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Lipp REACH Presentation.Item 18Thoughts on REACH “The world has just over a decade to get climate change under control” U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change REACH would increase Energy Consumption –Where would that energy come from? CAISO NG Base Load Plants 95% <30% efficiency 40% Non Carbon Energy Today’s Electrical Grid NG Peaker Plants CAISO NG Base Load Plants NG Peaker Plants Current Trend without REACH by 2030 CAISO NG Base Load Plants NG Peaker Plants Consequences of Implementing REACH Electric Stove Demand Added REACH Demand CAISO NG Base Load Plants NG Peaker Plants Purchasing 100% Green is only Paperwork Transaction Electric Stove Demand Energy Myths Electricity is Green & Clean Can Purchase 100% Green Energy Electricity More Efficient than NG Electricity costs comparable to NG Energy Truths Electricity is Green & Clean CA Electricity is only 30% Renewables Can Purchase 100% Green Energy Electricity More Efficient than NG Electricity costs comparable to NG Energy Truths Electricity is Green & Clean CA Electricity is only 30% Renewables Can Purchase 100% Green Energy Can’t Get It Delivered to Our Homes Electricity More Efficient than NG Electricity costs comparable to NG Energy Truths Electricity is Green & Clean CA Electricity is only 30% Renewables Can Purchase 100% Green Energy Can’t Get It Delivered to Our Homes Electricity More Efficient than NG Not for Most Residential Uses Electricity costs comparable to NG Energy Truths Electricity is Green & Clean CA Electricity is only 30% Renewables Can Purchase 100% Green Energy Can’t Get It Delivered to Our Homes Electricity More Efficient than NG Not for Most Residential Uses Electricity costs comparable to NG Electricity 6-12x More Expensive Fruitless Future-Proofing Remodeled home 20 years ago -added Cat 5 internet & phone lines Today Exclusively WIFI & cell phones Same professionally: I almost always guessed wrong! Recommended Actions •Do no harm •Do not mandate fully electric •Require minimum futureproofing without too many specifics •e.g. run EV conduits but not wiring •Consider dual meters to allow mixed tariffs for different applications •Work toward big wins –REACH Further •Work with other cities and agencies (CEC, PUC, SVCE, EPA) to promote better tariffs •Insist bankrupt PG&E terminate long term contracts for dirty energy •Speed up Green Energy Deployment •Give mountain people a break –unreliable PG&E, fires, mudslides earthquakes are hazards. Never insist upon full electric for remote areas. They need their propane for cooking, boiling water and heat in an emergency. Backup Slides Other Myths and Reality •Natural gas leaks increase methane emissions and GHG •Yes, but mostly upstream. Very little escapes in residences. REACH does not address upstream •But, residential refrigerant losses from heat pumps are also a GHG source •Natural gas pollutes indoor air more than electric cooking •Rubbish! Unvented electric ovens and spatters on electric elements are way more polluting CEC chart Figure 3-32: Daily average household maximum loads from electrifying all end uses in a high building electrification scenario •Change appliances from gas to electric and somehow electric usage goes down! *Very questionable assumption that peak loads are dramatically reduced in 2050 as more homes are fully electrified, and a couple of EVs are added * Negative Pricing -Too Much Solar, too little storage Electric Stoves Turning On a Couple of Hours Later? Primarily supplied by low efficiency Peaker Plants Windy during peak hours Greatest mismatch in usage/generation occurs on a hot September afternoon during sunset as solar generation declines but AC is still on and cooking starts –how is that peak mismatch generated? Generating Heat from Electricity It’s basically crazy to burn NG to generate steam to spin a turbine then send it tens to hundreds of miles through lossy transformers and transmission lines Using a 40% efficiency of the heat content of NG delivered to the consumer: Compared to NG: •An electric dryer generates 250% more GHG •A conventional water heater generates 200% more; a heat pump based water heater generates 50% less •But, heat pump water heaters cost about $1,000 more, cost twice as much to operate, and chill the room they are in –which may lead to increased space heating –e.g. using an electric space heater in that garage workshop Cooking with Electricity A Dirty Way to Go •A conventional electric stove generates 135% more GHG than NG at base load times •Efficiency per CEC : NG 40%, resistive electric 74%, inductive electric 84% •Really? They can calculate this down to 1% accuracy? Huge variation based on pan sizes and cooking temperatures •Cooking that evening meal during peak usage times (4-8PM) requires deployment of low efficiency peaker plants •A conventional electric stove actually generates 200% more GHG at peak hours •An electric oven generates 250% more GHG than NG •Imagine how many low efficiency peaking generators would go off line if everyone cooked with NG! Heat Pump Space Heating •A potentially very big win in our climate •COP* can be as high as 5 (though typically <4 in real life operations •e.g. dirt accumulation and defrost cycling •However, current tariffs penalize heat pumps -both tiered pricing and time-of-day •Electrical energy costs over 6x more than NG •Tier prices designed to reduce energy usage make heat pumps an expensive proposition •If I want to cook with gas I cannot get the fully electric tier tariff, a huge disincentive for heat pump heating! •Heat pumps should be operated without large rapid changes in temperature •Engages resistive heating to meet sudden demand •Turning down the thermostat way down while away at work, nights or during peak pricing periods may actually increase electrical usage rather than save it. *COP (coefficient of performance) = energy out/energy in Axioms •Grid operators will always use available green energy first unless forced otherwise by long term contracts as the variable cost is near zero. All demand above that will be supplied by NG •Less than 40% of the energy content of power plant fuel gets delivered to your home (basic thermodynamics puts a strict limit on this) •For the common NG turbine peaking plants (jet engines) it is under 30% •Increased REACH demands will be met by slowing down retirement of NG fired plants since the supply of green energy at any time is finite •Essentially all new (i.e. REACH electrification) demand will be supplied from existing dirty energy sources! •Other GHGs such as NG leaks and refrigerant leaks happen but pretty much net out on overall tradeoffs according to CEC estimates A Personal Aside •I changed my kitchen from fully electric to a NG stove. I think anyone doing a major remodel wouldn’t seriously worry about the reverse -running electric wires on a kitchen remodel if they were changing from NG to electricity. It’s a small expense in the scheme of things. •I installed a fancy electric wall oven. It is unvented and fills the house with cooking fumes. It is too far from my super large 1,200cfm stove fan. The manufacturer says it cannot be vented. My guess is a NG stove would have to be vented by code. I waste a huge amount of energy (fan power and heat/AC loss) by running the fan on high trying to reduce the fumes (a double whammy on energy efficiency). •Having had both electric and NG kitchens, my experience is electric cooking is a far greater contributor to in-house pollution than gas •Spatters smoke on conventional electric stoves, while a spatter on a NG stove is unlikely to hit the hot flames and when it does it is consumed. •Electric broilers are essentially unusable due to grease spatters on the elements. NG broilers consume most of the fumes from cooking and don’t have much of a spatter issue. Electric Car Hookups •Electric cars are a big win as conventional gas engines are only 20% efficient and use high carbon fuel •Dual meters are interesting –one for electric car charging so better tariffs can be developed for them (but, who knows what will happen!) •Electric cars are potentially a big win but need to be better integrated with the grid operation and grid pricing •New meters are an expensive retrofit •Wait for more standards before making possibly counterproductive rules •Faster charging options may be developed •Electric cars may someday be integrated with grid storage •Whatever is done now will be obsolete Residential Batteries •Storage is a big issue with renewables •Large scale grid battery storage can be implemented at a fraction of the cost of residential batteries and be better maintained and integrated with grid operations and pricing •Residential batteries a marginal idea •A 10kW $3,500 Tesla battery stores less than $0.30 worth of electricity at normal wholesale prices (~$3 at peak prices)