22
Year End
Estimates
5% 5% 3% 3% 3%
ATTACHMENT 4
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
REVENUE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS
Type of Revenue
Base Line
Estimates
FY
2022/23
Budget
FY 2023/24
Forecast
FY 2024/25
Forecast
FY 2025/26
Forecast
FY 2026/27
Forecast
FY 2027/28
Forecast
Business License
Tax
Current baseline
set by FY
2021/22 Year End
Estimates
3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0%
License &
Permits
Current baseline
set by FY
2021/22 Year End
Estimates
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Town Services
Current baseline
set by FY
2021/22 Year End
Estimates
3% 3% 0% 3% 3% 3%
Fine &
Forfeitures
Current baseline
set by FY
2021/22 Year End
Estimates
3% Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies
Interest
Current baseline
set by FY
2021/22 Year End
Estimates
Varies
based on
portfolio
Varies based
on portfolio
Varies based
on portfolio
Varies based
on portfolio
Varies based
on portfolio
Varies based
on portfolio
Other Sources
Current baseline
set by FY
2021/22 Year End
Estimates
Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
EXPENDITURE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS
Beginning in FY 2020/21, the Town is budgeting salaries at the actual salary plus a one-step increase.
68% of the workforce is already at top step or one step below top step. In the Five-Year Forecast,
positions are forecasted at the actual rate of pay including salaries and benefits as of April 1, 2022 and
rate is increasing in the actual anniversary date.
*Salary increases are based on actual step increases and approved Memoranda of Understanding with the
bargaining units.
**Benefit increase estimates are provided by CalPERS/Public Employees’ Medical and
Hospital Care Act (PEMHCA).
***Based on historical trends.
The Town’s required employer contribution rate estimates were developed using data provided by each
plan’s most recent CalPERS actuarial valuation. The employer contribution rates reflect percentages of
covered payroll. Rates shown for FY 2022/23 are actual rates as prescribed by CalPERS. Forecasted
rates for FY 2023/24 and subsequent years are based on the most recent CalPERS actuarial valuation
reports and staff assumptions regarding staff’s current estimate of returns for FY 2021/22 which are
presently expected to below the 6.8% discount rate.
Type of
Expenditure
FY 2022/23
Budget
FY 2023/24
Forecast
FY 2024/25
Forecast
FY 2025/26
Forecast
FY 2026/27
Forecast
FY 2027/28
Forecast
Salaries* 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Benefit -
Medical** 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Operating
Expenditures*** Varies 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Grants & Awards 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Utilities*** Varies 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Internal Service
Charges***
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Debt Service Debt Service Schedules
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
Beginning in FY 2021/22, the estimates of employer contributions were credited with an anticipated
reductions associated with the approximate $4.8 million additional discretionary payment (ADP) toward
the 2016 unfunded amortization base paid off in October 2019 and the total of approximately $5.8
million in ADPs toward unfunded 2013 and 2015 amortization bases that were paid off in FY 2020/21.
Employer contribution rate projections also include small percentage increases reflecting the
anticipation of CalPERS gradually lowering its discount rate over the Five-Year Forecast period in
accordance with the CalPERS adopted risk mitigation strategy, and the lowering of the discount rate to
the present rate of 6.8% as of 6/30/2022. Estimates were also informed by recent rate estimates
developed by the Town’s actuary using the most recent actuarial valuation updated with current year
projections of covered payrolls by plan type.
Type of
Expenditure
FY 2022/23
Budget
FY 2023/24
Forecast
FY 2024/25
Forecast
FY 2025/26
Forecast
FY 2026/27
Forecast
FY 2027/28
Forecast
Safety
POA 69.44% 72.01% 74.61% 75.68% 76.69% 76.66%
Safety
Management
POA
72.44% 75.01% 77.61% 78.68% 79.69% 79.66%
Safety
POA - PEPRA 14.62% 14.65% 13.78% 13.75% 13.76% 13.76%
Miscellaneous
TEA/Confidential/
Management
29.92% 30.04% 30.64% 28.45% 28.73% 28.42%
Miscellaneous
TEA/Confidential/
Management
PEPRA
Separate PEPRA
rate for
Miscellaneous has
not been
established yet by
CalPERS.
29.92% 30.04% 30.64% 28.45% 28.73% 28.42%
*Safety Classic Rate reflects 3% decrease in employer's contribution rate to reflect 3% contribution as
negotiated with the Town's POA during the collective bargaining process effective FY 2019/20.