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2015-055 - Adopt North 40 Specific Plan
RESOLUTION 2015 -055 RESOLUTION OF THE TOWN COUNCIL OF THE TOWN OF LOS GATOS ADOPTING THE NORTH FORTY SPECIFIC PLAN. THE PLAN AREA COMPRISES APPROXIMATELY 44 ACRES LOCATED AT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TOWN OF LOS GATOS, BORDERED BY STATE ROUTE 17 AND STATE ROUTE 85 FREEWAYS TO THE WEST AND NORTH, LOS GATOS BOULEVARD TO THE EAST, AND LARK AVENUE TO THE SOUTH. APN 424-07-009,010,024 THROUGH 027, 031 THROUGH 037, 052 THROUGH 054, 060, 063 THROUGH 065, 070, 081 THROUGH 086, 090, 094 THROUGH 095, 099, 100, 102 THROUGH 112,424-06-115,116, AND 129. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT: EIR -10 -002 GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENTS: GP -14 -001 ZONING CODE AMENDMENT: Z -14 -001 WHEREAS: A. The applicant, the Town of Los Gatos, proposes to adopt a Specific Plan for the North Forty Area (area bounded by Lark Avenue, Los Gatos Boulevard, Highway 85 and Highway 17) with a maximum development capacity of up to 364 housing units and 580,000 square feet of non - residential uses. Of the non - residential uses, the maximum development capacities are up to 250,000 square feet of office /hotel, and up to 400,000 square feet of other commercial (such as retail, restaurants, specialty market, health clubs, personal service, and entertainment). At least 30% of the area (approximately 13.2 acres) would be open space. The North Forty Specific Plan includes General Plan Amendments (GP -14 -001), Zoning Code Amendment (Z-14 -001), and an Environmental Impact Report (EIR -10 -002). B. A draft Specific Plan for this area was written in 1999, but was not adopted. C. In 2010, the Los Gatos Town Council adopted an updated General Plan, called the 2020 General Plan which required the preparation of a Specific Plan for the North 40 and 1 included goals, policies, general guidelines, and implementation strategies to inform the preparation of the Specific Plan. D. In 2011, the Town Council appointed the North 40 Advisory Committee consisting of Town Council, Planning Commission, and other community representatives to provide direction on the preparation of the North 40 Specific Plan, consistent with the General Plan. E. The Committee participated in over 17 meetings over a two year period. Public participation also occurred at the Committee meetings and through two community workshops, an on -line survey, and three Town Council /Planning Commission study sessions. In addition, a dedicated North 40 webpage contains all of the Advisory Committee summaries, draft documents, and other materials for public access. F. After reviewing and commenting on the October 2013 Screencheck Draft of the North 40 Specific Plan, the Advisory Committee concluded its work on October 15, 2013 and was dissolved. G. The Planning Commission held a duly noticed public hearing on July 23, 2014, at which time the Commission considered the public testimony, the staff report prepared for that meeting ( "Staff Report"), and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final FIR, and continued the matter to their August 13, 2014 meeting. H. The Planning Commission held a continued public hearing on August 13, 2014, at which time the Commission considered the Staff Report prepared for that meeting, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final EIR, and recommended that the Town Council consider the North 40 Specific Plan in light of the 2 specific recommendations and possible amendments to the Specific Plan, and forwarded the Final Environmental Impact Report to the Town Council without certification because the PC cannot make the overriding considerations and due to specific deficiencies in the EIR. L The Town Council held a duly noticed public hearing on September 2, 2014, at which time the Town Council considered the public testimony, the Staff Report, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final EIR and continued the item to September 16, 2014. J. The Town Council held a continued public hearing on September 16, 2014, at which time the Town Council considered the Staff Report, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final EIR. K. The Town Council held a duly noticed public hearing on September 16, 2014, at which time the Town Council considered the public testimony, the Staff Report, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final EIR and continued the item to December 16, 2014. L. The Town Council held a duly noticed public hearing on December 16, 2014, at which time the Town Council considered the public testimony, the Staff Report, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final EIR and continued the item to February 3, 2015. M. The Town Council held a duly noticed public hearing on February 3, 2015, at which time the Town Council considered the public testimony, the Staff Report, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final FIR and continued the item to March 3, 2015 3 N. The Town Council held a continued public hearing on March 3, 2015, at which time the Town Council considered the Staff Report, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final FIR and continued the item to April 14, 2015, O. The Town Council held a continued public hearing on April 14, 2015, at which time the Town Council considered the Staff Report, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final EIR and continued the item to June 2, 2015. P. The Town Council did not consider the item at their continued public hearing on June 2, 2015 and continued the item to June 17, 2015. Q. The Town Council held a continued public hearing on June 17, 2015, at which time the Town Council considered the Staff Report, and all other documentation related to the North Forty Specific Plan and Final FIR. R. The Town Council considered all facts and information related to the North Forty Specific Plan. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED: A. That the Town Council finds that the North Forty Specific Plan is consistent with the 2020 General Plan. B. That the Town Council adopts the North Forty Specific Plan dated June 2, 2015 with additional amendments attached hereto as Exhibit A adopted at their June 17, 2015 public hearing. M PASSED AND ADOPTED at a regular meeting of the Town Council of the Town of Los Gatos, California, held on the 17`h day of June 2015, by the following vote: COUNCIL MEMBERS: AYES: Rob Rennie, Marico Sayoc, Mayor Marcia Jensen NAYS: Steve Leonardis, Barbara Spector ABSENT: . _ . ► SIGNED: MAYOR OF THE TOWN OF LOS GATOS LOS GATOS, CALIFORNIA ATTEST: CLERK ADMINISTRATOR OF THE TOWN OF LOS GATOS LOS GATOS, CALIFORNIA EXHIBIT A NORTH FORTY SPECIFIC PLAN lil C N Cl) v �1 H x y a c� M z N M z N 0 z a r r K r M M N td r a z x z 0 x 0 c z M V N O �n 3 Z � N a N aN a � o ON x ° 0 o z 0 w a A 73 a d W F F 0 V V G si o� o o w f-0 z a N n. V w V W� o- v` x a' o= vv w v a � o ON x ° 0 o z 0 w a A 73 a d W F F 0 V V G si o� o o w f-0 z a N n. 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Aaewwns anllnoex3 1 1.I e I It 0 ¢7) j 0 e 1 o- jr Hotel Market Assessment ................................................................ .............................89 ExistingSuppl y ........................................................................................ ............................... 89 Planned and Proposed Competition ......................................................... ............................... 91 Performance Trends ................................................................................. ............................... 93 Meeting Space Market Assessment 97 HotelMeeting Space ................................................................................ ............................... 97 Day -Use Meeting Facilities .................................................................... ............................... 102 Demand from Major Fmployers ............................................................ ............................... 107 Opportunities & Strategies for Development ... 109 Overview................................................................................................ ............................... 109 Retail Development Opportunities ......................................................... ............................... 110 Retail Development Strategies ............................................................... ............................... 114 Office Development Opportunities ........................................................ ............................... 116 Hotel Development Opportunities ......................................................... ............................... 118 Conference and Meeting Space Development Opportunities ................ ............................... 119 Prioritizing Opportunities ....................................................................... ............................... 121 Appendices....................................................... ............................... ............................125 E X 0 Ck't3:Lf? E3 11im£"s`, a £t Site Description and Location The North 40 site is a highly strategic location in the West Valley for new commercial development: — The North 40 site is located at the intersection of Highways 85 and 17, making it a highly visible and desirable location for a variety of uses, particularly for retail, hotel, and meeting /conference facilities. — The North 40's location at the crossroads of the West Valley's freeway system makes it easily accessible to many of the region's major hubs of activity, including major employers such as Apple Computer, Netflix, and cultural attractions in downtown San Jose. Demographic and Economic Overview While Los Gatos itself is a small community, the Town and the Retail Trade Area (RTA) that it is situated in have a significant concentration of high-income households and high rates of homeownership that retailers and hotel operators will likely find attractive — despite modest future population and homvehold growth: — The Town of Los Gatos had a population of 29,413 in 2010 and experienced limited population or household growth in the last decade. Los Gatos is characterized by relatively small households, a high rate of home ownership, and high incomes. The median household size for Los Gatos was 2.35 persons per household in 2010 compared to the Bay Area average household size of 2.69. The Town's median annual household income is over $115,000, significantly higher than the $79,000 figure for the Bay Area. Approximately 63 percent of occupied housing units are owner - occupied, in contrast to just over 56 percent for the Bay Area. — While not at the levels of the Town, the Retail Trade Area (RTA) with a 2010 population of 606,000 also has high incomes and high rates of home ownership. The median household income was just over $94,000 in 2010. The RTA's homeownership rate was 61 percent of occupied housing units. The RTA represents population and buying power within a 10 minute drive of the North 40 site. — Both Los Gatos and the Retail Trade Area will experience modest population growth from 2010 to 2020. Based on the Town's recently adopted General Plan, the Town is North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 1 of 150 OSI3o Z abed 031e.11S laautdolanaQ ssauisng pue XpnlS lalteW weld aglaadS ,CUoq mjoN •seaze polezodioamun ,Sgieou .taglo pue eiolexeS `ouojoS oluolnl ut 2uiddogs jo joel aqi of anp lied ut pue umol jo sa$pa Pell aeau sazolsRntp pue SpNivuuadns 3o uopeool oql of lied ut anp `sauaaoz2 se goes stuall,Sep6.tana.to3 siaddoels siassile osle Il1eg1 ul lensnun sT umoy oqj — sazols Pstpuegozaut lesauaO pue dno.B slnl. meu ffuiplmq Pill ate sales eildea zad ul VId aql 2uI$$sl szoloos lluo Pill tVld aql zoj lllenuue 000`bt$ uegl ssal 01 pondutoo XIlenuue £Sq`8Z$ le `g2iq almb on soleg so7 ul sales gjai `stseq elldeo zad e up — '800Z Pouts pougaap Peed sales alalgan .tolout gSnotple `q$iq WA We sales azols poo; pue alaigan aolout ui sales Ilela.t Ielol s,umoy aql jo uolpodoid oqy -luooaad S I it saoeld Ouhlulzp pate saalnlos poo3 pue `luaozad £Z le saxois aie.tanaq pue poo3 `1uaa.tad 0£ le szaleap shed pue alalgan.tolout Pie atunloe sales Xq sarioSaleo 1s32del aaxgi oqy 'uocittm 8£8$ llalstulxotdde le poleuglso Pie 800Z soj umoy aql zq3 sales Ilela2I — : sdajpvjad /o xuu asdanpp v gjpna dojoas jmmd 8uo ns dJdA v svq s wD so7 Iuauassessy Ia )jaew Ile;aa •aldoad 000`Z slolduia pue Ob glzoN aqi cuoz3 DAI.ip alnunu aaagl e sc teudsog s lep uolss'W a.u8D clileag elqumloD — -, Itvmuue s,Cep lualled 000`88 salezauo2 pus aldoad 008'1 s6oldum `alts Oy quoN aql utog Pnup alnutut oml sl lelldsoq uejummS poop — .(00£`86) ul olnuuuoo ueql (006`98 [) �zom so3 ,Sep f TDAa Ino &gInututoo sluoprsw Pam qum ,Sallee uoallcS ul ,Silununuoa lelmaplsat uiooapoq e se uotlounj vj-d oql pue soleD sort — :jpvjad ,mau dof ja_/.tvtu ja8.tvj aq dvtu saa,Cojdtua vagi— saippjpovj jvoppaut .tagpo puv jvjpdsog uvh,tvutvs poog jvaavCpv ayj up sda,Cojdtua do[vtu fb djptupxodd atg tuodf sjtfauaq ajpa oy gjdoN atj,L aiapuo.id aapndas puv sdajavjad Ivaoj a_zwOJIvd, jaajt7 psotll oqA ,Cvp Cdana ypg aqj ojup 8upjntutuoo sdaa(dont 000`001 dCjdvau , adagj `up 8upjntuutoo sdagjo uvgj NLX aqj fb jno 8u?jnujtuoo sjuappsad adout jb udajjvd ajntuutoo v ajpdsaQ 'Ob tluoN aqi se gans salts uo Ilgul oq X13a tjel ltpm vyg Pip pue umoy aql ut sagluni.toddo luouzdolaAap lelluoplsoi atnind ails Ol, quoN aql le 9ulsnoq mau .iof lellualod aqi uo ued ul passel `Ppeoop aqi tano slnaplsa.[ OOZ`£ ,flaleutlxozdde ppe of polels — Long -tenn declines in retail sales in Los Gatos over the last decade have been related largely to the decline in the automotive sector. In 2010, taxable motor vehicle sales in the Town were only 21 percent of 2000 levels after adjusting for inflation. — With its high per capita sales levels, Los Gatos shows injections of sales in most major retail categories, indicating attraction of shoppers from outside the Town. The Town is unusual in that it also attracts shoppers for everyday items such as groceries, due in part to the location of supermarkets and drugstores near the edges of Town and in part due to the lack of retail in Monte Sereno, Saratoga and other nearby unincorporated areas. — Injections are also high for motor vehicle and parts dealers and food services (which includes restaurants). Two categories, building materials and general merchandise stores, stand out for their substantial leakages. — The Town's primary retail areas are the Downtown, Los Gatos Boulevard and the four neighborhood centers. These areas combined make up 59 percent of all Los Gatos retail outlets but generate 88 percent of the Town's taxable retail sales. Los Gatos' Downtown, while impacted by regional and national economic trends, has remained a strong regional retail destination, attracting shoppers from outside the Town. — Downtown is seen as a retail destination, drawing shoppers from Los Gatos as well as other nearby communities. Downtown is also a tourist destination, with out -of- towners coming to experience the small town and pedestrian - friendly ambience. In 2010, Downtown Los Gatos generated approximately $209 million in taxable retail sales, or over 50 percent of the Town's total taxable retail sales, confirming its significance as a shopping destination and as a tax generator for the Town. — On an inflation - adjusted basis, this sales level has declined from taxable sales of $225 million in 2008, but has rebounded from $198 million in 2009. This recent uptick is due in part to increasing sales at the Apple Store. — The Downtown Core area accounts for nearly three - quarters of all businesses in the Downtown. The largest concentrations are in apparel, eating and drinking, and other retail, which includes various types of specialty retail outlets such as sporting goods, toy, and books /stationery stores. The Core is characterized by smaller floor plates, and because of the formula retail ordinance as well as the limited number of larger store spaces available, the Core contains few chain retailers. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 3 of 150 OS [ 30 b aged X2oj jS luamdo[anaQ ssoucsng pue �pn1S )xlreW ue[d ogloadS Xpod ilpoX •sauoRa ;ea Isow ul saanl?puadxa luapcsaa pne sales Ilelaa uaam)aq aaueleq ani3E[ai e Sucleolpul `siseq elideo sad e uo .iomol gonm aq of seadde suoiloafua pue s08e3[ea[ 3o slana7 — -umo•[, aq; ao3 slam[ agl3leq )noge f luo aae sales Ilelaa eltdea sad jo slang[ s,yl-d aqj 'auole soleD so-] III sales aql sauq; 01 inoge'uogllq 1,,8$ Xloleuuxoadde le poleuglso aae 80OZ ao3 sales llelaa s,yy,[ aqI — 'pt, gj. oAT ayj tv Imjaa $uja,ra9-1401, t dCuv gj!At anjjpadUIW aq jj }M goizq a suoepvujjsap ?kiddogs jjvjdJ jvu0a8aa fb rQauvn puv xaut a8.101 v sLLlnjl[oa va p aput j jjvjay agj •prenalnog sowD so-I ao umo)umo(l Timp sales [ie ;as3o uoiuodozd aallews gonw e ao3 paltmoom pouigwoo saaluaa asogj •2ulddogs gaols Soap ao Xi000u4 lsasola aql yuasaadaa ,Cogl aouls umoy aql aplslno woa3 saaddogs ducloe.gle sngl `souepunoq umoy agl aeau ao le poleoo[ Ile age saaluoo poogaogq8cau osegl — •uoTleyS euosen pue `arenbS suaaui[em `aayuoD Sulumorj `aaluaj epeuoaui21 saaluao poogaogq�ilau zofem ano3 seq so)eD soZ — 'saauuas pun 9poo8 aauatuanuoa Cvp Caana 8u!pjao td 9Jd1!VId o°ujn+as -11)001 rtq pajdnaao fjaS.rvj a w sjajuaa poog.ioggSiau aq j -aoloas angocuo ;ne aq) ut sales Outseaaoap woa3 XpOje[ OupInsac Brea f aallaea cuoz3 ouiloop daals e `OIOZ LIT uocllau ZSIS /Clo)euaxoadde3o sales lle;aa algexe; peq prenalnog soleD so7 — -suzall poo3 ao3 uoilmisop $ulddogs e sl ease aqj saleocpuc s)aNaeuuadns jo uoiuodozd g2jq aqs •aso f ueS pue IlagduiuD 3o seaae Xgaeau pue soleD so-I sanaas ley aalsnlo e ut `slaNaeuuadns Xq paaogocre [[e age saaluaa 3ulddogs saSae[ ano3 oqy -slapno Ijvjae Sulpuvjs -aa f'puv `gasaujsnq pamlim puv sJajvap o ;nn `sja- /.ivuuadns dq padogauv s. ajuaa Iutddogs ,0!untutuoa fb xnu v st p majnog going so7 -aaoa umoyumoQ aql ul sales Itielaa algexel agl3o 31eq nano ao3 ;un000e sxalielai e1nuug3 `(ooueucpao Ile)aa elnuuo3 aql of )oafgns lou) `sppno autes asagl3u}pnloxg (suoue)s oopuos pue llelaa pale[aa -poo3 $cupn[oxo) s)apno [ie)aa agl3o luaoaad [ [ ii[uo do 3up[euz a[Igm twe aql ul sales Ilelaa 3[gexel3o luaaaad 0E .10A0 papinoad aaoD umolumoQ aqy ut 11e ;aa e[nuuo3 se po)eu &sap saaols `O [ OZ uI 'sales Ile;aa o[gexel jo uogaodoad lueoulu$cs e ao3 slun000e ssolaq)aanau `aaoD umolumoQ oql uc poloulsaa al!tlm `llelaa elnuuod — The Town may be able to enhance its retail base in a range of retail types. — Along with general merchandise stores and home improvement centers, specific store types that appear to be lacking in sales in the Town include appliance stores, and specialty food stores such as meat markets, fish and seafood markets, and produce markets. The sales injections for clothing and clothing accessories stores reflects an overall strength, but the apparel stores in the Town tend to be high -end stores, not necessarily carrying the types of inexpensive everyday apparel more commonly found in many general merchandise stores. — Given the Town's already- strong attraction as a food shopping destination and demographic profile, the lack of specialty food stores may also represent an opportunity to broaden the food retailing mix and enhance the Town's strong position for this retail category. To some extent, the leakage of retail sales in certain categories dominated by large - format stores of 30,000 square feet or more reflects the Town's desire to retain a small -town feel, with smaller shops and in the Downtown Core, limited formula retail. As a result, there are few retail spaces in Los Gatos of approximately 10,000 square feet or more that are available to accommodate larger users such as appliance stores, home improvement stores, or general merchandise stores. While the Town will undoubtedly seek to retain its character, appropriately designed development at the North 40 site may present an opportunity to provide retail space for larger users that might complement the existing retail mix in Los Gatos and provide goods and services that residents currently seek elsewhere. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 5 of 150 0S 3o 9 aged Xi ioje )S luacudolanaQ ssouisng pue ,ipn)S la�zuyq uuld ac-lioodS Xpo3 glzom -(aouds Suilaoui /laloq pue lielaz S a) ani)oez)le ([qS[q swj!uacue 01, glzoN ;o a�?mj and alogm oql pug p[nom leq) aogjo lmoipow pus `saznlnan [leuts `sdn -y[uls zo3 ands y zo g ssulD )umaaullnuz oq pinoo JoIntu laOjul [eilua)od zaglouy -saogjo leoipow zo (1aa3 azunbs +000`001) zasn puo um zo szasn za5zul zo3 aamds y ssulD zafzm[ opnloui pinoo sadXl lonpozd aoc33o lmi)1010d — -aluz azn)duo )uaozad OZ pue 01 e 3utax[ddu `pumucap )au [e)o) supjo laa3 azunbs 000`161 Pus 000`OL uaamloq aznldmo pinoo alts 0p q)zoK aql `uoileoo[ Suozls sit cpim — -soleD so-I ul alls lgRizgly aq) le asn aogjo looj azunbs 000`Ogg posodozd aql $ucpnlouc `s)oalozd pasodoid pine pauueld zo3 Wi unooae niju O£OZ pIIe OI OZ uaamlaq aamds oogjo mau jo )aa3 000`L96 01000'869 luuoilippe ue )zoddns umo mazy lagzeyq oql lmcp sa)ecui)sa gyg `(rDygy) s)uauzuzanoD eazy ,fug jo uogeloossy aql Xq pazedazd suonoa.fozd luam,tolduta uodn posing — 'slaaCozd pasodoid pun pauuujd pun aamds luvava 2u1JS1Xa zunoaav olm ?u?yVI ` aamds aaLijo fo uoyin, 7suoo zzoddn suoj7aaloed luawdojdWa puv aa>lfo , of a)js ani7ao lln uv aq pjnorn op gjJON ayl xHi)aN su gons saleld zooU za5zml azinbaz ley szasn pua pue szasn zallms Xq uanup aq o) spual puuuzaQ •so)uD so7 m pazanooaz Xlln3lou seq puuump oog3o `pouaq)i?uas)s dl)ueogiu$is seq ,Ceg q)noS aql ui azagmosla pueump oligM •,Czanoaaz )uauno oql Suiznp .(l)gdils popunogaz aneq pue a�ezanu la)lzuui oql zeau o) passazduxoa azam sluaa so)eC) so-1 uoissooag luaig aq) Suun(j — uoyeaol 33UJO algensap pue OA[)aezllB ue si lecp a)eoipui a)ez ,Caueaen zamol pue sa)ez assal zaq�iiq sumo L aqZ •,Seg glnoS ac[l ui luaozad 9.91 pus uazy Tojm g oql ui )uoamd £ 6 01 pa.mduloo luoozad S'S JO OuM 6aue3en aaydo uu seq so)uD so-1 •alogm u se Xeg cpnoS aq) uc gb'Z$ pue mazy )axzeyg acp ui ands zo3 6£'Z$ of pazuducoo )oo3 wenbs zad gg-Z$ si so)eD sort ui luaz Suplse aoinzas -Iln3 a�msanm lua.uno oql •sluaz pue same Xoumdn000 zag5iq glim s>jmwtlz)uaq Xug q)noS puu uazy la)lzelnl sit p3uuo3zad)no dlluzaua3 seq )a)lzuui ooijjo so,mD so7 aq) XIleouo)siH Xu,g glnoS aql ui ,Czo)uanui [e)o)3o Z•Z ,ila)ecuixozddm �Wpuasazdaz `laa3 azunbs uoilliul b' I XIolmuzixozddu aq o) 3lumzd lg3luX �jmuiAY oM [miozaucucoZ) ,fazeD pue gsiucoj ,fq po)mculisa ,izoluanui oogjo ue seq Xl)uauno so)eg so7 — `dvg gins puv vaa y7ayavN aql uj aamds aa>{fb Jdj)dq paiu.mf+ad svg lj yay vue as �fo jvuoj8af agj fo a8v7uao, ad jjvues v saszedwoo ma ,ivui aoyjb soing 907 dj) ajegfl ;uaiussassy;amaew 9311 10 Hotel Market Assessment Los Gatos has two existing high- end.full service hotel properties. The performance of hotels within the Market Area has followed the business cycle but has out - performed its Santa Clara County benchmark. — The Market Area for hotels has an inventory of almost 2,000 rooms, representing 7.6 percent of the total rooms in Santa Clara County. Over 79 percent of these rooms in the Market Area are in properties considered as "upscale" or better by Smith Travel Research (STR). Los Gatos is home to two high -end full service hotels with 186 rooms, or 9% of high - end hotel rooms in the Market Area. — Throughout the current business cycle, hotel properties in the Market Area have consistently out - performed those in other parts of Santa Clara County with respect to occupancy levels and room revenues. Occupancy in Market Area properties peaked at 75 percent in 2007, fell to a low of 65 percent, and recovered to 72 percent as of the end of 2010. In contrast, properties in Santa Clara County rose to a high of 70 percent in 2007, dropped to a low of 58 percent in 2009, and rose back to 68 percent in 2010. — Revenues in the Market Area have not recovered as strongly as occupancy: the average daily rate peaked at $148 in 2008 and now stands at $127. Revenue per available room also follows a similar trend. Higher occupancies have been achieved by maintaining competitive room rates. While a small part of the Market Area and Santa Clara hospitality market, Los Gatos has been an attractive destination. — Interviews with key community and business informants indicate that Los Gatos' existing lodging facilities and overall community amenities complement the main demand drivers for overnight room stays in Los Gatos, which include: • Business travel generated not only by firms located in Los Gatos, but also those located in downtown San Jose and other areas of central Silicon Valley; general managers of local hotels have found considerable success marketing to high -level business travelers, particularly those who travel with their spouses; • Leisure travel related to shopping and dining in downtown Los Gatos, as well as area wineries; and • Weddings and other social events. 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Retail Strategy LI: Formulate a coordinated market campaign for both the Downtown and North 40 retail development. A cooperative marketing effort between the Town of Los Gatos, local Downtown merchants, and the North 40 developer can help brand and position each retail district appropriately to reinforce their respective core strengths and cross - market events and announcements —all to reinforce Los Gatos as a shopping destination. Retail Strategy 1.2: Continue and Enhance Downtown Merchant Vitality Programs. The Town of Los Gatos presently operates several programs oriented to business development and merchant assistance. These program which include business workshops in partnership with the Chamber of Commerce and West Valley College, mentoring services for small businesses, and marketing events, should be continued and enhanced to offer assistance to merchants downtown to effectively market to new shoppers brought in by the North 40. Retail Strategy 1.3: Reinforce the Downtown's Role as Community Hub and Social Center. By continuing to program Farmers Markets, music and art festivals, and special events, Los Gatos can maintain the Downtown as the Town's community hub. With its diverse set of buildings and traditional street layout the Downtown offers an authentic small downtown experience that is hard for a new development that is planned at one time to reproduce and compete with. The recent reported purchase of the Los Gatos Theater by a local investment group to keep it as a smal I movie theater will boost the Town's efforts to maintain a vital Downtown. Retail Strategy 1.4: Branding and Identify for Los Gatos Shopping Districts. The branding of the North 40 for any retail use should be approached from the idea that strong identities for all Los Gatos' shopping districts should be reinforced and branded to offer Los Gatos as a whole "package" of shopping and leisure activities, including nearby wineries. Branding and identity should be accomplished in part by well designed and consistently applied wayfinding and signage treatments that clearly identify where one is within the Town. For new shoppers coming into Los Gatos for retail at the North 40, the North 40 could serve as a "gateway" to the Town with information kiosks (both portable/seasonal and permanent). Retail Strategy 1.5: Improve Way Finding and Public Parking Signage. Some key informants reported that a perception of lack of parking presents a barrier to local residents patronizing Downtown merchants and businesses. Most residents visit Downtown by car and parking while adequate is sometimes be difficult to find or is not always in the most North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 9 of 150 0S t Jo o aoud OalvalS 3uatudolanaQ ssaulsng pue ,CpnlS la3lmW weld alpoadS ilioj ilijoN •pzenalnog soleg so-1 ssone poogaoggSlau ssaulsnq pue lelivapisaz Xgaeau zaglo lnq ails aql le s)uoplsat mau Xluo lou lioddns of oti g3xoN aql le 11e13a aoaalaOAUOO pue poogsogg3iou aSeznooua pings umoy agy 'O t, 14l.3oN aqi le Ilelaa aoualuanuoJ pue poogaogqBlaN e5ejnoou3 :£ ABalealS pelea -soleg so7 oplslno cuag staddogs ul 2ulaq Ilan leg) llelai elnuuo3 su liam se `aaols aouegdde m `( „Ileg la>(auu[„ spoor �jjmoods se qons xlui s,umoy ogl luauialdwoo pim )ucg sasn llelaa ,Cllemds mau /gguopl of aadolanap 0t, quoN aql gllm lsom pinoqs soleg so-1 -0b LWON le Iielaa AlleloadS MeN a5einoou3 :g ABelegS l.1elea -wield zoou (loo3 azunbs 000`0£ 13AO `B•a) aleld jooll io2.iel Sull)luuod Xq souo23lea luawaAOZdwi outoq aslpuugo.aaui leaaua3 agl ul sasn pelaz mau gsgqe)sa of ,Cllunuoddo luawdolanap ob cpzoN aql Oulsn zaplsuoa pings soleD So-1 aBe> ea-I soles 5ugslx3 a.lnideo pIM legl sJallelaa MON alowoad :ti f&IWIS suismegaaw aluudozddu ,CIIuRai zaglo g3nojgl jo odolanap op quoN agl glim 3uawaa.Be luawdolanap s,umoy aql ui sasnela alodwoo -uou gSnonp panalgou aq uuo silty 'Ob gl-IoN oql of amoolac )ou pue umolumocl ulewac of poOmnoaua oq pinogs umolumoCl siopmax einuuo3 `ulu� leosg )au e azgeaa of umoy aql .io3 zapzo ul `umolumoQ ilulaa uimum3 zone-lslp Xoui autos allgM -pq y)aoN o; umo)umo(l lle)ag elnmaog ;o uolluaolag woa3 jWijj1gs -xuy >, pioAd :)•Z d2a)er)S -umoy aq) aplslno wo.g szaddogs mau �?ulloeat)e ,C11e1)ualod snq) `yyg oql ul umoy aql aplslno sal)gloq saplo agl jo autos of isualuoo ul aauauadxa gulddogs gsag pue mau e xajjo pinoo Ob gl.ioN aqy -anuanaa xel sales jo )unowe aSze( e al3jaua2 uea siaiie)az elnuuo3 ma3 e 1sn'f)egl umogs seq tt/"olumoCl ilulaa ulnwao; gllm aauauadxa amo s,umoy aql aouls a)ls Ob gPON aql lu ile)az ulnuuoj mau Oullouu id zaplsuoa pinogs umoy aql `aseq xel 931e8 sll ,tjls.zanlp puu uoq)i?uar)s oy 'uMol aql joj anuanaa xel saleS ajolnl aleaauaE) pue lfllunwwoo aql wojl Buplea� aye IMP saoln303 pue spooO apinoJd 01 097 gPON aq) le l/elaa MeN alowoad :Z if5eleaiS -umolumoQ puu 0b g3soN aql le pagsllgelsa aq pinoo suo[lulS -saauelsip ljogs zano aollel- iodsuml OAIIBIU311B ,Cglieaq puu olquumisns oS?wnoouo of sala,falq osn- ponds `aazj apinozd (onSeid pue `puep.iod `sued su gans) odosng pue samS pollull agl gloq ul sapla ,CuuW slomsip om) oql uaamlaq 3naLU2A01H Xsea alowoad of pa )Iull aq pinoa umo)umoQ puu ol, quoX oigl `iuluai alo6olq aa.g ao /pue uogaauuoo apings e $uipinoid SU •umo)utAo(I puu 017 glaoN Kull o) tucAwd «a�lII pa iegS„ .io ap)ngS apleora :9.1 ,f24)ea)S Ilulau -uoydomz d slgl auloolano dlaq P1noo s)ol pa)ou sands aigelleAe gllm suOis oluoaloolo zo aBeuSls luuollawip .talla43o uollellelsul -suoiluool lualuaeuoa Office Strategy 1: Promote New Office Space to Expand Town Inventory. Los Gatos should encourage a mix of new office space at the North 40 site geared to providing large -place Class A office as well as new Class A or B space configured for multitenants. Office Strategy 2: Pursue the Concept of a "Los Gatos Innovation Center." The North 40 represents a potential opportunity to accommodate start -up and new ventures and create jobs by establishing a facility providing share -work spaces and social networking /collaboration opportunities. Hotel Strategy 1: Develop Language in the Specific Plan that will Encourage /Permit a New High -end Hotel /Lodging Use at the North 40. The Town should consider a hotel use for the North 40 to expand the Town's inventory of high -end hotel properties and complete an overall amenity package at the North 40. Meeting Space Strategy 1: Incorporate Meeting Space into a Hotel Development. Since a day conference center typically requires subsidy, the Town should consider incorporating a conference /meeting space use into a new hotel property. To meet the large meeting space gap in the Market Area, Los Gatos could consider requiring as has the City of Cupertino a space with a capacity for up to 400 to 500 as a condition of hotel use. The hotel would have to be sized over 150 to 200 rooms to support such a meeting space. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 11 of 150 it e' scfi ption The North 40 site is located in the Town of Los Gatos within Santa Clara County. The North 40 area is bounded to the east by Los Gatos Boulevard, to the west by Highway 17, to the south by Lark Avenue, and to the north by Highway 85, and consists of approximately 44 acres. The area is predominantly agricultural in use, with pockets of existing residential use primarily along Bennett Way, and Burton Road and several nonresidential uses located along Los Gatos Boulevard. The area consists of APNs 424 -07 -009, 010, 024 through 027, 031 through 037, 052 through 054, 060, 063 through 065, 070, 081 through 086, 090, 094 through 096, 099, 100, and 424 -06 -115, 116, and 129. The site slopes downward slightly to the west from Los Gatos Boulevard. Figure 1: Site Map Source: Google Earth Pro North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 13 of 150 Olte Location The North 40 Specific Plan Area (the "North 40 ") is located at the intersection of Highway 17, which connects Santa Cruz to Silicon Valley, and Highway 85, which swings through western Santa Clara County from Moffett Field in Mountain View to South San Jose. In addition, Los Gatos Boulevard, a busy commercial thoroughfare, runs along the eastern edge of the site. These highways carry substantial volumes of traffic, making the North 40 well positioned in terms of both vehicular access and visibility for a variety of commercial uses. The North 40's location at the crossroads of the West Valley's freeway system makes it easy to reach many of the region's major attractions. Situated in Los Gatos amidst Santa Clara County's affluent residential belt, the North 40 is proximate to both the scenic Santa Cruz Mountains and the nodes of high technology that define Silicon Valley. The following two tables (Tables 1 and 2) detail distances and drive times between the North 40 and the region's key attractions and major employers, respectively. (Note that the list of major employers is limited to the Market Area as defined for the office and hotel markets.) A discussion of the strategic importance of these nearby "demand generators" is provided in the analytical sections that follow. 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Telecommunications Campbell 1.8 Xilinx Inc. Semiconductors San Jose 2.1 Alain Pinel Realtors Home realty Los Gatos 2.4 Verizon Telecommunications Los Gatos 2.7 eBay Inc. E- commerce San Jose 4.8 O'Connor Hospital Health care San Jose 6.6 Trend Micro Inc. Software Cupertino 7.7 Oracle Corp. Information technology Cupertino (f) 7.9 Pegasystems (formerly Chordiant) Software Cupertino 8.0 Hewlett - Packard Co. (g) Information technology Cupertino 10.2 Apple Inc. Computers /consumer Cupertino (f) 10.6 electronics Drive Time (minutes) (b) (c) Employees (d) 2 1,850 4 200 3 2,000 6 900 7 700 7 250 7 1,320 7 220 8 200 (e) 9 3,300 10 1,315 13 250 14 8,000 (f) 14 285 15 3,000 15 10,000 (f) Public Sector Employers Los Gatos Union School District School district Los Gatos 1.3 4 300 Los Gatos - Saratoga High School District School district Los Gatos 2.1 6 300 Santa Clara Valley Medical Center Health care San Jose 5.7 10 4,935 San Jose /Evergreen Comm. College District Higher education San Jose (f) 6.0 12 1,200 (f) Cupertino Union School District School district Cupertino 8.2 15 1,679 Foothill /De Anza Comm. College District Higher education Cupertino (f) 8.7 13 1,241 (f) Notes: (a) Large retailers were omitted from the table as they are unlikely to generate demand for either conference space or overnight room stays. (b) Distances and drive times are reported for the headquarters or principal office location within the Market Area. (c) Drive times calculated from the intersection of Lark Ave. and Los Gatos Blvd. using Google Maps. (d) Estimates drawn from different sources with different standards of reporting. Therefore, while some figures represent full -time equivalent employees, others represent full- and part-time employees. (e) Number of employees reported for 2009 because 2010 data was not available. However, as Town of Los Gatos records show employment remaining flat between 2005 and 2009, this assumption is deemed fair and accurate. (f) Number of employees are reported for all of Silicon Valley. Estimates of the number located solely within the Market Area were not available. (g) HP has sold its Cupertino offices to Apple and plans to consolidate its workforce in Palo Alto by October 2012. Sources: Silicon Valley /San Jose Business Journal; Town of Los Gatos: City of Campbell; City of Cupertino; City of San Jose, 2010; County of Santa Clara; BAE, 2011. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 17 of 150 Dernographic Overview In this section BAE presents background information on current and projected demographic and economic conditions in the Town of Los Gatos and the Retail Trade Area. For comparison purposes, data from Santa Clara County as a whole and the Bay Area are also provided. Developing a profile of how Los Gatos and surrounding communities have changed —and are expected to change —helps to identify key factors that will influence future market conditions, and to assess the potential impacts of prospective development on existing commercial properties and centers. This analysis utilizes data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, the California Employment Development Department (EDD), the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), and Claritas —a private vendor that provides estimates of current and future demographic conditions. Definition of Retail Trade Area vs. Market Area One goal of this research effort is to provide an overview of the market demand for several commercial real estate products under consideration as uses of the North 40 Specific Plan properties (North 40), including: retail, office, hotel, and meeting space. In a densely urbanized area such as Western Silicon Valley (West Valley), commercial activity extends across political boundaries. Residents of Los Gatos will travel to Campbell, San Jose, and beyond to work and shop, and vice versa. Therefore, when analyzing the demand for new commercial development, it is critical to identify the population that can reasonably be expected to use the development in question, rather than just the population living in the immediate vicinity. In this analysis, two such broader geographies are used: the Retail Trade Area (the "RTA ") and the Office /Hotel/Meeting Space Market Area (the "Market Area "). While these two areas share much in common, they feature distinct boundaries that reflect the fact that retail activity in the West Valley follows a different geographic logic than business activity, which encompasses office, hotel, and meeting uses. The following section defines the RTA and Market Area according to these distinct logics. Retail Trade Area For most consumers, the decision about whether or not to shop at a certain retail outlet is determined in large part by travel time and whether or not there is a comparable outlet that can be reached in less time. Since the potential retail outlets to be located on the site are still unknown, BAE has chosen a retail trade area that reflects that the site is likely to draw from beyond Los Gatos itself. Since the larger West Valley area contains an abundance of retail opportunities, as a starting point a 10- minute drive time was used in delineating the retail trade area. However, as shown in Figure 2, a geography based on drive time is highly irregular, skewed by the impact of North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 19 of 150 OS T 3o OZ aged ,C2ajujjS luouidolana(l ssaatsng pue dpn ;S aaxjeN uLid ogtoadS Xlzo3 cpzoN •sortD so-1 ul sapou pulaz $upscxa uo sloeduu lequalod of iaadsaz ql!m oueuaas ,,asea;siom, L;LgT sa.msse sis,fJMO aqx io; Laze sap 3uisn `zanamog *Lazy apezd, lteza-d paugap sign aplslno moz3 szaddogs Ieuopippe imille ,SLUG 01, gazoN agx w xtuc liLjaz alumiln aqy sagmnlioddo $utddogs algeltenL Isosolo aql juasaidaz dsg aqz do suogzod paztuegzn azouz aql puL S0113D so-1 `aUIIJ anup aInutuc -0T e puo,Saq anti dtw seaze asaga3o sluaplsaz aligM 'suiejunoN znzD ezueS aqa ut sapisipq padolanap ,Ciasztds ssLducooua ,Cagy `plogsazcll olnuicu -0l aql puo63q yy21 aq;3o sauepunoq ac0 puedxo ,Clssox3 sapoD diZ acuos aitgm zLgl aaoN •panizap oq uLa mop salts Ilmaz algegac azout pue otgdez3ocuap gotgm zo3 eazL ue almio of zapzo ut sopoD diZ 3o dnozi 3utpuodsauoa P oaut acute anizp pajelsue4 snip seq gyg -sapislliq se qons sauepunoq atgdez8oa3 put? s,fLmaaz} Fiqure 2: Retail Trade Area 0 2 4 8 Miles Source: BAE, 2011. 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Table 4: Population Projections, 2010 -2030 Projected % Change Geography 2010(a) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010.2030 Town of Los Gatos (b) 29,600 29,900 30,000 30,000 30,100 1.7% Retail Trade Area (c) 165,900 168,400 171,500 173,100 174,500 5.2% Santa Clara County 1,822,000 1,945,300 2,063,100 2,185,800 2,310,800 26.8% 9- County Bay Area (d) 7,341,700 7,677,500 8,018,000 8,364,900 8,719,300 18.8% (a) ABAG Projections were completed prior to release of Census 2010, and thus estimates for 2010 may differ from previous table. (b) Based on Town boundaries, not Sphere of Influence. (c) ABAG does not publish projections for sub -city areas. Therefore, the Market Area is treated as the Town of Los Gatos and the Cities of Monte Sereno, Saratoga, Cupertino, and Campbell, as well as their respective Spheres of Influence. San Jose is excluded in its entirety because the majority of the city is located outside of the Market Area. (d) The Bay Area consists of the Counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Selene, and Sonoma. Sources: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2009; BAE, 2011. Household growth trends between 2000 and 2010 mirror those population trends described above. Between 2000 and 2010, Los Gatos added only 367 new households, amounting to a 0.3 percent compound annual rate of growth. The RTA added 10,203 new households. Santa Clara County and the Bay Area added households at a slightly higher rate than the RTA. Household size changed very little in the Town, the RTA, the County, or the State. As shown in Table 5, Los Gatos in 2010 featured a much lower average household size (2.35 persons), than either the RTA at 2.69 persons per household or Santa Clara County, with 2.90 persons per household, featured the largest households, on average. The Bay Area had an average household size in 2010 of 2.69 persons. respective Spheres of Influence. San Jose is excluded in its entirety because the majority of the City is located outside of the RTA. 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As of 2010, approximately 63 and 61 percent of households in Los Gatos and the RTA, respectively, owned the homes in which they lived, as compared to 58 and 56 percent in the County and Bay Area, respectively. Taken together, these data indicate that the Town of Los Gatos and the RTA feature above - average levels of per capita income and homeownership, both of which likely translate to increased consumer spending. Table 6: Income, 2010 % Renter - Occupied Occupied 63.0% 37.0% 61.4% Median 57.6% 42.4% Household Per Capita Geography Income Income Town of Los Gatos $115,371 $64,227 Retail Trade Area (a) $94,264 $45,613 Santa Clara County $90,581 $39,549 9- County Bay Area (b) $78,981 $38,282 (a) See Figure 2 for definition of the Retail Trade Area. (b) The Bay Area consists of the Counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Merin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma. Sources: Clantas, 2010; BAE, 2011. Table 7: Owner and Renter Occupancy, 2010 Geouraohv Town of Los Gatos Retail Trade Area (a) Santa Clara County 9- County Bay Area (b) Occupied Housing Units % Owner- % Renter - Occupied Occupied 63.0% 37.0% 61.4% 38.6% 57.6% 42.4% 56.2% 43.8% Notes: (a) See Figure 2 for definition of the Retail Trade Area. (b) The Bay Area consists of the Counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marm, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma. Sources: U.S. Census 2010; BAE, 2011. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 27 of 150 OS I do 8Z aied BalezlS luowdolanaQ ssouisng pue ,(pniS )31juW ueld ogloadS (pog gizoN •(6 alge,L aas) olgnop ,(lzeau of luoui ,(olduioun Oulsneo ,(laniloodsaz `ivaozad S l pue luaomod 91 Xg lla3 (IL noo Lml:) eiueS pue soleD so-I ui sluoplsw pa ,(oldum to .iaqumu oq j •isnq lauzalul oql fo llnsaz e se ,(lpa3lzem lla3 Ltiam ,(oldwa 'b00Z Pue OOOZ uaamiag 'luouiXolduca leuoi2oi m sa�?uego a8.mi pasneo gocgm3o ipoq `apeoap )sed aqi }o osmoo aqi .cano Sala ,(a alwouooa oml auo�zapun seq Xjunoo eiLID eiueS `b azn3lg ul umogs sv LLOZ '3VO 'OOOZ 'a6eped 6uluueld uollepodsueil snsuap :sawnoS %V64 99Z'86 eajV olul 6ugnwwoo sva>I7oM %0'OOL OZ6'96L 19101 %L"9 LL 696696 6Z 6lunoo eielo eiueS aplsino ajaymosl3 %E 6£ L6Z'89 Qunoo eje10 eiueS ul GJaym9sl3 909 999'00L eaiV apwl pelaa ul WWI % jagwnN aouaplsaa ;o aoeld %0'99 6Z6'98L eaiV ;o ino 6ugnwwoo sluap!saa %0'00 L V69'LSZ 19701 %C6 9L0 8Z ,qunoo ejelo eiueS aplsino acaymasl3 %£'99 £L6'891 ,qunoo eiep eiueS ul waLlmasl3 %0 999'00 L eaiV aped peiaa ul leiol % aagwnN 31JOM 10 aaeld OOOZ'smol_j zalnwwo3 :g algel '(000`86) ut painmmoa pup zagmnu acp uegl slseq,(llep e ao V jd ag13o ino painmiuoo (OOO'L8I) szaIzom" m se oolmi Xlq$noz'oloclm aqi up 'azagmasla umz3 ul painwiuoo yyg aqi oplsui 2uplzom snc .iom asoili jo woozad 61, ,Sluo allgm'�lzom o; azagmasla paintumoa VI-H aqi aplsul 2ucplsaz szailzomp luaazad S9 'OOOZdo sV aplsaz ,(aqi azagm uegl zaglez 3pom ,(acp azagm of zasop dogs of moogo ,(ew szaNzom asogl se 'sales jo ssol leilualod e luasazdaz ino Sugnuuuoa alnlm `sales Ilelaz zoj pueump 3o aoinos pioiuppe ue Iuasazdaz yyg aip o)ui Suunuuuoa sza7pom osneoaq iiodaz snip o7 isazamijo on smoU asaq L olge[Iene aze elep Bons gotgm .ioj .rea,( Iuaoaz Isom aqi 'OOOZ cil V.LH aql jo ino pue ul smolt zalnmwoo uo uolleuuolul sueeiuoa 8 olq?31 spue.al;uawAoidw3 Figure 4: Employment Trends in the Civilian Labor Force, 2000 -March 2011 Town of Los Gatos 17,500 17,000 N c 16,500 d y 16,000 m 15,500 d 0 15,000 a E lasoo W 14,000 13,500 0 N O 0 O & (°, % & NO N^ o 0dO,o o 0o ff,o Io dd0 do ,y0 r o N �a Employment Unemployment Rate Santa Clara County 8.0% d 7.0% 6.0% d 5.0% E 0 4.0°r E N 3.0% 2.0% d a 1.0% y K 0.0% Employment —Unemployment Rate Sources: California Employment Development Department; BAE, 2011. Between 2004 and 2008, the economy underwent a recovery. However, only about a third of the jobs lost during the Internet bust were recaptured, reflecting the fact that the dot -com "bubble' at the onset of the decade led to unrealistic employment inflation. The mid - decade recovery, North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 29 of 150 950,000 ------ _---- --------- —__ __._._______ __._._____._______..._.____..,. 12.0% i m 925,000 A ....._.. ... ._... ._ _ _ ._ _ _ __ _ ___ _____ , 75 N 10.0% E 900,0008.0% E a 875000 ;___ ____ -___ _..._____._. _ ___.______ _J /___ o 850,000 —__ __.._. ____ ._._....._ .._.__..._.__._ ___.___ 6.0% E 825 000 4.0% E 800,000 �`" — - -i d w � 2.0% M 775,000 j ------ ------- _ d ��..,c �.�.^° _ K 750,000 .._.., �__.____ - __ _ _. 0.0% 00 O� 00' 00 Ob Oy OF' 01 5§5 O°j NO �^ ,tio ,10 ,10 ,10 ,y0 ,10 ,10 ry0 ,10 ,y0 11,0 r,yo tr a° Employment —Unemployment Rate Sources: California Employment Development Department; BAE, 2011. Between 2004 and 2008, the economy underwent a recovery. However, only about a third of the jobs lost during the Internet bust were recaptured, reflecting the fact that the dot -com "bubble' at the onset of the decade led to unrealistic employment inflation. The mid - decade recovery, North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 29 of 150 OS [ 30 0£ 0Ond ,CSalezlS )uawdolaeaQ ssouisng pue ,Cpn1S Impew ueld ogjoadS /Clzo3 gpoK -u[epooun suieutaz luam/, oldwojo SJolooleq uua) -Suol ay g2nogl `jpj of uaoq seq soigdea$o0S gloq ul luauuXolduzaun 3o ales aql `0 [ OZ uc Runlead zaljV -alogm use ,t)unoo ag1 ui 1u0otad ual nano of posoddo se `)uoosad a0n0e iopun sem soleg so7 ui luouLColduiaun `I [OZ goaeyq ;o sV •opeaap snolnaid aql pozpaloeze11a legs slsnq umoq aimouoaa om) otp g3nozgl ,C1unoD otll3o;soi aql ul uegl zamol Xpualscsuoa pouleuzai solug so-I ul ales 1uaut,Soldmaun aq1 1eg1 palou aq pinogs 1I -zolaas uo[)on.gsuoo agl ul luotu,Coldmaun gSlq Xpualslsiod of anp slOeal poluopaaasdun of pa)llds seq )uauLColduiaun `;sng lauzalul ag10) Oellela.a Ileus uaaq aneg gsezo )sale[ aql $uunp paunoul sossol qof aq1 g2noill )snq 1xlzem Sulsnog oql Xq pasands uocssaoaz aplmuoguu 011101 xjoa ije[ Sulmo `,Clgezapisuoo poulloap sell xwou000 IeuoiSaz aq) `800Z ooulS -000Z ul panargoe luauc,So[duw3o s[ana[ Xeod aql o16.lanoaas 01 peal lou plp `azo30jagl Table 9: Employment Trends in the Civilian Labor Force, 2000 -March 2011 (a) Data represent annual averages of monthly labor force data. Based on March 2011 benchmark. (b) Civilian Labor Force refers to workers by place of residence. Sums may not equal parts due to independent rounding. Sources: California Employment Development Department; BAE, 2011. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 31 of 150 Labor Unemployment Year (a) Force (b) Employment Unemployment Rate 2000 16,800 16,500 300 1.8% 2001 16,700 16,100 500 3.0% 2002 15,600 14,800 900 5.8% 2003 14,900 14,100 800 5.4% 2004 14,600 13,900 600 4.1% 2005 14,500 14,000 500 3.4% 2006 14,600 14,200 400 2.7% 2007 15,000 14,600 500 33% 2008 15,400 14,800 600 3.9% 2009 15,200 14,100 1,100 7.2% 2010 15,200 14,000 1,100 7.2% March 2011 15,200 14,100 1,000 6.6% Change 2000.2010 Number -1,600 -2,500 -300 Avg. Annual % Change -1.0% -1.6% 13.9% Santa Clara County Labor Unemployment Year (a) Force (b) Employment Unemployment Rate 2000 940,700 911,600 29,200 3.1% 2001 939,500 891,800 47,700 5.1% 2002 891,600 816,900 74,700 8.4% 2003 850,100 779,200 71,000 8.4% 2004 824,900 771,700 53,200 6.4% 2005 817,000 773,200 43,700 5.3% 2006 823,600 786,700 36,900 4.5% 2007 845,100 805,600 39,500 4.7% 2008 869,700 818,000 51,800 6.0% 2009 874,300 779,400 94,900 10.9% 2010 874,000 776,500 97,400 11.1% March 2011 871,600 781,700 89,900 10.3% Change 2000.2010 Number - 66,700 - 135,100 68,200 Avg. Annual % Change -0.7% -1.6% 12.8% (a) Data represent annual averages of monthly labor force data. Based on March 2011 benchmark. (b) Civilian Labor Force refers to workers by place of residence. Sums may not equal parts due to independent rounding. Sources: California Employment Development Department; BAE, 2011. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 31 of 150 Retail Market rnent Existing Retail Real Estate C o n d i t i on This chapter profiles existing retail real estate conditions in the Retail Trade Area (RTA) and Los Gatos. The RTA has a large number of retail nodes and centers potentially competitive with the North 40, and also with existing retail centers and districts in Los Gatos. This chapter summarizes overall market trends in the regional and local retail real estate market, followed by brief profiles of some of the key retail nodes in Los Gatos and the RTA. The analysis here is based on several area tours, interviews with brokers handling retail properties, and additional research including online searches and contacts with store operators and staff in Los Gatos and other jurisdictions in the area. The next chapter discusses retail sales and provides a leakage analysis, and the chapter following that summarizes the retail market assessment. Retail Real Estate Market Conditions In any retail market, existing retail space is vacated on a regular basis due to functional obsolescence or the general cycle of retail closures and openings over time. For instance, until recently there had been a long -teen trend in the supermarket industry toward larger stores and consolidation, with older stores reused by "second generation" tenants such as dollar stores, furniture outlets, and even non - retail uses such as fitness centers.' Thus any retail market is likely to have a certain percentage of vacant space due to normal turnover and changes in retailing; in fact, some amount of vacancies keeps rents more affordable and prevents the market from stagnating due to roadblocks to the entry of new competitors. Overall, the retail real estate market in Los Gatos has fared well through the current economic downturn. According to Terranomics, a major regional retail brokerage firm, at the end of 2010, the retail vacancy rate in Los Gatos was 5.0 percent, well within normal ranges for commercial vacancies.' Overall, West County' showed a vacancy rate of 5.5 percent at year -end 2010. Countywide, the reported rate was somewhat higher, at 6.7 percent. Within the RTA, Cupertino showed the highest vacancy rate, at 18.5 percent. The 5.0 percent rate for Los Gatos was up from 3.7 percent at year -end 2009, but because of the size of the inventory covered for the Town, a single vacant space of approximately 10,000 square feet could cause this fluctuation. Brokers More recently, niche grocery stores such as Trader Joe's, Fresh & Easy, Grocery Outlet, and ethnic supermarkets have started to occupy smaller spaces that are either new or that have been vacated by supermarket chain stores, in some cases subdividing a larger supermarket space and only using a portion of it. Santa Clara County Retail Report, Year -End 2010, Terranomics. It is important to note that Terranomics does not necessarily cover all retail space in an area, but the trends shown should be indicative of overall market conditions. 11 Defined by Terranomics as Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Saratoga, and Los Gatos. 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These three centers are in San Jose clustered near the border with Saratoga, approximately eight minutes drive time from the North 40 site.' Westgate Mall is a 645,000 square -foot center which opened in 1961, with renovations in 1989 and 1996. It is configured in part as a traditional enclosed mall, and in part has stores facing outward, and it is no longer anchored by traditional department stores; instead, the largest stores is a Target, and another former department store space is co- anchored by a Nordstrom Rack and a Burlington Coat Factory. Other tenants include Old Navy, Ross, Barnes & Noble, Any Mountain, and Safeway. Westgate West is a235,768 square -foot open -air center with Trader Joe's CVS, and Orchard Supply Hardware. This center is owned by Grosvenor, the developer for the North 40, and opened in 1965. El Pasco de Saratoga is a 340,949 square -foot I All drive times measured from the Boulevard Tavern on Los Gatos Boulevard, using MapQuest. 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There is a Best Buy fronting Almaden Expressway adjacent to this former Expo Design Center. The Plant. The Plant is a value- oriented power center at the eastern edge of the RTA at Monterey Highway and Curtner Avenue in San Jose, 13 minutes drive time from the North 40 site. Opened in 2007, the Plant totals 643,325 square feet, anchored by Target and Home Depot, with Best Buy, Toys R Us /Babies R Us and Ross as other major tenants. Westfield Valley Fair. This upscale regional mall is located at the northern edge of the RTA, straddling the San Jose /Santa Clara border," nine minutes drive time from the North 40 site. Originally opened as two centers in the 1950s and consolidated into one large mall in the late 1980s, the center has seen substantial remodeling and reconfiguration over the years, and currently includes approximately 1.5 million square feet of space. Anchor tenants include Nordstrom, Macy's, and Macy's Men's & Home, with over 250 additional stores. The center has approved plans for an additional 550,000 square -foot expansion, possibly including Neiman Marcus and Bloomingdale's as additional anchors, but these plans have been on hold pending economic recovery. There is a movie theater complex just to the south of this center on Winchester Boulevard. Santana Row. An upscale open -air lifestyle center, Santana Row first opened in 2003, and is located directly across Stevens Creek Boulevard from Westfield Valley Fair, with additional construction occurring since then, including retail, office, and residential space. This mixed -use complex currently includes 582,000 square feet of retail space, and also includes residential, office, and hotel uses, in an attempt to create an environment resembling an urban Main Street. Tenants include Best Buy, Anthropologie, Brooks Brothers, Crate & Barrel, and the six - screen CineArts Santana Row movie theater complex showing a mix of first -run major movies and independent, foreign, and documentary films. While dominated by formula retailers, the retail mix of this center somewhat resembles that of downtown Los Gatos in targeting higher - income shoppers and in the mix of shops and dining, and its opening was the subject of concern among retailers in Los Gatos. The impacts of its opening on Downtown are discussed later in this report in the sales analysis chapter. Hitachi Site. At the far eastern edge of the RTA on Cottle Road near where Highway 85 terminates at U.S. 101 at I 1 minutes drive time from the North 40 site, is a 100 -acre site proposed for both residential and commercial development, with 30 acres entitled for retail development, adjacent to a Lowe's and an Orchard Supply Hardware, with a Walmart across Monterey Highway. While the map of the RTA shows this center as inside its boundaries, the center uses a Santa Clara Zip Code that is not included in the RTA definition. Thus the sales in this center are not part of those reported for the RTA. 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SBOE lists 243 retail businesses in the Core, across all the major retail categories. The largest concentrations are in apparel, eating and drinking, and other retail. Approximately one -third of businesses are in the "all other outlets" category, which includes wholesale, industry, and business and personal services. Table 11 provides a more detailed breakdown of these categories for the Downtown Core; the majority of the other outlets are also consumer oriented personal services businesses (e.g., hair salons). 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Iwej/ plelnl 6p!8 saoue!!ddyls6u!gs!wnj awoH sallddnS olny g sla!eea olny (e).4o6aluo ssoulsne 060Z led Al Aq sosseulsnq umolumo4 :OL elgel Table 11: Downtown Core Business Detail, 2010 Business Category (a) Auto Dealers & Auto Supplies Home Furnishings /Appliances Bldg. Matrl. /Farm Implements Food Stores Service Stations Apparel Stores General Merchandise Stores Eating and Drinking Places Other Retail Stores Art, Gift, Novelties Boat/Motorcyc le Cigar Stores Florists Jewelry Stores Liquor Stores Music Stores Office Eqpmt Store Count Second Hand Stores Specialty Stores Sporting Goods Stationery/Books Other Retail Subtotal Retail Stores Total All Other Outlets Business To Business Personal Services Miscellaneous All Other Outlets Subtotal Total Number % of Total 2 0.6% 26 7.2% 5 1A% 13 3.6% 1 0.3% 50 13.9% 1 0.3% 59 16.4% 8 2.2% 1 0.3% 2 0.6% 2 0.6% 12 3.3% 2 0.5% 2 0.6% 1 0.3% 4 1.1% 44 12.2 0 5 4% 3 0.8% 86 23.9% 243 67.5% 36 10.0% 65 18.1% 16 4.4% 117 32.5% 360 100% Sources: SBOE; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Muni Services; Town of Los Gatos; BAE, 2011. In the North subarea, there are some larger stores, especially Walgreens and the soon -to -open rebuilt and expanded Safeway,14 and conventional strip centers such as the Walgreens Center and the Los Gatos Shopping Center, with stores set back from the street by parking lots. The mix of retail types, as well as the leakage analysis for Los Gatos as discussed in the next chapter, indicate that Downtown is seen as a retail destination, drawing shoppers from Los Gatos as well as other nearby communities. Interviews with retailers, brokers, and other key informants confirmed this. Because of a lack of retail, Monte Sereno and Saratoga residents in particular appear to be attracted to Los Gatos for both the downtown specialty shops, as well as the convenience - oriented retail in the Downtown North area and on Los Gatos Boulevard. For instance, the re- opening Safeway will be the closest supermarket to Monte Sereno residents. Grand opening is set for August 26, 2011. htro:i; sal'ewavdosvotownloseatosxom, accessed July 15, 2011. A list of key informants can be found in Appendix F. 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Because of the retail mix this area serves largely as a shopping destination for everyday needs (aside from the remaining new car dealers), complementing the Downtown's more specialized and region - serving mix. This was confirmed by the key informants interviewed, although there are some specialty shops such as the Wooden Toy Horse Store which draw from a broader area. The remaining new car dealers are Moore Buick, Los Gatos Acura, and Los Gatos Luxury Cars. In recent years, Los Gatos Boulevard has lost Chevrolet, Honda, and Ford dealerships as the automotive industry has restructured in the face of declining sales. There are a variety of auto - related ancillary businesses, which include car rental facilities, auto repair, and auto parts outlets. In addition to the three supermarkets mentioned above, there is a Nob Hill Foods in the El Gato Village center. Rite Aid is located in the Blossom Hill Shopping Center with Whole Foods, and CVS /Pharmacy is in Kings Court with Lunardi's. The CVS is moving to a free - standing store in the near future on the former site of the Chevrolet dealership. There are also plans for approximately 30,000 square feet of commercial space on the former site of the Ford dealership (see Appendix B for planned and proposed developments). Other retail in the area includes a broad variety of restaurants, one of the Town's two hardware stores, Los Gatos Ace Hardware, and an Office Depot across from the North 40 site. Unlike Downtown, several of the restaurants are fast -food franchises such as McDonald's and Jack -in- the -Box. Neighborhood Serving Centers. Los Gatos has four major neighborhood centers, as shown in above in Figure 6: • Rinconada Center • Downing Center • Walgreens Square • Vasona Station These centers are convenience - oriented, with anchors and other stores that largely serve nearby residents rather that attracting a regional clientele. Interestingly, these neighborhood centers are all located at or near the Town boundaries, thus attracting shoppers from outside the Town since they represent the closest grocery or drug store shopping. The two supermarkets and two drug stores in these centers thus contribute to the Town's capture of sales even in local- serving retail categories, as discussed in the leakage analysis. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 43 of 150 OS 13o bb o2ed 62a)ea1S luamdolanaQ ssautsng pue /Cpn1S iol-m q ueld olgloodS , Ijo,d glzoN oloZ ui awll Alm° ae annoy, sassauisnq snpnLaul (sonpoid Xineaq )Las osle legl suolus atpq `B,a) sam( os luuosaad pue saatrelaa su gnns `gammas lsnf uugl aoglua sump olquNm pas lugl asogl �[uo snga on polsil sassmsnq aql `s &n1sl1 HouS aq1 ut Lou on saxes sales loapoo of pannboa 1ou sassoutsnq lelp muse aouo 310N -osle sa)uaa oql ui sossauisnq paluauo -DOUJO leaanas 31L aaagy -llagdule,7 of )uaae(pe XTvpunoq umo 1, alp le paenalnog aalsagoucM uo pe,leaol sl IQIU33 slgy -aeg W alueaolslg s,opld s[ sllMMUIsaa aql }o lsatsnq pue )sa2ael aqy -slueane)saa /Claelnopiud `sossoutsnq aallems 3o xim e st li `pealsul (paluauo- uopduoswd dla2ael sc )all 6oeuuegd llems e sr aaaq) g2nogile) gaols 2nap uiega aofeut ao I3liuuuodns e Xq paaogoue )ou sc uotlelS euosen aalleuis agl `Saa)uao poogaogq2pu aacgo atp a>lqun 'plan snoauellaasnu aaglo pue `slumnelsaa aaagl `saatnaas leuosaad jo umlaodoad gOiq e 2ucpnlom `sassautsnq aallems fo aagmnu e seq aaluao aq) `,ioeuuegd oql of uoilippe uI so)eD so-1 jo uogjod ulalsea oql u[ riot• ueS gllm aapaoq agl uo `aaenbS suooAleM ao3 lueuol zogoue a p si suooAleM 'SODIAaas leuosaad pue ssoutsnq pue `slueanelsas `saao)s pejoi3o xitu e ur sassauisnq aallems3o aaqumu e sapnlam pue `SAO e pue SemapS e Xq paaogoue osle si 'llagdmeZ) ql ?m aapaoq aql uo umoy a1g So uotpod )samtpaou aql ui `aaluan epeuoaut'd 'Saa[AaaS pue sossouisnq llems aaglo pue slumnelsaa `dogs luamuSisuoo e `aaols aonbg e 2ulpnpui saao)s Iletus aaglo 3o xau e gltm `6ema;eS e Xq paaogoue si .ialuoD 2uiumoQ %OOL 19 %£'E£ L LOZ'3V9'so1e0 soq to umol :soolNoS IunW sogsgelS jogel to neamg S'n'3oes :sawnos walsAs uogeogwelo 309S ialpea pue LOOZ aqj uo paseq we wa4 pasn sauo6aleo (e) of Ll %001. OL %OOl %L Y7 8 %O OZ Z %6 8E Bl %OOL u %L% %L'99 BE %679 6 °/x0'09 9 %119 LL %£'£9 OL M61 Ll %9'£Z b %0'OL L %ZZZ 6 %Z 91 Z %L'BZ 91 %9'n £ %0'04 b %ZZZ b %L lb S %E "9 E %6'9 L %OM 1 %9'9 L %0'0 - /9l L /000 - /00 - /0'0 - %E 8 L /8'L L %65 L /00 - /000 - %0'0 - %9'9 9 %00 001 t %L IL Z %L'N Z %0'0 - %0'0 - /0'0 - /0'0 %0'0 - %81 L 00 0 %0'0 - %0'0 - /0'0 - %0'0 %0'0 - 1e10110 % aagwnN 1 11010110% jagwnN lelol)o % aagwnN 1010110 % aagwnN 1e10110 % aagwnN telol I jajunbSsuaaj6jemj uoOe1S euoseA lialueoepeuomiN I aaluo0 6ulumo0 elol slalln0 ja41011tl lelol MOTS Oelem salols Ilelaid 10410 saoeld 6ulluuO pue 6uge3 swots as!Pue4olaW lelauao saiolS Iweddy suogels aotNas salols pooj sluawaldwt wej/ pletq 6plg saouegddyjs6ulgstwn j awolj sagddnS olny g wlean olny (e) No6aleo ssautsng OLOZ IedAl. Rq sassaulsne sla3uaO pooq.lOgg6laN :gL algel v� saa)uaa poogaogg2pu og13o goea ao; adXI Xq sassouisnq jo xcm oql sluasaad olge) &t.mollo3 aq,p Retail Market Asses ment Sales I Leakage Analysis This section examines retail sales conditions in Los Gatos and the Retail Trade Area (RTA). Data for the Town and the RTA are presented, along with comparative data from Santa Clara County and California. The analysis presents an overview of retail sales focusing on categories that might represent the primary competition with retail at the North 40 site. A leakage analysis for the Town and the RTA is undertaken to identify the relative strength of major retail sectors. The primary source of information on general retail expenditures in California is the taxable retail sales data published by the State Board of Equalization (SBOE). SHOE publishes Taxable Sales in California, a quarterly and annual publication that reports taxable sales by major store categories by city and county. With adjustments made to take into account nontaxable sales such as food and prescriptions, this source usually offers the best baseline data forjurisdictions for which it is available. However, beginning in 2009 SHOE used a new categorization of businesses that makes comparisons with earlier data and a continued time series difficult if not impossible. Because of the limitations with SHOE data with respect to availability for subareas of larger cities such as San Jose which makes up a large portion of the RTA, and for unincorporated areas (which also constitute part of the RTA), the leakage analysis itself utilizes estimates based on 2008 Zip Code and County Business Patterns employment data benchmarked to adjusted data on sales per employee from the 2007 Economic Census, with adjustments by category made based on crosschecks with SHOE data and to reflect more current conditions. The use of this data source also allows analysis by far more detail by retail sector. Estimated Retail Sales in Los Gatos and the RTA by Major Retail Category As noted above, retail sales data for the overall RTA cannot be derived from the available taxable sales data, since those data are not published separately for sales in the portion of San Jose which is in the RTA or for the unincorporated portions of the RTA. Furthermore, because of disclosure issues, the level of detail available for some of the cities in the RTA is insufficient for the analysis here. In order to compare actual expenditures for all RTA residents with potential expenditures by store category, an alternative estimate methodology for estimating sales for the overall RTA has been developed. This point -in -time estimate can then also account for the entire population of the RTA to derive per capita sales estimates for use in comparison with a benchmark for the leakage analysis. For comparative purposes, similar estimates have been derived for the Town of Los Gatos, Santa Clara County, and California. These estimates have been derived using the most recent available data from the Census of Retail Trade and Zip Code Business Patterns. These estimates provide point -in -time data for the Town North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 45 of 150 OS 30 9b aded X2olezlS luautdo[anaQ ssau!sng pue Xpn1S la3[zelnl ueld og!oodS ,C;zo3 quom 'uagt pouts dtgeuap`suoo pougoop aneq sates a[onlan totow `elep BOSS oql utoi3 uaas oq I pm se tgooZ oro13 sates pa'ieutyso aAe asagt `polou sy 'saarn13s Fmtalea se pam se `siueznetsai3o sod/,I ue sopntou, 6aoSaieo slyy 'oatsoO sa yans swots asnogatem pup, `pemteM se gans salols luauaedap lunoosip s,,Coeyv se qons saiots lumlivolop teuogepeu opntoui satduipxg 'osipuegmaui jo aouet peoiq e pas pup sajots sapntoul u 'soleD so-I a! zoloos I!elaz oql ut sossou)jeam pue sill2 ails ;o zoleotpui lszg e on ,Cto3aleo Xq sales el!deo zad 3o suogzodozd aql `aznlatd paugaz azouz e luosazd [[!m oql alnlm 'sazols as!pmulozaut [ezauA Pee dnoz2 spnialeut Rulppnq ogl axe sales el!dea zad ui yl,g aql Ouc le[ szolaas Xluo aql `'VId oql ui pano3 slang[ aql ao!ml uegl azout le sales elldeo zad aneq szolaas [ezanaS 'sa!gdw2oaO aazgl sagio aql zo3 Allenuue 000`bt$ uegl ssal of pandutoo Xllenuue £S9`SZ$ le `zl$!q ollnb aze soleg so-1 u! sales pelaz `s!seq elldeo zad e up •sa!gduu?oA zaglo aql .to3 suo!lzodozd aql molaq [lam `sazois os!puegozayN [ezauao m sales ou lsoutle smogs umol aqy -a3elS agl zo `,ClunoD aql °yy2[ aql to puno3 autp zag2T Xlgezap!suoo oau salts azois poo3 pue alalgan zolout u! sa[es [!elan [elol s,umo_L ogl3o uoilzodoad oq,l •luaazad g [ le saoeld ScnXu!zp pue saa!nzas poo3 pue `luaazad £Z le sazols a3ezanaq pue poo3 sales 30 luaozad 0£ le szaleap stied pue alolgan zolout aze sauo4alea lsa�ze[ aazgl agy •(sitllop OIOZ palsnfpe- uotlega! u! paluosa.id oze sales [[e) uoglau S£S$ /�lapunxozdde le poleualso aze 80OZ zol umol, aql zo3 sales [!elan `bl o[gey ut umogs sy SOME) sod 'slopno [!elat -uou le Suuzn000 sales ale loll `s!sXleue aql ut popn[oui lou we (sasnoq uorlone Poe zapzo 1!eut '3•a) sza[!elaz azols -uou le sales saoe[d 0u!3luutg Pee saa!nzas pool BL sza[!eind aaolS snooue[[oosgnl sazolS as!puegoza[n[ [ezauaD sazolS o!snW pue `iloog'Xggoll `spooD 8u!1zodS sazolS sauossooay Su!glo[D pue ftgjolo suollelS aagoseD S3101S azeD leuoszad Poe gl[eag satolS a�ezanag pue pool satlddnS pue 'dtnbg uopzeD put •tiler[ 'OPlg sazolS aoue![ddy Poe sfu1gs1azn3 autoll s.ta[eaQ sued pue a[o!gan zololnl aauo�alea uaealo oluc padnoz$ aaaq aneg sates I!elaz paletullsa aql `azatl s!s,Clene agl3o sasodznd aql log •I x!puoddy u! puno3 aq uea ,C3olopoglaLU ogl3o uolleueldxo zaglzng 'dzoS3mo [!elan pollelap ,Cq VIM aql pue Retail Trade Area The RTA's retail sales for 2008 are estimated at approximately $8.4 billion, about 10 times the sales in Los Gatos alone. While somewhat smaller proportionally than for the Town, motor vehicle and parts dealers, food and beverage stores, and food services and drinking places are the three largest categories for sales. While there are some variations by store category, the RTA's levels of per capita sales are much closer to the countywide and statewide levels than the Town's. Once again, the leakage analysis will present a more refined picture, but these levels of per capita sales relative to the larger areas are indicative of a general balance between the retail supply and demand for the RTA as a whole. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 47 of 150 OS 13o 811 a�?t,d Ool IS yuauldolanaQ ssaulsng put, Xpn;S ImIn N usld al3iaadS duod 1.p ioN 'L LOZ'3V9s0!1s11e1S �ogeq yo neamg'S'(l Isuollelaa leplsnpul ;o lda0 y0 (900Z Pue LOOZ 'swayed ssaulsng 6luno0 Pue apoo d!Z'LOOZ'apeul pelad to snsueo s :snsua0'S'fl OLOZ Pue OOOZ :saomoS *alewgsa sooZ aql ulelgo 01 popad agl iano glmm6lo ales 1UelsnoO e 6ulwnsse'selewllsa 0 LOZ sel!jelo pue OOOZ snsua0 uo paseq panpap seele laMiew aql joy salewllsa uollelndod (q) $ uollllw Isajeau of papuna salewllsa sales 10101 seaje jallews eql io; so0s0elS logeq ;o neamg g'n aql wml xapul a0ud jawnsuo0 eajy Aeg aqi pue'elwolpep iol (sops!lelS iogeq ;o neamg agl wojy elep uo paseq) suolleleil leplsnpul to luawpeda0 e!uwolpe0 ayl lq palelnoleo xapul aopd iewnsuo0 elwo;pe0 pue eajy /eg eql uo paseq siellop 0 LOZ of palsnlpe uaeq aneq sales pelaa (e) paJanoo sapo0 dlZ joy y xlpuaddy aaS sls6leue olgdej6owap agl ui luasaid lou sepo0 d1Z ;anal -lulod awos apnloul )nq'sls6leue solgdej6owap ayl iol se awes ayi aye suo0lu0ap eaje lavyeW slsRleue to awq le e1gellene elep luaoaj lsow sluasajdaj 000Z aiagmasla paluesald sjagwnu 309S of algejedwoo 60oanp aq lou /ew tio6aleo lq elep'sawayos uogezpobaleo u1 saouaiaypp to asneoag 'saoinos aql uaamlaq saloualslsuooul Rq paleopw Be apew sluawlsnfpe awos g1!m'wa1Ju03 of algepene ajagm elep snsuaO 0lwouo03 LOOZ Pue elep 309S lsule6e pa>10ag0 -ssmo uagl aJam anoge luo6ale3 jofew !q svagwnu asaq j snsuaO olwou003 LOOZ ay; wwl apoo SOWN pallelop Rq elep sales aaRoldwe -dad pue elep luawRoldwa swayed ssaulsng R1unoo Pue apoo d1Z 9002 6ulsn Palwaua6 6lleillul aiam salewlse sales :saloN 609'LSS'9E SL£'L9L'L SE9'66S L9Z'6Z (q) uo0elnd0d 90OZ 696'ZL$ 404'£L$ 669'SL$ £S9'9Z$ 099'1$ 696'l$ 9L8' L$ 90Z'0$ £Z£$ OSE$ L£E$ 9Z0'L$ Zb9'L$ 999'1$ LZ£'L$ 0£$ L9Z$ L££$ 9Z0$ 91.9$ ££9$ 1,90, 1$ OL6$ L09'1$ 9ECL$ L09$ 900'1$ 9LL'1.$ 999$ 099$ 699$ E6£'Z$ 6VE8 ZZ I'Z$ 116 'Z$ 9611'9$ 999$ 6116$ ZZO'1$ 099$ 09L$ 1166$ 090'1$ EEC' I$ b£L'Z$ 01.9'Z$ 9Z0'£$ bLS'9$ elwollle0 qunoo easy SoleE) so-1 ejelo Blues 104jew 10 umol 000'9L9'£LY$ 000'01,91 £Z$ 000'L£E'9$ 000'9£9$ 000'91£'09$ 000'8911'£$ 000'SZ C'1.$ 000'£Z L$ 000'66L'L I$ 000'LL9$ 000'ZOZ$ 000'0£$ 000'£1.0'09$ 000'SbL'Z$ 000'96/$ 000'1$ 000'LZS'6$ 000'£6S$ 000'LSZ$ 000'8 L$ 000'9£11'0£$ 000'698'1$ 000'Z9S$ 000'Lb$ 000'O6S'1.b$ 000,Z99, I$ 000'£09$ 000'Z9$ 000'£L£'bZ$ 000'691'1$ 000'9613 000'01$ 000'Z90'LL$ 000'9£L'E$ 000'91£'1$ 000'061.$ 000'99Z'LE$ 000'IL9'1.$ 000'£19$ 000'6 L$ 000'600'LZ$ 000'091'1.$ 000'Z£9$ 000'6£$ 000'£Z6'66$ 000'9Zb'b$ 000'91.8'1$ 00064Z$ e1u10111e3 /Ilunoo easy i S01eg 90-1 elelo e;ues lamleW ;o umol lelol Slallno Ilelau saoeld 6uNup0 pue saolMOS Pooj s�apelaa woiS snoauellaoslW sewolS aslpuegOlaW lwaua0 sajo1S o!s%4 pue 'Moog 'RggoH 'spoo0 buluodS saols sapossao0y 6u1glol0 pue bu!g1010 suollels aullose0 saiolS 9Je0 leuosiad Pue glleaH swolS 96wanag pue pond saliddnS pue'dlnb3 uepie0 pue'iReW '6pig saJOIS a0uellddy pue sbuiyslwn j awoH SJOIea0 sued pue a101yaA lo1oW $ OLOZ ul el!de0 dad sales 112401 SWIM lielam saoeld 6UlWAG Pue saOpuaS Pood slapelaa alo1S snoauellaoslW saaols aslpuegwaW leAaua0 semis oisnW pue 'Moog 'RggOH 'spoof) 6uluodS saaois sapossaooy bulglolo pue 6ulglol0 suoliels aupose0 saiolS aJeO leuoslad Pue gpeaH saUolS a6eJan99 Pue pooj sagddnS pue 'dlnb3 usNeO Pus APIeW 'Op19 saJOIS aoueilddy pue s6ulgslwnj awoH sJalead sued pue 0101yaq ioloW (e) 000$ O1.0Z u! sales SaleS pelaa 900Z P91eanlS3 M01 :14 SMI Retail Sales by Major Retail Category in Los Gatos, Santa Clara County, and California The following section presents historic data on retail sales by major store /outlet category, to supplement the single -year estimate provided in the previous section. The following discussion relies on taxable sales data published by SBOE. Unfortunately, SHOE taxable sales data are not available for the Retail Trade Area as a whole; the discussion here focuses on Los Gatos, with comparative data from Santa Clara County and the California provided. All data are presented in constant 2010 dollars, based on the Bay Area and California Consumer Price Indexes. It is important to note that the discussion here specifically covers taxable sales, not total sales. For instance, food purchases, prescription drugs, and services (e.g., auto repair) are not taxable. Nevertheless the taxable sales data are the best indicator available of retail sales trends by major store category over a period of years, even though they do not provide complete coverage of the retail sector, and thus the estimates are lower than provided by the Zip Code data discussed above. The leakage analysis following the market overview is based on the static estimate derived from Zip Code and County Business Patterns and the Economic Census in order to cover the total retail sector. Because of the reclassification of businesses by SHOE beginning with 2009, it is not possible to consistently track retail sales by major store category into 2009 with the published data. Even a time series for overall retail sales is not available, as some businesses were moved out of retail and into the "all other outlets" category. This is particularly a problem in Los Gatos, where Netflix, a major sales tax generator, was moved out of the retail group —thus the trend line for total retail sales shows a significant drop from 2008 to 2009, but this is not due to an actual decline in sales. As a result, retail sales by major category are discussed for the 2000 to 2008 period, and then separately for 2009. For Los Gatos, BAE obtained more recent data for the 2008 through 2010 period, using the older classification system. However, these data are not directly comparable to the 2000 through 2008 data due to differing data reporting methodologies, and the same source data was not available for Santa Clara County or California. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 49 of 150 0S 3o 0S aged XtiolezlS luouldolOnOQ ssauisng Piro ,Cpn1S la�.zuW ueld agtoodS X1sod guoN 'X1 WON sapnlaxa [elw still legl DION oz "uotlttut OOb$ uegl azoui iCju lqs le paleuulsa atom sates pelaz alquxpl [elol `0[OZ uI 'OIOZ ut /�Ilq$gs popunogal pup pozgtquls 1nq `600Z olnt aupoap .natp panuiluoa sales ItelOZ algexel `g am3i3 ui umogs sd -,Cluo SCUD aql zo} pouielgo olep Oql ut umogs ate poizad O[OZ gSnotgl g00Z agl io3 sales Ienuae `lanamog -slapno [te jo uotlpogtssgaaa s,gpgS of onp `savaX nilmo of olquladmoo 1ou We 60OZ ulog plop sales pallsggnd-AOUS 0 xlpuaddy w paiou se sawnos uo paseq 'I LM 3V8 :aomos '0 xlpuaddy aas'sl!elap lo3 'siellop OLOZ ul uMogs sales IIV 'glmoib lenuue luelsuoo to uolldwnsse glw'snsueo OLOZ pue OOOZ wwl panuap step uogelndod :saloN 7 uoilelndod. -a saaolS pejay jaglo 5wpnpx3 saes llela8 lelol i 80OZ LOOZ 90OZ SOOZ t7OOZ £OOZ ZOOZ TON OOOZ 05 c ! 009'OOi5 OOOOOZ$ m t �OGn cl __� _� _— .___.____ _�_��.�,. 000 00i$ c � i - +.r e of c 000'09 0000095 I r,3 9t i — -- 90OZ-000Z `spuaay uotlelndod pue smog 6e ;ay elgexe.L soleE) sot :1 aan6ij •umo 1, agl ut glmo i� uoilpindod palimil C ;)AJO punojoeq u isuie2e pounaoo sales lielai ut sa8nego asagd, '8002 g5nonp zeo,S kDA0 ut augoap e qum `SOOZ in i3uple3d sales Itelaz alquxel ;o zaputeulaz alp smogs still `.,Cxo3aleagns 11 ulat zaglo axilua agl pue xtplaN 2impnloxa solos Irelaa lino; smogs osle L a.tnSid •poutooq sales atogl se pdemdn sales �utmajs `(,C.LoOom ,,saaols [iela.t.Laglo„ aql ui) lopno 11,310.1 e se Pagisse10 sum xg31aN `60OZ o1 zoud `zanamog •szetIoP 010Z ut uogltuL 069$ of ute213 Pougoap Pug sales ltelaa 113101 `80OZ /Cg '(L axn3id oas) 90OZ ut /�Ilenuuu 09L$ x1mou IL dead of paseazam ,�llenpmii uagl pue `lsnq uloo -lop agl 3uimopo3 opnop aql jo hied ,Clrea agl ut paddip soleO sort ut sales tielai atgexel palsn(pe- uoiloIIui lem `8002 PUe OOOZ uaamlag SOME) sod The key factor in the long -term decline of retail sales (excluding Netflix) in Los Gatos is the decline in the motor vehicle sector. By 2010, taxable motor vehicle sales in the Town were only 21 percent of 2000 levels after adjusting for inflation (see Appendices C -1 and C -2). Thus this decline is notjust a result of the economic downturn of the last few years. No other sector shows this level of decline; in fact, most of the major retail sectors have 2010 inflation adjusted sales similar to those in 2000. Only the other retail group shows a substantial decline, to 60 percent of 2000 levels. Figure 8: Los Gatos Taxable Retail Sales and Population Trends, 2008.2010 Total Retail Sales -,* Population Notes: Population data derived from 2000 and 2010 Census, with assumption of constant annual growth. All sales shown in 2010 dollars. For details, see Appendix C. Source: BAE 2011, based on sources as noted in Appendix C. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 51 of 150 $300,000 0 $400,000 c °o $350,000 - ---- -- -'0 >300,000 $200,000 v $50,000 I -�----- ------ ._. ---- -- ------------- i i -- ---'-- `:,:'.i;, cp- 1—._._.......__..__._. r_.,.... _.�._....�— �_____._...._.._..j_ 2008 2009 2010 ''.. Total Retail Sales -,* Population Notes: Population data derived from 2000 and 2010 Census, with assumption of constant annual growth. All sales shown in 2010 dollars. For details, see Appendix C. Source: BAE 2011, based on sources as noted in Appendix C. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 51 of 150 OSI 3o ZS 05ed ,CBalezlS luacudolanaQ ssaulsng pue XpnlS ImijeW weld o31oadS /Wod TIIjoN '(SOleD so'1 n! xiUloN ` S a) dnoAS ley wwl popnlaxa Sulaq mou I!elau se pag!sselp ,ipauuo3 sossou!snq of anp s! 60OZ pus SOOZ uaamlaq oSuego agigo awos 1eg1 olq!ssod s! It `60OZ m sassau!snq ;o uoyeogfssepaa agl jo asneaafl It Dec ,ns > OCWc ,, > ous Sp00:oir .a x!pueddtl u! palou se saomos uo paseq 'L LOZ 3tl8 :amnog .o x!puaddtl aas'sl!elap iod siellop OLOZ ui umogs sales Ily 'glmm6 anum luelsuoo to uolldwnsse gl!m'snsuap OLOZ pue OOOZ wm; panpap slap uogelndod saloN uogelndOd=. *.. saleS 1!21all lelol SON Z.00Z 90OZ SOOZ bOOZ £OOZ ZOOZ TOOZ OOOZ -- -- — — -- -- 1 I 05 Doti 000's> � y� oor ooa'o[S 000'o00'sT5 I 0100 ,000 US, o j o, 000'0w'sng NO 0011"Ot 90OZ-000Z `spuail uoilelndod pue sales pel,aa olgexel R;unoo eaejo elueg :6 ain6! j a •uogliq L f$ zapun of 'OgVn3 Ila3 slgl `60OZ L1I '(6 ajnOid aas) XjunoD atp ui uolglq OZ$ moloq azam sales Inalaz olgexel SOOZ ul :sales 1peoi olgexel Ienuue ul uolll ?q SZ$ �I7eau JO slanal OOOZ aqI analgae MOO danau sales `slseq palsnfpe- aopeUut ue up - apeaap alp ai alel ouilaap lagloue pue `aswmaui apeoap -p!m e dq pamolloj `apeoap aql ul ,(I.m;) ougaap sales Ilelaz o14exei jo usal,led e smogs osle 6tiunoo aqy Apnoo eae/o e;ueg California As shown in Figure 10, taxable retail sales levels for California were relatively flat from 2000 through 2002, reflecting the dot -com bust and post 9/11 decline, effects of which were not as greatly felt statewide as in Santa Clara County. Statewide sales then increased through 2005, with declines since that year. Inflation - adjusted estimated sales of $361 billion for 2008 are below 2000 levels (also inflation - adjusted), even though the population of the state increased by eight percent in the same period. In 2009, total inflation - adjusted taxable retail sales for the state were reported at $315 billion, indicating a further decline. 22 Figure 10: California Taxable Retail Sales and Population Trends, 2000 -2008 5 00XO,000 , ._ r40a,00a, of — — , io -rte-_ .,� A � S300,00Q000 i � -- v SZS0'0L,o' ff) 0 � I I 5_CJ,OoG,GoO $50.000,00 ^, , —._ . __��..� . � —_ .._.______ � € E.Z. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 i I ! Total Retail Sales ,, Population Notes: Population data derived from 2000 and 2010 Census, with assumption of constant annual growth. All sales shown in 2010 dollars. For details, see Appendix C. Source: BAE 2011, based on sources as noted in Appendix C. As with the County, the reclassification of businesses in 2009 makes it possible that some of the change between 2008 and 2009 is due to businesses formerly classified as retail now being excluded from that group. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 53 of 150 OS I3o bS o2m X2alezlS luawdolana(l ssoulsng pue 6pnlS IwlleW weld ogloodS Xlzo3 qlzoN pe woa3 papnJoxa uaaq aneq saes x!glaN legs aloN 'sagols 8nxp pue `sajols pooj `(soowas olgexel -uou ap!noid uago go!gm) sialeap olne aae loloe; lueog!u8!s s, scgl axagm sadKl cools aaxgl aqy a 309S pue semoS iunyq wal uolwuuolui uo Peseq'gVg :seoanoS I l OTOZ 6002 SOOZ 1 -- — 0$ 000'000`05$ i saa7ua0poogaogg8ia�..uZr paenalnoo soles sol - – - 000 "000'OOZS UMOIUMOQ 000'000'OSZ$ I 000'000'ooF$ i -- - 000,000 "0017$ { 000 "000`OSb$ 000'000'005$ OTOZ-800Z j 'spuaaj, sales p jaa algexej jala3sl0 pue soleg sol :TT aingl j � E sales ploi olgexel Ilelano s�uMOd 3gl3o aaegs aalleuls xej e 2npnquluoo ssaluoo poogzogcIi?lau aq1 pue zamol Cpg3gs p.leealnog soled so-1 gllm 'sales olgexel jo suual ul seazegns ao up oyjo lsaS.zel arp sl umolumoQ 'UA%01 aqj pue .laglO gaea of anpelai eategns goeo ,(q uouejowo xel sales ;o s[anal aql jo uopeolpul ue se [lam se °eaaegns , q sales llelaa olgexel )uaaaz 3o Maln.lano ue sapleozd l I azn213 -aaluaD Rulumo(l pus'azenbS suaaiOleM `uopelS euosen'raluaD epeuoauil1 Suipnlaui'szaluoa Suwas poogaoggSlau agl pue fpzena[nog sole J so-l'XJIsiae¢iTIIIH ulossolg pue 'glzoN umolumoCl 'azoD umolumoCl agl Sulpnloul 'umolumoCI :seaxegns olesedas aazgl �q lno ualloaq'umol aql ,Cq papinozd uogeuuojuc uo paseq sl slsxleue 8ulmo(lo3 aqy 13ij ;sip Aq seleg p;aa algexel so}eE) sod Downtown In 2010, Downtown Los Gatos generated approximately $209 million in taxable retail sales, or over 50 percent of the Town's total, indicating its significance as a shopping destination and as a tax generator for the Town (see Table 15). On an inflation - adjusted basis, this sales level has declined from $225 million in 2008, but has rebounded from $198 million in 2009. This uptick is due in part to increasing sales at the Apple Store, which is one of the top 25 largest sales tax generators in the Town. While disclosure rules for SBOE data limit the detail that can be provided, the Table also shows some sales by category. Of the disclosed categories, Eating and Drinking Places show annual taxable sales in the range of approximately $64 million to $67 million, and Apparel Stores have sales at approximately $25 to $27 million annually. Both of these categories had year- over -year sales declines between 2008 and 2009, but increases between 2009 and 2010. Apparel sales in 2010 were above 2008 levels on an inflation- adjusted basis. Most of the remaining taxable sales are lumped together in the Other Retail Stores category, which because of the disclosure issues also includes automotive, home furnishings /appliances, service stations, and general merchandise stores.2' This large grouping of stores shows declining taxable sales in 2009, with limited recovery in 2010 to $106 million. Within the overall Downtown area, the Core is responsible for 80 percent of total taxable sales (also shown in Table 15). Downtown North makes up 16 percent of the Downtown total, with the remainder coming from the Blossom Hill /University area. These percentages vary little over the three -year period. Under this classification system there are two general merchandise stores, the two pharmacies. In some other tables in the analysis here for recent data, they have been placed in the health and personal care stores category per NAICS. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 55 of 150 0g l io 9S 'fed X2o)uu7S luouldolanaQ ssoulsng pue,(pniS 1;)Ijv q weld agpadS Xvo,3 glsoN 'Solna wnsolnsip 3085 of onp olqupuAuun si iW3oleo 6q llelap leuogmppv sz - uollellul ul `umogs sy 'sole0 so-1 umolumoQ uo3 aojcladuioa panloouad .lo[ew e `mog euelueS 3o £OOZ ul �3ucuado aql pue euolssaaau uo(ew omi szanoa pouad sig,[ Sz 9 [ a[gey ul paluasasd aue 0 [ OZ q$nonp OOOZ wo g auo0 umolumoQ aql uc sales algexel llexano ui spaaul uual -Suo7 -auo0 umo)umoQ aql ul sates [cezaz algexel aql ;o31eq uano uo3 lunoaae suapelau elnuuql `(aoueutpuo pelau elnLuJcj ay of loofgns ase golgm3o lagllau) saaols poo3 pue slueanelso.i Ouipn[axg aaolslooq ,Cluo aq) sem `gaols elnwuo3 e `s.aaplog posolo Xlluaaac aqy uatlelaz etnuuo} e `eaeuuegd st umolumop auols $nup ,fluo ally 'sauols pelau elnuuo3 ui aue saouetldde pue sRucgs[L un3 awoq ui sales olgexel3o uoluodoud uagSLq ganui e Pee `sauols 11m.1 e[nuuo3 ul me sauols lauedde ul sales olgexel s,310D umolumoQ ag13O3leq la ^O -auo0 umolumoQ oql ui suapelau elnuuoj 3o uolleool acp fulmogs dew e sepinoud I xipuoddy (suollils aainlas pue pelau polelaz -poo3 3ulpnloxo) slapno lcelau agl3o luaouad [ l ,Sluo do 8uptew apgm `eaue acl3 ui sales [relay algexel I[e 3o luoond O£ JOAO papinoud auoD umolumoQ aql ul pelau elnuuoj se paleuSlsap sauols `0[OZ ul 'sales lrelau algexu1 jo uoi odoud lueagru3is e uo3 slunoom ssolagluaeau `aio0 umolumoQ aql ui palaulsaa apgm `trelau etnuuog L LOZ `3H8 soles sod ;o umoy fsaarn�ag !unW 'sogsgalg aoge� ;o newn8's n'3oes :saomog swo1S pelaa aa430 411m peu!gwoo uaaq ane4 sales passaaddnS viols auo Rq paleuwop 6m6aleo a uj sales ao slallno aama; ao mo; we wa41 u94m elep ssaaddns legl salm Apleguappoo 308S of anp luo6weo 941 ao; Ll!I!ge!!eneun elep saleo!pu! u6!s „ #„ y (a) sales a!gexel bu!liodw (saoimas leuosaad pue ssau!snq) slapno l!elw -uou Ile sepn!oxa s!sRleuy (q) pasn aomos a41 of anp'walsAs u0peolipselo 30gs aa!pea pue LOOZ 941 uo paseq we way peen sauo6we0 sops!lelS aoge-1 ;o newne .s.n'xapul gaud aawnsuo0 ewy Aeg a41 uo paseq saellop 0 0 of palsn(pe ueaq 9ne4 sales i!elaa (e) 05Z`6$ OLL'L$ 080`OL$ Fl!sJan!un/!!!H wosso!g 809'Z£$ LLL'6Z$ 8bb'bE$ 41aON um01um00 £L6'99L$ 89L'09L$ 989'083 woo umolumo0 LL9'90Z$ 099'L61,$ 9LL`9Z3 LLE'901,$ bbZ'OOL$ ££9'OZL$ b L9`99$ 6L9'£9$ ZE9`L9$ bL9'93 908113 £Lb'9Z$ L9b'b$ £Z£`b$ OLL'b$ b99'9$ 66£'b$ 9Z9'9$ # # # # # # O LOZ I BOOZ 8002 ie;o.L saio ;S 1!e1oU (a) swols 1!elaa aa410 saoeld 5u1juu0 pue 6upe3 swols as!pueLIwayy lwaua0 swolS weddy suo!lels eal"as swolS pool sluaweldwl waed pue ,p1eW 6p!g seoue!lddy pue s6u!4s!uand 8w0H sagddnS olny g saalea0 olny (a) (q) (e) 000$ OLOZ ul sales OLOZ-800Z `spuaul sales peaau elgexel umo;umod :91, algel adjusted dollars, sales were substantially higher in 2000 than in 2010. Sales declined from 2000 through 2003, but rebounded in 2004 even with Santana Row opening in 2003. Sales increased again in 2005, declined in 2006, increased to a post -2010 peak in 2007, and then declined as the recession took hold, reaching the low point of the decade in 2009. A modest increase was seen in 2010. It appears that general macroeconomic regional trends were a greater factor influencing sales levels in the Core than the additional competition provided by Santana Row. Much of this decline, however, was not in the major retail categories for the Core, but instead in auto - related retail (dealers and service stations) and non- retail outlets (personal and business services). The key retail sectors combined showed smaller declines over the decade, and eating and drinking places showed much less variation over the ten years. Table 16: Downtown Core Taxable Retail Sales Trends Sales in 2010 $000 (a) Retail Stores Total 2000 1 2001 1 2002 1 2003 1 2004 1 2005 1 2006 1 2007 1 2008 1 2009 1 1010 $226,509 1 $191,596 1 $169,509 1 $164,749 1 $179,016 1 $202,584 1 $191,590 1 $207,465 1 $180,586 1 $160,168 1 $166,913 All Other Outlets $23,038 $20,582 $12579 $10,526 $10,364 $9,398 $11,766 $12,011 $10,001 $9,385 $8,220 Total All Outlets $249,547 $212,179 $182,088 $175,275 $189,380 $211,982 $203,356 $219,475 $190,587 $169,554 $175,134 Key Relail Sectors (b) $119,352 $106,677 $91,409 $83,804 $91,138 $92,523 $89,597 $95,287 $95,231 $84,540 $97,807 Eating& Drinking Places $62,407 $57763 $55,596 $57,526 $57,712 $62,057 $61,172 $66,876 $62,053 $58,503 $59,108 Other Outlets, Combined (c) $33,105 $28,353 $19,413 $17,746 $17,941 $17,480 $18,884 $16,275 $13,935 $12,611 $11,977 (a) Retail sales have been adjusted to 2010 dollars based on the Bay Area Consumer Price Index, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, (b) Includes all retail sectors except auto dealers & supplies, service stations, and eating and drinking places. (c) Includes auto dealers & supplies, services stations, and noo-retail (all other cutlets). Sources: 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census; State Board of Equalization; CA Dept. of Industrial Relations; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; BAE, 2011. In summary, Downtown's taxable retail sales declined as the recession took hold in 2009, but have recovered somewhat in 2010, albeit not to the levels of 2008. The Core constitutes the large majority of sales in the overall Downtown area. While formula retail outlets snake up only a small proportion of all stores in the Downtown Core, they generate nearly one -third of the Core's taxable retail sales, and are dominant sales in apparel stores, home furnishings and appliance stores, and general merchandise /drug stores. Excluding restaurants and food stores (which are not subject to the formula retail ordinance), formula retailers account for over half of the taxable sales in the Downtown Core. Los Gatos Boulevard As shown in Table 17, the Los Gatos Boulevard commercial district had taxable retail sales of approximately $152 million in 2010. This is a steep decline from $191 million in 2008 (inflation adjusted), and results largely from declines in the automotive sector, due to the closure of two North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 57 of 150 05130 89 02ed BolealS luauidolaeaQ ssauisng pue Xpn1S 1a3laelnl ueld ogpodS Xlaog tllaoK "LLOZ'3Hg !sole0 sol ;o umol !saoimeS lunlry sogs!lelS jogel ;o newng "S,n :Boas :saanoS swolS Oelaa jag1O LI m peu!gwoo uaaq aneq sales passaiddnS *ajols auo Rq paleulwop Fao6aleo e w sales jo slallno lama; jo ino; aie aJagl uagm elep ssewddns legl salty Rl!lelluappoo 3095 of anp tio6olm aql jol llilpelleneun elep salempu! u6!s „ #„ y (o) sales algexel 6ulliodw (saoimas leumad pue ssoulsnq) slallno llelw -uou Ile sapnioxe s!sAleuy (q) "pasn aanos aql o; anp'walsRs uo!leol;lsselo 309S jaipee pue LOOZ aql uo paseq aje way pasn sapo6aleo so0spels joge-j ;o neamg .s "n 'xapui aopd jawnsuo0 eajy /eg ayl uo paseq siellop 0 O of palsn(pe uaaq aneq sales I!elaH (e) 8L0'ZSL$ SSZ'YSl$ 9£9`061,$ 81,0`69$ Z96'69$ Z01,'£L$ 86t "Kt 9LZ'91,$ 8Z9'9L$ Z6L'2$ 9£9'1,Z$ LSS'LZ$ LLL'99$ LSb "L9$ 6bb'08$ OLOZ 60OZ I 8002 lelol saaO1S Ilelem (o) saJolS I!elaa Jag40 saoeid 6uNuup pue 60103 saJolS aslpuegwapy Iwaua0 salo1S lajeddy suollels aolnias saJolS pool sluaweldwi wed pue "PIeW 6plg saouellddy pue s6ulgslwnd awOH sa!IddnS olnY'8 sialeaO olny (o) (q) (a) 000$ 01,0Z ul sales OLOZ-800Z `spuaal sales pe ;eN algexel paenalno8 so;eE) sol :LL e1gel '010Z ui uogliul 69$ 01 800Z ui u01111u1 EL$ uloa3 `sales algexel m augaap e uaas osle aneq pomquioo slopno Hejaz aatp0 'OIOZ ui ,iIIentnle uogliuL {,1$ Xlaleunxoadde of `pound OIOZ o1 80OZ oq1 aano au1133p 1112gs XIOA e uaas aeeq saaeld Oui luup pue i3upeg paenalnog soleE) so-I uo sales lielaa 3o aaegs .la3zel gonui e aleaaua8 saaols poo3 aql `paaapisuoo age sales algexel -uou 3i :algexel age sales gaols poo33o p.ng1 -auo lnoge Clao „`quinqj jo alna„ e se 101@ palou oq pinogs 11 'slallno 1311eucs paaalleas le sales poliu111111im `slaNaeuuodns ano3 agl 1e an000 sales osogl3o 1sow saea se qons sasegaand sa3ael o$ao3 Xogl se uana sauaaoJi osetlaand of onuiluoo saaulnsuoo se `,fllenuue uoilliul ZZ$ molaq XpgOils ie lue;suoa flanilelaa uaaq aneq sales gaols poo3 •saaeld Oupluiap pue Oupluo pue saaols poo; on Xialeaedas paluosaad szoloas zaglo Xluo oql `salna elep gpgS of an(I '0102 ui UO(Mul LS$ 01 800Z ui 110114U108$ azoa3 p311i1aap paenainog soILD sort uo 10103S aniloulolne aql ui sales algexe,I, 'sdigsaaleap zoNtu Neighborhood Centers The neighborhood centers (Downing Center, Rinconada Center, Vasona Station, and Walgreens Square) provide a much smaller share of the Town's sales tax than Downtown or Los Gatos Boulevard. These centers combined accounted for approximately $34 million in taxable retail sales in 2010 (see Table 18). With the exception of Vasona Station, these centers are dominated by supermarkets or chain pharmacies and thus disclosure rules prohibit showing information on individual centers or by type of retail. Table 18: Neighborhood Centers Taxable Retail Sales Trends, 2008.2010 Sales in 2010 $000 (a) (b) (c) Retail Stores Total zoos 1 2009 1 2010 $38,604 1 $36,769 1 $33,741 (a) Retail sales have been adjusted to 2010 dollars based on the Bay Area Consumer Price Index, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Categories used here are based on the 2007 and earlier SBOE classification system, due to the source used. (b) Analysis excludes all non - retail outlets (business and personal services) reporting taxable sales. (c) A V" sign indicates data unavailability for the category due to SBOE confidentiality rules that suppress data when there are four or fewer outlets or sales in a category dominated by one store. Suppressed sales have been combined with Other Retail Stores. Sources: SBOE; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Muni Services; Town of Los Gatos; BAE, 2011. Leakage and Injection Analysis for Los Gatos and the Retail Trade Area (RTA) Overview of Methodology Retail leakage and injection analysis compares actual retail sales in an area with some benchmark that provides a measure of the potential sales generated by that area's residents. If sales levels are below the predicted level, the area may be able to support increased sales, either through the opening of new outlets targeting those leakages or a repositioning of existing outlets through changes in strategy and marketing, merchandise mix, or store configuration such that they could capture a portion of that leakage. A lower- than - predicted sales volume is a strong indicator that consumers are traveling outside the area to shop; thus, the sales are "leaking" out of the study area Conversely, if the area shows more sales than would be expected from the area's characteristics, there are sales "injections" into the study area. Often, an injection of sales indicates that the study area is serving as the regional shopping destination for a broader area. On the other hand, if an area shows substantial leakage, it may be due to the presence of a region- serving retail node outside but near the study area capturing those "leaked" sales. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 59 of 150 05 T 30 09 aged X2olmIS )uautdo[anaa ssauesng pue Xpn1S ya)puW veld ogloodS XwA tpaoN 'Ob glaom ate to uado �(penloe s7agno lielai ,Sue Peep oql 2q anoidmi 1pm suopipum oituouma ley alq!ssod si it 'suogtpuoo /Umowssaoa, luanno 13aL10J of piemumop sales patoadxa slsnfpe 1! legl of anpeeaasuoa St Wall aanpaaold aqj, 'sales olgexel isnf iou `sales plot lelol lunmou olut wale) osle pasn aamos elep oql -pagsggnd iou on eiep (Ioigm ioj wipe palesodtoamun sapnloul pue sauepunoq leumliTpsu f sassom 1! se VJ.iI aql ao; pameigo oq iou pinoo elep sales olgexey m •s[seq el[deo Pad pue le)ol e uo `6l algey ul anoge umogs se yy21 aql pue SOME) soZ a03 fJOo lO)ea aaols aofetu,Cq sales paletu[lso aql of paaedutoo uagl on e)ep aanl[puadxo /pueutap paugoa oqy •eaae oql ao3 algepene are 010Z zo3 elep 3nileaPCIU100 ou aou[s `lnotl�lnoagl pasn s[ ao)snfpe leuopeu aql `vL-d ag) and -souoiia)ea aaglo se s[seq aileluaaaad e uo ganut se pau[[aap 1ou aneq sales aloTs poo3 `C1[ssaaau X[lep eaae sulall poo3 aau[s `oauelsul zo3 `.add aaols plela.t Xq /Saen szat[du[nui 3saL3, sales lrnlaa poleunlso uo elep leuolleu utoa3 panuap sales el[deo .lad palsnfpe- uotlel{uc ui sAuego no paseq aolae3 luaul)snfpe pueutap [euoueu e uo pue `elep sales algexel3o s[sXleue aq) u[ poleo[pu[ se 010Z pur 80OZ uoamlaq fuo '2alea aaols aofeua 6q sales [en)oe ui aSnego aql utoa3 pan[aap aae sao)oe3 luaullsnfpe asogl soled so7 and v paulelgo aaam elep lenloe ga[m l[ualod pue sales leave ul so2uega lunoaae olui o-pi of iaoRa)eo gaols dg aoloe3 luaul)snfpe ue 3o osn ag) s[ sisXleue o2e>(e31 agl in dais )xou otp `alemilso aan)[puadxo djNd agl3o uollelnoleo oql iiumollod -,Cao2opo aaols aofeut Xq sales T[elaa lelol ui poloagaa se ,uunoo exelo Blues u[ suialled aanl[puadxa lenlse uo paseq soleumso aanupuadxo dye atp pounl -Pug gyg 1x3N -6ao2o)eo gaols [iela.i Xq pueatap3o awtuipso ue u[elgo of ` X) aau)s Xq saanl!puodxo poloodxa 01 pauanuoa s[ ualeuuo3ut aoanos segy -solgeuen saglo pue `Si[a[ugla `auioou[ `ale Xq stualled Su[puads Suiz0331p uo elep sap[noad pue saan)[puodxa aauinsuoa saanseaut go[gm neaing snsuao .S.(10111 tq sa[lsgelS .ioq -1 jo neaang ioge73o luatulaedaQ otp ao3 palanpttoa Xanans leuo[leu e `,Can.mS aml[puodxg saumsuoo Pill uo paseq pueutop [le)aa saleu psa laodaa segy s31gdea$oo2 oml aql zo3 podia (dpi d) deco X1[tln)aoddo lellualod 1XI -IRN [[elag selue[o/umlaiN e paulelgo seq gdg `v LN aql pue soleD so-1 zo3 suopoafu[ pue safe) lea[ 3o s[ana[ aql outtuaalap aal)aq oy 'XT[eaol alge[cene suoudo l[e)aa agl se llom se saouaaa3aad aaumsuoo of anp ,Caen ,Soul smallLd Suuddogs pue `suaaued �luipuads pool 2uua331P zo3 lied ut lunoaae pinoa slanal auioauc aag8[q `aouelsu[ -10j .soleool aaglo uioa3 sales ouunldeo .C[caessaaau age seaae asatp leg) azea[pul iou saop `aanamoq `auole s[gy 'slanal 0p[m0)e1s pue !)unoo anoge sales el[deo aid lleaano aneq V L d aq1 pue soled so-[ `anoge palou sy -saolae3 [eanllno pue `(aaluaa •sn aaumo) smolled Pima; `saanllpuadxa uisuno) `(uotlelndod amilXvp `a•[) eaae aqi u[ saaXaom 3o zaqumu `uopu1ndod3o aSe `od/ij plogasnoq apnlout eaae ue tit Suipuads [[elan 3u[ouongut saoloe3 [euou[ppy uo[le[ndod letll 01 algel[ene autoom olgesods[p aql pue eaae oql u[ suosaad3o aagtunu oql i?u[aq saoloe3 luelaoduii Isom oral aql ql[m `slanal sales 131paad of pasn aq ueo letp saoloe3 3o aagtunu e age aaag3, The results of the leakage analysis are summarized in Figure 12 and Table 19, with detail on this analysis provided in Appendices D and E. Los Gatos Leakage Analysis With its high per capita sales levels, Los Gatos shows injections of sales in most major store categories, as shown in Figure 12. Injections are particularly high for food and beverage stores, motor vehicle and parts dealers, food services, and health and personal care stores. Two categories, building materials and general merchandise stores, stand out for their substantial leakages; over half of potential resident expenditures in the building materials category are leaking out of Los Gatos, and nearly all resident expenditures for general merchandise stores appear to be leaking out of Los Gatos. The lack of sales in general merchandise stores is directly related to the lack of such stores in Los Gatos; 2' in fact, the California State Board of Equalization (SBOE) does not currently report any outlets in this category in the Town. For the building materials group, there are several outlets including two hardware stores, but the Town does not have a large home improvement store such as Home Depot or an independent lumber yard. Overall, the analysis indicates that by major store category, Los Gatos has estimated combined injections of nearly $320 million in retail sales annually, and combined estimated leakages of approximately $80 million annually. The high level of injections of sales for food and beverage stores is particularly noteworthy, since groceries are a convenience item that is usually purchased locally. To some extent, this is due to the location of the stores in Los Gatos. The Safeway stores in the Downing and Rinconada Centers are near the Town boundary, and their specific local trade areas include areas outside the Town. Furthermore, the two neighboring cities of Saratoga and especially Monte Serene and the unincorporated areas to the south of Town have limited retail offerings, with Los Gatos offering the closest shopping for some of their residents. This may be a factor for other store types also, particularly health and personal care stores. Additionally, Los Gatos Boulevard has four supermarkets on a major arterial street which continues into neighboring Campbell and San Jose; two of these stores, Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, are niche stores which likely draw from a larger area than a generic neighborhood- serving store would, and Lunardi's is a smaller local chain which also attracts shoppers from a larger trade area. Another issue to consider in evaluating leakages and injections is the potential for substitution by store type. For example, apparel can be purchased in both clothing stores and general merchandise stores. In Los Gatos, the lack of general merchandise stores may be responsible for some injections, particularly for drug stores, which are in the health and personal care store '_8 The health and personal care stores category includes pharmacies as the largest subcategory. 21 The closest major general merchandise store to Los Gatos is the Target on Hillside Avenue in San Jose. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 61 of 150 OSI3o Z9 02ed 63alej;S luawdolana(l ssauisng pue ,SpnlS pNjPW weld agtaadS Sjo,q quoN V,Lfl ag13o lied Jou si goigm ssojppu apoD diz PtP ;J u1uPS P SPg puP ouil (,uo 3sof LmS/ujP.ID P1uPS oy salppPuls PPJ (QIIPA swo ;s os.pumpow (PJauad sP sato7s Snip pagissPlo WUS `600Z IPun do `toe.{ u; of •sajo ;s jogoue sit o; Vyg atp ;o lno sales simmiju Xlureljaa it gf�nogtle VId aq; apislno lsnf aouasajd SA.UA �0119A plaglsaM of lied at powlaj aq,Cew Xjo2aluo astpuetlojout [PjauaS ag1 ui soSBjual atU •,Wto ojeo aiols asipueg3jow lLnuai? oql ui s3�lB jval lsa0jel ay qhm `sauo$alea ;o joquwu e ssojoe peajds am lnq `X[lenuuu uogllat 06S$ Xljeau lP `joleoA on saiNjual paucqutoa aqy pulaj pa ;elaj -olnu ui palejluaauoo am puP `,Cllenuue uog[jw 0£Z$ C[oiewixoiddu le `jomol we suopoafuc pautgwoa poleutpsa `umo 1, aq; uetp snolndod ajoui gonw st V.RI a11l g0nogl uang satjo$alPa lsotu ui sojn;cpuadxa luaplsoi pue sales liP ;ai uaamlaq oauelPq aAilelaj e Sutleacpul `SISeq el[deo jad e uo jamol qonw aq o; jead& suoiloafw pue SAexe3l3o slang[ atp `VSg jaijP[ 3111 jo3 slsAjeuy oBe>1e97 eaay aped IIe;od VI-d oql jo3 sisXleue a3e teal ay rage pnno3 ad61 ajo ;s pagelap ajow Xq sales e ;idea gad3o uorssnaslp oql ui paioldxo aq Il!m anssi scq,L •6jogaleo agl3o japuiLwaj aql ssone sales pal [wg Swplseui aq ,iuut sales $uojls ,ilautajlxo s,wols slgy -atols olddd aql ui sales Xq pa;ewwop sl ,QoBoleo saouegddu puP s8utgstLun3 awoq otp soleg so7 ut `a[dwexa joq -6.toBaleo ajo ;s ;egl3o lsoi oql Xq 03ueuuojj0d jood Nseut uea sales $uojls Xlawoj;xa ql!m lopno auo letp se joloe; ,Sa)l leuoilippe auo •a.iols luaw ;jedop lunonsip e ;P osugojnd osle lg2!w auo pql suiou x)glo pup `spoof jaded `sojemasnoq jo uolloalas e kueo osle slaNjuuuodnS •sajols luawlaedop ;unoosip n5jq ui punoj CIleoidXi aju legs swap ,CepXJ3A330 ,i1auPA e laols sajols ?rup mega `jaltwoo uoildijasajd aql le luods oju sjellop ajols 2tup ;o Xiuofeui otp apgM o,-XjoSaleo Figure 12: Per Capita Retail Sales Leakages by Major Retail Store Category Los Gatos Per Capita Retail Sales Leakages Food and Beverage Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Food Services and Drinking Places Health and Personal Care Stores Gasoline Stations Miscellaneous Store Retailers Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies General Merchandise Stores Annual Per Capita Leakages /Injections FLeakages Injections 4 bat Trade Area Per Capita Retail Sales Leakages Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers SportingGoods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores Gasoline Stations Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Health and Personal Care Stores Food and Beverage Stores Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores Food Services and Drinking Places General Merchandise Stores Annual Per Capita leakages /Injections (--Leakages Injections -> bat Source: BAE Urban Economics, based on sources as noted in Table 19 and Appendices O and I. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 63 of 150 0S 3o b9 aged zUlalellS luawdofanaQ ssaufsng pue Xpn1S la�leW uefd of ;loads Sllog cplotq 'p xlpuaddy ul palou so sawnos uo poseq'lyg :sawnoS 'I pue p saolpueddy aas'sawnos pue L6olopoglaw uo Ilelap jo j slellop 0 [OZ ul Gig sa6emeal pue sales py %b° fL69$) (Z88'LSE$) LZ4`SS£`8$ "S`L66'1$ %Z[- (9bZ$) (bLZ'9VIS) 60'9LZ'[$ b8E`LZC1,$ %n- (Sb$) (bL£'LZ$) £[L'£ZZ$ 66£'96[$ %OZ- (9££$) (90b`£OZ$) LLE'Z00'3 ZL6'86L$ %SL £9$ 6G4'9E$ LL£'42$ 96L'ZSZ$ %n- (£SL$) (E66,Z6$) Z6S'8S9$ 669'999$ %9 Ob$ 896'£Z$ b[COLS$ Z80'b£S$ %6- (Z9$) (6Lb`L£$) 91,9'9£b$ L60`66£$ %£- (69$) (E96'LbS) got" L9£'[$ [4C'6LI "L$ %E- (8Z$) (8£0`1, L$) 9LZ'LLS$ 8£Z'09S$ %£- (££$) (69 L'OZ$) [£0'1,89$ Z91109S$ %[L 8L6$ 98989[$ 686'£[9'[$ SL9'Z89'L$ sales 000$ saml!puadx3 eery w lenualod (a6e�lea-1) (a6e4ea-L) luop!saa sales 10 %se fuog0aful /u0ld0aful palewps3 palewps3 000$ u! Sol !S litno f a6e�leaj ellde0 lad lelol ryopoaful lenuuy lei )I O30Z %84 6WO 96L`9EZ$ ZL9,E64$ L9V'ZEL$ %Z9 999'1,$ 090'9b$ 83L'£L$ 81,8'6[ L$ %L6 £44$ LEO'S[$ 68£'£1,$ OZb'9Z$ %86- (6b6'L$) (EZE'G9$) ZZ£'8S$ 666$ %Eb £61,$ 8L9'9$ [v C£L$ 6L8'SL$ %£Z £0£$ LL6'8$ 0££'6£$ LbZ'8V$ %99 6ES$ 898'9L$ EZ6'8Z$ Z8L'bb$ %ZLL ON, L$ OOL'6Y$ 1.00'9Z$ LOL'OL$ %££L 99b'E$ 009'ZOL$ 9E8'9L$ 9££'6GL$ %1,9- (1,£L$) (089'LZ$) £ZL'S£$ £40'b[$ %EE £Ob$ b99'L L$ 00 C9£$ 496'Lb$ %SG I ZS£'Z$ 1 1,61,'69$ 1 84CZ6$ I 6£13'[9[$ sales 000$ sainl!puadx3 eaAy u! 1e0u910d (06e4eaj) (a6ehea-l) luaplsaa sales ;o % se ryolloaful fu01400ful palewps3 palewps3 aB"ea-1 eAdeo gad lelol 000$ u! sales lonam /uolhaful lenuuy lelol 0[OZ 1¢101 saoeld 6u1>lup4 pue saowas pooj siallelaa alo1S snoauellaoslW sajo1S aslpuegwalnl lelaua0 saiolS olsnyy g 'Moog 'AggOH 'spoo0 6ulyodS saiolS sapossaooy 6ulg1010 pue 6ul41010 suopels aullose0 saJo1S we0 leuosiad pue glleaH saJo1S 86wana9 pue pooj sallddnS pue dlnbl uapje0 pue p1eW 6plg sajo1S aouellddy pue sOulgslwn j awoH sialeap sued pue alolgaA JOTON M-01JOIRO eery laHjeW 1¢101 saoeld bulHupO pue S001MOS pooj wapelaa aao1S snoauepaosllrq salolS aslpuegoiaW lejawo saaolS olsnW 8 'Moog 'AggOH 'spoo0 6uluodS saJo1S sauossaooy 6w41010 pue 6ulglol0 suopelS aullose0 saiolS we0 leuosJad pue L111e9H saUo1S 968Jan49 pue pooj sallddnS pue dlnb3 uaPJe0 pue WeW 6pig saiols aouellddy pue s6ulgslwn j awoH sJalea0 sued pue alalga/l blow KJOIJOJUD ajols so1e9 soj sfstfeuy a6e>lea-I ;o dlewwng :6L afgel Comparative Retail Sales by Detailed Store Category While the leakage analysis above provides a broad -brush picture of the retail market in Los Gatos and the RTA, a more detailed approach should give a better view of particular subcategories that may have weak or strong sales relative to the population base. The following analysis drills down to more detailed store types by NAICS code, by comparing annual per capita sales for Los Gatos and the RTA with Santa Clara County. This analysis is not a more detailed version of the leakage analysis itself, but a slightly different type of analysis. First, it does not take into account changes in sales since 2008, as it was not possible to provide adjustments at this greater level of detail. For example, the declines in motor vehicle sales due to dealer closures is not taken into account, nor are the increasing sales for the Apple Store, which were considerably higher in 2010 than 2008. This is noted in the discussion which follows with respect to car dealers and the Apple Store. Second, the analysis includes no adjustments for local demographics (e.g., high incomes and home ownership) as provided by the RMP report from Nielsen/Claritas. The ability of consumers to substitute between store types and the quality of the RMP data do not reasonably allow per capita sales adjustment factors for these more detailed store types. The tables in the following discussion highlight the subcategories where Los Gatos' per capita sales are more than 50 percent below those for Santa Clara County, as these may represent some of the better opportunities to expand retail in the Town, and because this extreme level of variation would still be present even if adjustments for local conditions in the Town and the RTA had been possible. Since the County has lower overall income levels and lower expected resident expenditures, this is a strong indicator of subcategories where there is a substantial gap between sales and expenditures in the Town.'' The following discussion is organized by major retail category as shown in the leakage analysis above. It should also be noted that the sales figures here in this detailed analysis are based on 2008 sales and are inflation- adjusted only, and have not been adjusted to account for changes in the economy and retail mix subsequent to 2008, such as the decline in new car sales in Los Gatos due to the closure of several car dealerships and the overall decline in the economy. The prior overall leakage analysis section makes adjustments for these factors. 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This major store category was one of the two that showed leakages for Los Gatos. This is largely due to the lack of a large home improvement store such as Lowe's or Home Depot. The Town's sales in this category are concentrated in the hardware store subcategory, which has per capita sales higher than the RTA or the County. This is likely an example where local shoppers are substituting purchases at local hardware stores and garden centers for purchases at home improvement centers. This propensity to purchase locally rather than drive out of town to a home improvement center is limited, though, as the overall building materials /garden equipment category still has estimated per capita sales below RTA and countywide levels. 2008 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2010 $ Los Gatos Retail Trade Area As % Per Capita As % Per Capita Santa Clara Sales of County Sales of County Count Home centers 108% $0 0% $407 $378 Paint and wallpaper stores $10 36% $51 179% $29 Hardware stores $397 356% $229 205% $112 Other building material dealers $103 29% $243 68% $360 Outdoor power equipment stores $0 0% $12 112% $11 Nursery, garden center, and farm supply stores $150 250% $80 133% $60 Bldg. Mati 1. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $660 $1,023 $949 Food and Beverage Stores. Los Gatos is unusual in the level of sales capture in this overall category, where per capita sales are estimated to be over twice the level of local resident expenditures. As discussed above, this is due in part to the location of many of the stores, particularly the two Safeways near opposite edges of the Town, as well as the attraction to these stores of residents of nearby unincorporated areas to the south of Town, since Los Gatos supermarkets are the closest such stores. Also discussed above, the cluster of supermarkets on Los Gatos Boulevard includes stores that have a more region - serving nature, and the lack of general merchandise stores in Town may lead to local shoppers purchasing a higher proportion of non - grocery items in these local supermarkets. Additionally, the downtown Safeway is the closest supermarket to Monte Sereno and some of Saratoga. Despite the Town's profile, with high home ownership and income levels, the Town has limited specialty food retail, showing no sales in meat markets, fish and seafood markets, and produce markets." Given the Town's already- strong attraction as a food shopping destination, this may represent an opportunity to broaden the food retailing mix and enhance the Town's strong position for this retail category. Los Gatos Meats and Smokehouse provides soma specialty meats, but is classified as a restaurant. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 67 of 150 0SI3o 89 aged .C2aleilS luoutdolaeaa ssouisnq pue Xpnls lwjielnl ueld ogloodS /Wo3 quoN -sieas io Aouuad DI se gans sajols luaculiedop Ileut pua -iomol ui io IreugeM io `ireul}I `la2iey se gans sajols os(puegoaaul leiaua2 lunooscp ul puno3 .Cluoul 000 aiout (aiedde Xep.iiana antsuodxaui jo sadSI ogl 2ugoagai XIiiessaoau lou `so.IOls pua -g2ni oq of pool umol acp ui sajols laiedde aql legl polou aq pings li `ianamOH 'sluaptsai sopq so-I mo.g sales Ieuogippe a.lnldea of solltunuoddo polccng glim `1112u311s (leiaeo ue slaagai sajols saraossaooe 2uigl013 pue 2uiglola .IO3 suOh3O.N! sales Ileaano aql sngZ •dnoi2 aiols 2uniloia oql ui sales 3o uoiltodoid lleuts XIice3 e sluasaidzo cio2aleogns stgl lnq `Xjo2aleagns souossoaoe 2uiglol3 aql ui sales poleugiso oo ace aiagl •sauo2aleagns agldo 3soul ui pue `,fio2alea Iielai io.Noa sigl ui sales 2uoiTs seq sole[) so-I •saaois sapossaaxv 2ulglol j pue 2ulgjola 699$ 999$ E9£`Z$ salols ales leuoslad pue 411BOH Ll$ %Z6 91,$ %LZE 99$ swols area leuowad pue g0eaq laylo IIV 81,$ %LA £Z$ %96 L1,$ sajols luawalddns(glleaq) pooj LZ$ %Zll 1,E$ %£9 Ll$ sajols spoo6leagdo ZL$ %Zll l8$ %899 9£9$ sajols awnpad pue'sailddns, neaq 'so0awsoo 0£9$ %96 609$ %ElE 899'1,$ swots 6wp pue salaewjegd Alunoa fqunoolo sales unop to sales weld glues 0$ %sy egdep lad %sy el!deo Jad $OIOZ ui sales el!dea lad lenuuy palewgs3900Z %0 easy apeni pelaa soleo Sol •e2oleieS JO autos pue ouaias aluolnl io3 (ouuuegd isasolo acp se suaai2ieM umo3umoQ aql 1I3AO cilim `umO•l, agldo sa2po acp ieau io le on salols Snip acp jo Xueul `.iiieuoilippy 'umos, aql of sajols gans jo joel aql of anp sajols osiperegoiaut leiaua2 se sajols Snip 2uisn sluopisoi Ieool of anp aq.fecu suot,33rui asagl3o autos slsx Lup a2e3leal oql u( polou sV soILD so-I ui suoiloa(nt (eiluelsgns smogs pue `salols Snip Xq paleuiucop si 61o2alea sigy 'sajols a lej leuosaad pue q;leag ZZCZ$ 961,`Z$ E09'9$ salols OBBJan02 pue pond £8$ %M Z6$ %Z9 99$ swots lonbll pue'awM Saag 01,$ %Lbl 9l$ %"l, Ll$ swots pool fgIwads iaglo IIV OL$ %991 93 %Z69 99$ salols lnu pue fuempapop 9$ %lL E$ %£L £$ swots spoo6 pamee Zl$ %99 9$ %0 0$ slaMiew algela69n pue l!mj £$ %ZZl 4$ %0 0$ slaIlew poo;eas pue qs! j Zl$ %OU Zl$ %0 0$ slalpew leaw O6$ %b9 9L$ %9EE l0E$ ealo)e aaaua!uanuop L69'l$ %401, L96'1,$ %6lE 990'9$ saIols(aaualuanuw ldaoxa) Aiaow6 iaglo pue slalpeunadng Alunoa unoolo sales unoolo sales elelo elues % sy epdea lad % sy el!de� Jad $ OIOZ ui sales gdea Jed lenuuy palewgs3 9008 easy SpellRION soleE) Sol 2008 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2010 $ Los Gatos Retail Trade Area Per Capita As % Per Capita As % Santa Clara Sales of County Sales of County County Men's clothing stores $41 89% $274 $38 82% 158% $46 Women's clothing stores $431 231% $113 60% $186 Children's and infants' clothing stores $65 147% $43 98% $44 Family clothing stores $557 129% $463 107% $433 Clothing accessories stores $10 31% $11 34% $33 Other clothing stores $92 196% $70 148% $47 Shoe stores $106 83% $102 80% $128 Jewelry stores $222 184% $119 99% $120 Luggage and leather goods stores $82 365% $12 53% $22 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $1,607 $970 $1,061 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores. Among this group of store types, Los Gatos shows per capita sales above Santa Clara County for most subcategories. Sporting goods store sales, the largest category, are due in large part to the Town's bicycle shops. Los Gatos shows no sales for news dealers /newsstands and prerecorded tape, compact disc, and record stores, but these categories are small categories which have been impacted by a switch to online news reading and downloadable music. Additionally, the per capita book store sales shown here for the Town do not take into account the recent closure of Borders; it is possible there may now be an opportunity for a smaller, independent bookstore in Los Gatos, but this subcategory has also been impacted by online sales (e.g., Amazon) and now by e- readers, which may affect the potential long -term viability of such a store. 2008 Estimated Annual Per Capita Sales in 2010 $ Los Gatos Retail Trade Area Per Capita As % Per Capita As % Santa Clara Sales of County Sales of County County Sporting goods stores $274 207% $208 158% $132 Hobby, toy, and game stores $144 218% $82 124% $66 Sewing, needlework, and piece goods stores $51 447% $22 188% $11 Musical instrument and supplies stores $14 52% $24 91% $27 Bookstores $116 129% $84 94% $90 News dealers and newsstands $0 0% $0 0% $1 Prerecorded tape, compact disc, and record stores $0 0% $9 89% $10 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores $598 $429 $337 General Merchandise Stores. Los Gatos is almost entirely lacking in general merchandise stores, and as a result has almost no sales in this category. While some of these sales may be occurring in other types of outlets such as drug stores, this category overall represents a substantial gap in the retail mix in the Town. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 69 of 150 09 [ 3o OL a$ed X2;U w)S )uauldolanaQ ssauisng pue ,tpn)S )alaelnl weld atgloodS ,C)aod quoN 6961$ 9Z£'t$ 9L8't$ 4b$ 60Z'b$ saoeld 6ulyult4 pue saowag pond 6b$ 1,93 %EL 9£$ bb$ %6LE Sgt$ (sa6elan9q o!logwle) Swe!d 6Uo00(I L$ %Z6 1,$ valuaoladns pue sgn!o asnogateM %ESL L$ SaolNas pool allgoW LZ$ %0 %£9 Lt$ SE4$ %Ssb EZt$ slalaleo 0M 0$ %9£ £8$ sales %££Z 199$ Smloel)000 aaINBS poo j OL1$ %ftt Z63 el!dep tad %9LZ 894$ sjeq a6wanaq o!logooleuou pue goeus 63 easy apeul Helall %t6 9Z$ %0 O$ slagnq pue'slagnq pu6'seualaleo ZZ9$ %4ot 949$ %01,1, 499$ sluemelsw aowas- papwlq LM %901, £L8$ %£9Z 1,91'3 sluemelsal ames -pnj unoa lunoo to sales unoolo sales melo Blues 8£$ %sV el!dea tad unoa to %sV el!deo'ad $OtOZ u! sales elided lad lenuuV pa)ewgs3900Z weld Blues easy aped pelaa solee soq 'splogasnoq outoaui g2iq jo olgoad aigdujOoutap Bare aq) o) palms -Ilom /CIm[not)zed )ou 6lgegoad si ogoiu sitil •s)a33nq/s1333nq II /seua)a3ea si so)eE) soZ ni Oucjoul ad,C)gns Sluo aqL -umoL ag) ui sales )ueane)saa oq) ;o 31eq ,Claleunxoadde do Sui4ecu `stseq a)nlosge ue uo sales e)[dea aad ',3uous .telnopaed aneq Slueane)Saa aamaas -llnd -salaoOoleogns aq)3o Ile isoutle ao3 gOnouli sazusa scsXleue Aujual oq) ui anoge pa)ealpul se CaoSa)ea slq) ui q)Ouaa)s lieaano s,umoL aqL saaeld Nuplui I (I pue saalnaaS poog OS£$ 9Z£'t$ L££$ 4b$ 9Z0't$ stalle)aa ato)8 snoauellaos!W t4$ 1,93 %98 S£$ bb$ %£41. 89$ (sajols woegol ldaoxa) siallelw aiols snoauellaosu sago IIV 91,$ %££t 2$ valuaoladns pue sgn!o asnogateM %Lot LL$ sajols owegol LS$ %0 %0 0$ SE4$ %0 0$ va!eap awoq (apgow) patMoelnueIN 4$ 0$ %691, L$ sales %966 lZ$ waleap PV 99$ Vlt 9L$ el!dep tad %bLE £4Z$ sajols sagddns led pue lad 9E$ easy apeul Helall %Z8 OE$ %9Z Ot$ sajols as!puegalew pasn Z9$ %b£t OL$ %SZ8 tE4$ saaols nuannos PUB '6llanou'glo ZL$ %Ott 09$ %68Z 60Z$ sajols Anuogels pue sallddns wg}o £t$ %£St 61$ %OOE 8£$ slspolj undo unoa to sales unoa ;o sales weld Blues %SV eudea tad %sV el!deo tad $Ot0Z uw sales el!dea Jed!enuuV palew!1s3900Z easy apwl 0ela)l soleo soq 'XIu' lte)aa 8019D so-I ag) 3o )xa)uoo aq) in sagtun)aoddo lel)uelsgns )ou aae )eq) sagalu lmin a letaads anell S31BS e)cdea .tad p;)j uzil iaan q)Im sadfi aao)s om) aqL -,Cao3a)eo zoCuut lle -galea sitp 2ulsudu oo sodd) aao)s ag) ssoaoe sales e)ideo aad iluoals ,Slaumalxa seq so)eD sort •saape)ag aao3S snoauellaasgV 899't$ 9Z£'t$ 4b$ satol8 aslpuegojew leuauag 99$ %49Z 1,93 %99 bb$ SaJolS aslpuegwaw iejau06 taglo llV 894$ %ts 6£Z$ %0 O$ valuaoladns pue sgn!o asnogateM LS9$ %9L 694$ %0 0$ sajols luawyedep lunoos!d SE4$ %EOL 644$ %0 0$ (sajols luawlledap)unoos!p ldaoxa) swols luawpedad luno3;o sales unoolo sales ;unoa eaelo Blues %9V el!dep tad %sV alldeo lad $0tOZ u! sales el!deo tad!enuuy palewgS3900Z easy apeul Helall soled soq Retail Market A sG s sf Dnt; Summary Existing Conditions Los Gatos has fared relatively well with respect to its retail real estate over the past few years. Currently, the retail vacancy rate for the Town is estimated at approximately five percent, indicative of a balanced market where vacancies occur as a regular part of the business cycle. Vacancy rates for the entirety of west Santa Clara County are slightly higher, but still not at extremely high rates on average. For the Town, low vacancies have been driven by the strong demographics of the area, and by a constrained supply; the supply of spaces of 10,000 square feet or more is particularly limited. The limited presence of national chains such as Borders that have undergone downsizing and liquidation has also helped keep vacancies lower in Los Gatos. Rents in Los Gatos declined at the onset of the recession, but have since rebounded somewhat. Downtown has shown the strongest rents and lesser dollar decreases. The RTA contains a large mix and variety of regional retail centers ranging from discount to high end shopping, and from power centers to lifestyle centers to major enclosed malls. In addition to these centers, there are other regional centers beyond the RTA that draw shoppers from the RTA. Some of these centers both within and outside the RTA will be competitive with any region- serving retail at the North 40, depending on the particular shopping experience that is provided by the project. The RTA's retail sales for 2008 are estimated at approximately $8.4 billion, about 10 times the sales in Los Gatos alone. While somewhat smaller proportionally than for the Town, motor vehicle and parts dealers, food and beverage stores, and food services and drinking places are the three largest categories for sales in the RTA. There are some variations by store category, but the RTA's levels of per capita sales are much closer to the countywide and statewide levels than the Town's. Retail sales for the Town for 2008 are estimated at approximately $838 million (in inflation - adjusted 2010 dollars). The three largest categories by sales volume are motor vehicle and parts dealers at 30 percent, food and beverage stores at 23 percent, and food services and drinking places at 15 percent. The proportion of the Town's total retail sales in motor vehicle and food store sales are considerably higher than found in the RTA, the County, or the State, although they have declined since 2008. The Town shows almost no sales in general merchandise stores, well below the proportions for the other geographies. On a per capita basis, retail sales in Los Gatos are quite high, at $28,653 annually compared to less than $14,000 annually for the other three geographies. Several sectors have per capita sales at more than twice the levels found in the RTA; the only sectors lagging the RTA in per capita sales are the building materials group and general merchandise stores. Total inflation- adjusted taxable retail sales in Los Gatos dipped in the early part of the last decade following the dot -com bust, and then gradually increased to a peak in 2006; sales declined again North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 71 of 150 05 to ZL a2ud Oale11S luamdolanaQ ssaulsng pue XpnIS 1011uw weld agtoodS ,CUod g1zoN 'umoZ alp Lit slolulaua2 xel sales Isa2lel alp jo auo si golgm `auo1S olddd aqi le sales 2ulsuanuu of lied ul anp si �l0udn suq,y '6002 u! noTlllm 861$ wouj papunogaz sell lnq `SO0Z ui uo[lllut SZZ$ ulozl pa11ga0p sell lanai sales slgI `siseq palsnfpu- uollupm uu up 'umoy aqi uoj loleaaua2 xul L se pue uollutipsop 2ulddous u se 30aeo111124s sIl 2uluuguo3 `lelol s,umoy agllo Iu3olad 0S lano 10 `sales Ilulaa alquxul ul uogllut 60Z$ XIaleuuxoAde paluu0ua2 soleg sort umolumoQ `010Z ul 'a3ualgwu dlpuauj- ueulsapad put umol hems agl aou3u3dxa of 2ululoo snumol- 3o -lno ql!m `uocluutlsap Isunol e oslu si umolumoQ •aauauadxa umolumop 3ql aoj solug so-I of amoa inq Xgm3u Iu 3J p3luauo- a311aluaeu03 aldut13 aneq `aso f uuS pue `Ilogdweo `ouluadnD se Bons salua ,igreau laglo tuoul suaddogS '2uculp Pee `saolnuas pue spool Xlteloods `small ,Cup,Caana uol umolumoQ 01 011100 pile s2muallo 1!11131 palling aneg 1131gm `001131uS puu ouauaS OluoW Xllucaadsa `saluunwwo3 Xgleou 13g10 se llom se soleg so-I moil suaddogs 2ulmeup `ttopeugsop Ilelal u se eaas si umolumoQ slol fti*lud Xq halls aqi moil 13eg las sauols glum `ualuaD 2uuddogS soleD sort alp put, ualuaD suaal2lcM aqi su gans sualuaa dues IBUOTIUOAU00 pu11 `,CemajeS pepuedxo pill llwgau undo- of -woos oq1 p11e suaau2luM X1113loadso `sasols ua2uul autos ale aaagl `ualugns glloN aqi ill -znuD uluuS uo swols aqi pmgoq slol ludtolunut ul pue 13011s -110 papinoud 2uIN ed qum `s)llemoprs pue laous aqi of luaaefpe /�Ilaallp lied Isom alp coj on sessautsnq auoD agl `umoy plo jo uuiuod uualsua alp jo uogdooxa aql quAN •slallelau ulugo maj smeutoo OuoD atp `oDuuuuplo Ilelau elnuuol aqi jo osnuooq pup `saleld uooll iolleuus Xq pazualouego si OcoD agl, •sacols ,Qauolluls /s looq puu `,fol `spool 2ullaods su gans slatlno llelaa ,tlluloads jo sodll snouen sopnlaut golgm `llela.t uaglo puu `3uuluup puu 2ullua `laludde to we suouuuluoouo0lsa2uul aqy •1111101 puumoi uopeluauo 1sa2uouls aqi sell puu `umolumoQ all) ut sossaulsnq Ile jo suauunb- a3.tgl /CImau uoj slunoam eam auoD oqs •laaulS uleyq pue anuaAV znla elneS 2uole Slluemud `saanlanuls ouolslq snolaumu gljm &n1los hauls -uleut umol -pulls e ul sdogs items jo xiw e gllm `solaD so•j jo ,,uea11„ oql sluasaldaa a1oD umolumoQ Dell, •101Jlslp ICllsuanlun /II1H wossolg alp Poe upjoM umolumoQ `woD umolumoQ aqi :suauugns aaagl seq umolumoQ •sualuaa pooquogg2lau aqi pue puen01nog soleE) so-1 `umolumoQ aq1 we segue tlelw ,Gewud s,umoy aqy -slam[ OOOZjo luaaaad 09 o1 `ougoap teuuelsgns e smogs (Mooq put spool 2ulluods se vans llelaa ,tlletoods sopnlaul gatgm) dnou2 Ilulal aaglo 1113-43lua aql ,Clio `10100s anlloutolne atp utouj op!sd 'OOOZ ul osogl of leilmls sales palsnfpe uollutlUl OIOZ aneq suoloes llelaa lofuuu aqi jo 1sow uolleUuT col 2ulisnfpu uagu stanal OOOZ to luaouad I Z ,Sluo aaam umoy aql ul sales alocgan colow algexel `O I OZ ,Cg 'aolaas olonlan uolow alp to augaap aqi si soluo sort ul sales Ilulau jo aag33p weal -2uol aqi to uoloej ,Carl aqy •umoy 0111 ul glm012 uollelndod pauuuq XJOA to punou2)laeq e lsuiu2u po. unoao sales Ilulal ui sa2uugo asagy 'O I OZ ul Xllg2gs paaano0al uagl `60OZ gOnougl Within the overall Downtown area, the Core is responsible for 80 percent of total taxable sales. Long -term trends in overall taxable sales in the Downtown Core show that in inflation - adjusted dollars, sales were substantially higher in 2000 than in 2010. Sales declined from 2000 through 2003, but rebounded in 2004 even with Santana Row opening in 2003. Sales increased again in 2005, declined in 2006, increased to a post -2010 peak in 2007, and then declined as the recession took hold, reaching the low point of the decade in 2009. A modest increase was seen in 2010. It appears that general macroeconomic regional trends were a greater factor influencing sales levels in the Core than the additional competition provided by Santana Row. Much of this decline, however, was not in the major retail categories considered key sectors for the Core, but instead in auto - related retail (dealers and service stations) and non - retail outlets (personal and business services). The key retail sectors combined showed smaller declines over the decade, and eating and drinking places showed limited variation over the ten years. Formula retail, while restricted in the Downtown Core, nevertheless accounts for a significant proportion of taxable retail sales. In 2010, stores designated as formula retail in the Downtown Core provided over 30 percent of taxable retail sales in the area, while making up only seven percent of the retail outlets. Over half of the Downtown Core's taxable sales in apparel stores are in formula retail stores, and a much higher proportion of taxable sales in home furnishings and appliances are in formula retail stores (due to the Apple Store). The only drug store downtown is Pharmaca, a fornula retailer. The recently closed Border's, a formula store, was the only bookstore. Excluding restaurants and food stores (neither of them subject to the formula retail ordinance), formula retailers account for over half of the taxable retail sales in the Downtown Core. Los Gatos Boulevard is a mix of community shopping centers, auto dealers and related businesses, and free - standing retail outlets. The four largest shopping centers are each anchored by a supermarket. Los Gatos Boulevard is strongly differentiated from Downtown in its retail mix, with a more limited number of stores carrying "comparison" goods such as home furnishings and apparel. There are considerably more mid -size store spaces, such as the supermarkets, drug stores, and the hardware store. While the Downtown configuration allows for a strong pedestrian- oriented experience, Los Gatos Boulevard is generally auto - oriented. Los Gatos Boulevard had taxable retail sales of approximately $152 million in 2010. This is a steep decline from $191 million in 2008 (inflation adjusted), resulting largely from declines in the automotive sector, due to the closure of two major dealerships. Taxable sales in the automotive sector on Los Gatos Boulevard declined from $80 million in 2008 to $57 million in 2010. Los Gatos has four major neighborhood centers: Rinconada Center, Downing Center, Walgreens Square, and Vasona Station. These centers are convenience - oriented, with anchors and other stores that largely serve nearby residents rather that attracting a regional clientele. Interestingly, these neighborhood centers are all located at or near the Town boundaries, thus attracting shoppers from outside the Town since they represent the closest grocery or drug store shopping. These centers North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 73 of 150 09 3o bL 30ud ,CSaleulS luouidolanaQ ssauisng pue XpnlS 13311uA Mid agioadS ,CUod g1iox Isom ui salnlipuadxa luapisal pue sales pelal uaamlaq oaueleg aeilelau e Suquaiput `stseq eltdea uad e uo nmol gonul aq of nodde suoiloofui pue saSe)1e01 JO slanal oql `yyg 1ai?el aql 1od eeiy apeal AMP& -,C1oSal13a aql jo lapuieutal aq1 ssonu sales palilug Suniseut on sales Suouls ,Clau1a11xa s,auols sigy wolS alddy aip ui sales Sq paleuauop si fao2aleo soouegdde pue sSutgsiuln3 autoq aql soleD so(I ut `aldutexo .tod •,C102aleo aloes legs ;o jsau aql ,Cq aaueuuo3lad good 31seu1 uea sales Suouls ,Cloumgxo grim jallno auo my si uolae3 Xoj leuopippe auo -sluapisal li3gl3o autos 1o3 Suiddogs ,C13p6uaea lsasola aql Suua33o soleD so I 1 lim `s2ui1a33o 1113101 palimg aneq umol jo glnos aql of wale polesoduoouiun ag1 pue ouauaS aluow XIieiaadsa pue e$oleles jo sailla SuuoggSiau omi aql `alouuaglund tmol aql jo sauepunoq ag leou sualuao Of ual3o `soInD so7 ui salols acp 3o uoileool oql of anp si stgl `lualxo autos oy -,Clleaol pasegolnd xIlensn we legs spooS aauaivanaoo ale sulali aloes Soup pue souaaolS aouis `,Cquomalou Spulno?ued si sauols am Itmoslad pue glleaq uo3 pue S3101S aSeuanaq pue pool uo3 sales jo suopoafa13o lanai gShq aqy -,Cllenuuu uogliui 08$ ,Ciaeutixoldde 3o sa2lmleal poleutilso pautclmoo pue `,Cllenuue sales Tie131 ui aogilTU OZ£$ CJJBOU JO suogoafui pouiqutoa paleulilsa seq sowD so7 `,CuoSaleo auols lofeul ,fq legj saleoipui sis,Cl13ue aql `llelan0 -p.iuX 1aqulnl luopuadepui ue 10 joda(I auwg se Bons 3101S laaatanolduti otuoq aS1el e aneq lou saop umoy oql inq `sauols autmpleq oml Suipnloui slalino IeuaAas ale alagl `dnoAl sleuolew Suipljnq aql uod soleq so-I ui salois Bons 3o aouasge alaldutoo 10 uuau oql of anp si salols asipuegouaut IelauaS uR sales do loel oqy •soleD so7 ;o lno Suijeal oq of modde sauols astpuegauaut IelauaS 1o3 selnlipuadxo luapisel lie ,Clueau pue `soleg soZ 3o inc, Suolual on ,C1oSalea sleualew Saipljnq aql at salnljpuadxa luapisal Ieilualod jo 31eg lano `sa2e3leel Imiuuisgns Bate 1oj ino purrs `sauols osipuegouaut lujmmS pue sjuuajeat Suiplinq `sauoSalea om•I, -sauols area Ieuostod pue glleaq pue `(siueunelsal sapnloui gaigm) saainlas pool `su0leap sued pue aloigan bloat `sauojs aSelanaq pue pool, uod g2ol ,Cilelnoilued aue suoilooful -sauoSaleo aloes uofeul isow ai sales jo suopofut smogs solug so-I `slam[ sales elidea .tad gSiq su gliA\ SOME) so-7 -aSmjeal wyjo uoquod u aunlduo pinoo ,Cage ley gans uogPinS13uoa woos uo `xiut osipuegouaul `Suila3lueut pue Xi?alells ui saSuego gSnosgl slallno Suilsixo jo Sutuoiltsodal e 10 saSe3 eal osogl 2UI132lel slallno mau jo Suluado aql gSnougl laglla `sales posewoui lloddns of olge aq Xutu ease aql `[anal paotpaud oql molaq We slanal sales g -sluapisal s,eaue legs ,Cq paelauaS sales leilualod aql 3o alnseaut e sapinoud will 3lueulgou3q autos grim ease ae ut sales Iielal Ienloe sauedumo sis,fleue uoilaafui pue aSe3leal Ilela2I SISAIeuy u01400ful pue afie )lea-1 pmmo[nog soleD so(I 10 umolumocl aegl uoipodozd lalleuts ganut e `010Z ui sales pelau algexel u1 uolliiut b£$ ,Claleuaxoldde 1oj palunooae pauuqutoa categories. Even though the RTA is much more populous than the Town, estimated combined injections are lower, at approximately $230 million annually, and are concentrated in auto - related retail. The combined leakages are greater, at nearly $590 million annually, but are spread across a number of categories, with the largest leakages in the general merchandise store category. Comparative Retail Sales by Detailed Store Category The analysis drilled down to more detailed store types, comparing annual per capita sales for Los Gatos and the RTA with Santa Clara County and the State by detailed NAICS subcategory. This comparison highlights the subcategories that might represent some of the better opportunities to expand retail in the Town. Specific store types that appear to be lacking in sales in the Town include appliance stores, and specialty food stores such as meat markets, fish and seafood markets, and produce markets. The sales injections for clothing and clothing accessories stores reflects an overall strength, but the apparel stores in the Town tend to be high -end stores, not necessarily carrying the types of inexpensive everyday apparel more commonly found in many general merchandise stores. The per capita book store sales for the Town do not take into account the recent closure of Borders; while there might now be an opportunity for a smaller, independent bookstore in Los Gatos, this subcategory has been seriously impacted by online sales and now by e- readers, which may affect the potential long -term viability of such a store. As noted previously, Los Gatos is almost entirely lacking in all categories of general merchandise stores, and as a result has almost no sales in this category. While some of these sales may be occurring in other types of outlets such as drug stores, this category overall represents a substantial gap in the retail mix in the Town. Potential for New Retail Development in Los Gatos Los Gatos has a very strong retail sector, even taking into account the decline in auto sales over the last decade. The Downtown, while impacted by regional and national economic trends, has remained a strong retail destination, bringing in shoppers from outside the Town. The Town is unusual in that it also attracts shoppers for everyday items such as groceries, due in part to the location of supermarkets and drugstores near the edges of Town and in part due to the lack of shopping in Monte Serene, Saratoga and other nearby unincorporated areas. The leakage analysis shows that the Town is losing retail sales in the general merchandise store and building materials store categories to other retail outlets. These leakages are due largely to the lack of large- format stores in these categories in Los Gatos. In particular, there are almost no sales in Town in the general merchandise store category. There are sales in the building materials category, as there are two hardware stores and several other outlets in Town in this category, but there is not a home improvement center such as Home Depot or Lowe's. Additionally, the Town has limited options for appliances and consumer electronics; the Apple Store, while extremely successful, provides a limited range of items largely from one manufacturer. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 75 of 150 OS I l0 9L a$ed 0aleslS luouzdolanaQ ssaucsng pue Apn1S lo3ltew Ueld ogpadS Qzog cpzoN so1eO so7 uc xcuc pelaa Suyscxa agi luouualdwoo lq$iui legl suasn n2jel aol ands petal aptnoad of ,Cluunlaoddo ue luasa.ud /Seuu ops Oti gluoN acp le luouudolanap patt$[sap X [OIL udozdde `.ualaezego sp umlaa of Maas ssalignop lllm umo 1, acp apgM sazols ascpuegaiaui luuaua2.u0 `sazols tnaulaAO3duii auuoq `sezols oouegdde se Bons sasn zaOuel alepouuuoaoe of algeluene ate legs a.uocu zo Taal asenbs 000`01 Xialeuiixo.uddeto sole) so7 ui sands pelaz mal an; a.uaup `llnsai e sy •lrela.t elnuuol poliuug `azoO umotumoQ aql ur pue sdogs zalluus gllm `Taal umol -Mucus e uielat of azlsap s,umoy agl taal ;as s02eye01 aql `lualxa autos oy •laa.gS sunjdoH uo 131zeyg Caio)uoV� acp zeau pamisnla sa.cols pool Xllecoods pnanas ate azagl `,Calaxuag u laNxeuc aanpoid zacpoue pue doqs sacloinq auolepueis e ace X mopS aql toil ssoaoy •uoisuedxa iol sueld grim `lluH 1aInK.ceau auols e seq ospe femOjBS -dogs eked e pue `njunoo pooleas e `zalunoo leouc e `azols aonpoid e Sucpnloui szopuan pool Xlleiaads to xim sp gllm PH la�zeW of Xiluuxo.ud osola ui punol aq ueo s,aol• lapeay e `puelxeO glzoN cui pooyogqi�cau ai1puNaog aql uc `aldmexa zo3 •umol, aql of saaddogs pool aiouu sloeslie leg[ f2zauSs e olealo osp pinoa Xagl `slo lnuuadns oql of 2uio�3 sales autos wmdeo lq$lui swots pool Xile1oods allgAN -/w23teo pelaz stgl zol uopcsod Buoals s,umol, aql aaaegua pue xluI Omllelau pool aqi uopuoiq of Xi[unlcoddo ue luasaxdw osle ,Seat sa.[ois pool ,Sllepads to Joel aql `algozd 3lgdex2ouu3p pue uorleuclsop Sncddogs pool e se uogoealie $uoils- Xpeaale s,umoy aqi uan1O Office Market Assessment The purpose of this section is to offer an overview of the local office market and identify potential opportunities for further evaluation as part of the North 40 Specific Plan process. Current and historical data are provided in order to reveal how the local office market has performed over the course of the most recent economic cycle and suggest where the market is heading. In addition, this section considers employment trends in Santa Clara County— combining historical data and future projections —in order to determine the potential demand for new office space. An exhaustive list of projects currently in the development pipeline is provided in order to determine whether future construction will absorb any and all potential demand, or whether there will remain residual demand that may support office use as one component of the North 40 development program. Office Inventory As shown in Table 20, the Town had approximately 1.4 million square feet of office space at the end of the first quarter 2011, according to data furnished by Cornish & Carey Commercial Newmark Knight Frank. This represents about 12 percent of the 11.7 million square feet of office space in the Market Area but only a fraction of the South Bay inventory of 61.6 million square feet (2.2 percent). A representative of Cornish & Carey contacted by BAE indicated that most of the Town's office inventory is comprised of Class C and B buildings and that due to the age and floor plate configuration of the Town's existing buildings it is difficult to find space in the 75,000 to 100,000 square foot range in Class A buildings. Office Market Trends Figure 13 charts the fluctuations of both average asking rents and vacancy rates in Los Gatos, the Market Area, and the entire South Bay over the last five years.!' As shown, vacancy rates increased in both Los Gatos and the Market Area between 2006 and 2009, rising faster at the onset of the Great Recession in 2008/2009. Likewise, after declining at the onset of the study period, vacancy throughout the South Bay spiked in 2010. Starting in 2010 vacancy rates declined in Los Gatos and the Market Area and fell sharply in the first quarter of 2011. Across the South Bay, vacancies remained high until the end of the first quarter 2011 when leasing activity picked up to reduce vacancy rates. The shift in vacancy rates generally reflects an increase in technology and technology - related leasing. Despite recent gains, vacancy rates in Los Gatos, the Market Area, and South Bay are still markedly higher at the end of the decade than they were in the middle. Trends over the last five years indicate that Los Gatos 3s According to Cornish &. Carey Commercial Newmark Knight Frank's formulation, the South Bay consists of Campbell, Cupertino, Los Gatos, Milpitas, Mountain View, Santa Clara, San Jose, Saratoga, and Sunnyvale. It excludes Palo Alto, North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 77 of 150 09 30 8L abed X533 a1S luouidolOAOU ssaulsng pue 6pniS la)jjuW ueld aTgpodS Xlaod glaox s? •oul aalndmoj alddy aaagm oulpadn:) u? uolldaosge tau anl;lsod Xq X[le?luelsgns polony `alulaap of OUMM11100 are salea ,(aue3LA [eu013aa `luosaid le 112gl sleana.T papinoid logsdeus oqy I I OZ io aalaenb lsag aql jo se suo?I ?puoa 13NIOUI JO malnaano pa[lelap azouT L sap!noad OZ olgey LLOZ'3VO'OLOZ-900Z'AueJd 101u)i VewMaN Jeiwawwoo 6ajeo g gspoo :se 1nos o11V ojed sapnpxa 11 ajeAAuunS pue'e6ole,es'asop ueS'eJelO elueS'MaiA welunoW 'sel!dliW 'soled sol'ouiliedno'pagdwep sapnpui lahiew oo!go beg glnoS aqi (e) :aloN %0 %£ %9 nCi 0 %6 0 Zll ° /ZL '�- tU m %9L %8L °� LZ (e) luab (eg 4lnoS . _ _ lu% eaay 191aeIN _ _ luab so1eE) sog (e)Aoueo2A (eg glnoS sum loueoen eaay laWN MMM AoueoM SWO so-[ MMM LLOZ-M OLOZ 60OZ SON LOOZ 9002 • 000$ os o$ 00 L$ 0s L$ OO Z$ 1 00'£$ 09 £$ D CD v CD CD F ;T7 (D c N 0 (e) LLOZ Lb-900Z'Ae8 yinos -SA eaay 105lae(n[ 'SA soleg so-i'aiea RoueaeA pue ivaa BUIJSy a6eaany :£L aanB[j -moueu of slalaemgns 2ulpunouns pue soILD so,j uaamlaq deb 33ueuuo3aad oql Sulsneo `,i[mols aaoui paugoop beg g1noS pae easy 103lM[nl aq1 ai slaaa Suolse aSeaane `ISealuoa �Cg '800Z u? 00'£$ anoge 3u?�1ead aa13e auc[aaP3o alea 13 ?ms �Clan?lelaa 123u?�laem `9002 u? aaam Xotll uugl aamol aaam soltg so-j m sluaa Su?lse `[ I OZ 3o .Tala12nb lsag ;o pua oql jo sy ,(gduhioa3 uo 3u?puadop a)ea luaaap!p e 112 1Tagle `uoissaaa21 leaiE) oql Suunp aag123aagl apgsNoeq of ueRaq sluoU '80OZ pue 90OZ uaamlaq sluaa SmNse a$eaane ul oseaaoui ue mes sa?gdea9oaO oanp I[y aaaaplsaa alagl o1 asola uo?112ao1 3ag3o uE )133s 112111 S3A pnaaxa pue saaumo ssou?snq /Cq pueulap se 11om se suo?ssaaaa Suunp algels aq of puol ley slueual aagjo leo?pauT of painquue aq ,Cem eollemaopod s,umo,l, oqy 'uog4aa 0111 uelp ,Caueaen aamol /C[lequelsgns saanua3•llasli gon[m `eaay 131113W aql u121p ,C3ueaen3o 9[anal aamol ,ipg5 ?[s aauouodxa of spual headquartered. The South Bay has seen substantial net absorption (approximately 763,000 square feet) in the first quarter of 2011, accounted for by large blocks of space at Moffett Towers in Sunnyvale being leased to technology companies. On the whole, asking rents in the Market Area are continuing to slide, though asking rents are climbing, slightly, in Los Gatos.!' Therefore, the local office market is showing some signs of recovery, particularly in Los Gatos. Table 20: Office Market Overview, South Bay, Fourth Quarter 2011 (a) Overall Net Absorption Avg. Asking Office Market Inventory (sf) Vacancy Rate Q4 2010.Q1 2011 Rent ($Isf) (b) Los Gatos 1,368,790 8.8% (64) $2.58 Market Area 11,745,205 9.3% 52,672 $2.39 Campbell 2,267,022 16.7% (19,019) $2.19 Cupertino 4,054,170 7.9% 34,754 $2.85 Los Gatos see above Saratoga 323,128 9.9% 1,686 $2.67 West San Jose (c) 3,732,095 6.5% 35,315 $1.91 South Bay (a) 61,617,115 16.6% 762,961 $2.48 (a) The South Bay office market includes Campbell, Cupertino, Los Gatos, Milpitas, Mountain View, San Jose, Santa Clara, Saratoga, and Sunnyvale. It excludes Palo Alto. (b) Office rents are full service. (c) Data provider tracks office submarket conditions in West San Jose, which fails wholly inside the Market Area, Sources: Cornish & Carey Commercial Newmark Knight Frank; BAE, 2011. In sum, at the peak of an economic cycle, when office space is in high demand, Los Gatos outperforms both the Market Area and South Bay with lower vacancies and higher rents. At the trough of the cycle, however, while Los Gatos maintains above - average occupancy, rental rates converge with the regional average. As the local economy recovers, it remains to be seen whether this pattern will reemerge, causing office rents in Los Gatos to rise above competing submarkets, once again. To justify new speculative Class A, steel frame construction, rents would need to rise to above $3.25 to $3.50 per square foot on a full service basis —this rental range reflects the rent required to make a new office project financially feasible. F `Asking rent" refers to the listed rental rate and does not reflect the actual contract rate that a landlord and tenant agree to in an executed lease; asking rents tend to be somewhat higher than actual contract rents. 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(b) Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding error. (c) Consists of those sectors that predominantly generate demand for office space, including: Information; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Enterprises Health Care & Social Assistance; Government; and 50% of employment in both Real Estate & Rental & Leasing and Other Services, reflecting the fact that these categories combines office and non - office tasks. Sources: California Employment Development Department, 2010; BAE, 2011. 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Imam qmo uI sgof jo oAutowad awtuixozdde aql IuTxldde Cq '0£OZ pue OIOZ uaomlaq zoloos fiisnptif peozq Xq tpmoaS luauu, oldula3o uopoafozd (Dvev) sluaulUJDAOD easy �Cegl O uoflefoossy am uo paseq aaeds oog3o mau zo3 pueulap uual -Ouol atp salslnolea alqul Sufmollo; aqy sisAieuy puewea eolljo Table 23: Residual Demand Calculator, Market Area Projected Demand for Office Space, 2010.2030 (at) Existing Inventory and Vacancy, 1Q11 (a) Los Gatos Campbell Cupertino Saratoga Total 1,570,599 Calculation of Residual Demand: 7% Market Vacancy v.:10% Market Vacancy (b) Low Vacancy Vacancy Vacant Inventory (sf) Rate (sf) Inventory (sf) 1,368,790 8.8% 121,001 2,267,022 16.7% 378,819 4,054,170 7.9% 318,252 323 128 9.9% 31 990 8,013,110 48,751 850,062 Calculation of Residual Demand: 7% Market Vacancy v.:10% Market Vacancy (b) Low Vacancy High Vacancy Calculate Existing Inventory Deduction Vacancy Rate, 1 Q11 10.6% 10.6% Less "Normal' Vacancy (b) 7.0% - 10.0% - Percent Absorbable 3.6% 0.6% Existing Inventory (sf) 8.013.110 x 8,013.11 x Absorbable Available Inventory (sf) 289,145 48,751 Calculate Deduction for New Planned and Proposed Office Expected Net New Office (so (c) 613,770 613,770 Less "Normal' Vacancy (b) 42964 - 61377 - Absorbable Net New Office (sf) 570,806 552,393 Calculate Net Residual Demand Projected Demand for Office Space, 2010 -2030 (so 1,570,599 1,570,599 Less Absorbable Available Inventory (sf) 289,145 - 48,751 - Less Absorbable Net New Office (sf) 570 806 - 552 393 - Residual Demand (at) 710,648 969,455 (a) West San Jose is excluded in order to match the geographies used in the projected office demand calculator (ABAG). (b) It is assumed that a certain amount of "normal' vacancy will always exist. Based on observation of historical trends, it is assumed that between 7 to 10 percent of current and future inventory will remain vacant. (c ) Represents Expected New Office Construction from Table 24. Sources: Cornish & Carey Commercial Newmark Knight Frank; BAE, 2011. As of the fourth quarter of 2010, the Market Area featured around 930,000 square feet of vacant inventory, amounting to an 11.6 percent vacancy rate (West San Jose was excluded from this tabulation in order to match the available data on employment growth from ABAG). However, not all of this vacant supply should be considered competitive for future demand absorption. Office markets never achieve 100 percent occupancy. Therefore, it should be assumed that there will always be a normalized amount of vacancy. Based on observation of historical trends, this analysis assumes that the Market Area will always feature a seven to ten percent rate of vacancy. As such, Table 23 presents two analyses of residual demand: one in which a "normal' vacancy rate of seven percent is assumed, and one in which a "normal' vacancy rate of ten percent is assumed. 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Hotel Market sse inert The propose of this section is to assess the potential for market absorption of a new hotel development at the North 40. This analysis draws on performance data from area hotels provided by Smith Travel Research (STR) to reveal how the Market Area performs in relation to the County as a whole, and how the Great Recession has affected that performance. In addition, this section considers how the site relates geographically to key demand drivers —such as major institutions and leisure destinations —as well as competing properties in order to judge the viability of new hotel development. Insights from interviews conducted with key informants knowledgeable about the local hotel market are provided, when applicable, as well. Existing Supply Table 25 on the following page presents a breakdown of the hotel rooms in the Market Area and Santa Clara County according to STR's brand classification system." As shown, the Market Area features nearly 2,000 hotel rooms, or around 7.6 percent of the total number of rooms in the County. Compared to the County, however, the Market Area features an above - average proportion of upscale rooms, reflecting the fact that the West Valley is comprised of high -end residential communities. Hotel rooms qualified by STR as "upscale" or better (including rooms at upper -tier independent properties) account for 79 percent of supply in the Market Area, as compared to around 68 percent in the County as a whole. Interviews with representatives of the Los Gatos Chamber of Commerce indicate that this concentration towards stylish properties with high - quality amenities complements the main demand drivers for overnight room stays in Los Gatos, which include: • Business travel generated not only by firms located in Los Gatos, but also those located in downtown San Jose and other areas of central Silicon Valley; • Leisure travel related to shopping and dining in downtown Los Gatos, as well as area wineries; and • Weddings and other social events. Hotel Los Gatos and Toll House Hotel, for example, both feature upscale restaurants and provide access to full- service day spas. Located adjacent to downtown Los Gatos' unique retail environment and the many vineyards in the nearby Santa Cruz Mountains, these hotels are well - positioned to capture lucrative weekend travel. Further, they provide an alluring alternative to hotels located in downtown San Jose or off of Highway 101, which lack the historical charm and convenient walkability of downtown Los Gatos. According to the Chamber, the general managers a� Smith Travel Research only publishes data on those hotels and motels that respond to the company's surveys. Therefore, all STR data represents a sample, rather than a 100 percent count. However, as their surveys yield a very high participation rate, STR data is deemed a reliable representation of the hotel market as a whole. 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The Fairmont San Jose, with 805 rooms, comprises the vast majority of this market segment, while the Rosewood Resort at CordeValle in San Martin accounts for the remaining 44 rooms .42 The Market Area does not contain any name -brand luxury properties. Despite Silicon Valley's global reputation as a center of high technology, many of the world's most famous hotel products are missing from the region. Mandarin Oriental, St. Regis, and Le Meridien all have hotels in San Francisco, and Ritz- Carlton has hotels in both San Francisco and Half Moon Bay. But none of these brands have a presence in the South Bay, where the only luxury products of global notoriety are W Silicon Valley in Newark and Four Seasons Silicon Valley in East Palo Alto. Although the North 40 site is outside a major business cluster it is a short drive from many demand generators and offers an enhanced level of cultural and recreational amenities. Planned and Proposed Competition At the time of writing, only two new hotels were proposed for development within the Market Area, as shown in Table 26. If built, these projects will add approximately 123 rooms deemed upscale or better to the Market Area. However, both prospective sites are located approximately 15 minutes away along Stevens Creek Blvd. in Cupertino, where the intent is likely to capture business generated by Apple and other major corporate tenants. Further, one of the proposed hotels is to be located amidst the Main Street mixed -use development, which will strive to create a self - contained hub of activity akin to Santana Row. As such, these projects, in the case that they should come to fruition, should be considered indirectly competitive with a prospective North 40 hotel in terms of room stays. Table 1, first discussed in the Site Description above, provides a list of major institutions and leisure destinations in the San Jose -Santa Cruz metro area that may be capable of sparking demand for overnight room stays at a North 40 hotel. This list reveals that the metro area features myriad potential demand generators, including a number of arts and entertainment venues, business hubs, and universities. However, most all of the sites listed are served by existing nodes of hotel rooms that, for all intents and purposes, have the capacity to absorb demand generated by nearby attractions. ,2 Rosewood Resort also has a property in Menlo Park outside the Market Area to the north (approximately 23 miles). 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Under such circumstances, proximity is at a premium, as patients and their visitors want to be able to reach the hospital as quickly as possible. At present, Good Samaritan places travelling staff in the Marriott Residence Inn or Larkspur Landing, as they provide amenities that lessen the burden of extended stays, and places executives in Hotel Valencia on Santana Row. Both extended stay properties are located within a five to ten minute drive in Campbell. However, a representative of the Hospital indicates that a North 40 hotel would be a welcomed convenience, particularly if it were to offer rates or discounts below the existing price point for comparable properties. Similarly, a representative of El Camino Hospital Los Gatos, which specializes in hip and joint work, believes that a hotel geared towards long -tern stays —one that has a pool and allows pets, for example- -could accommodate their rehab patients. In addition to demand generated by nearby medical complexes, high -end leisure travel focused on retail, scenery, and the arts may present a secondary opportunity for hotel development. The North 40 site is located midway between downtown Los Gatos and Santana Row /Valley Fair, amounting to a major axis of upscale retail. Similarly, the site provides strategic access to parks and vineyards nestled into the hills above Los Gatos and Saratoga, which is also home to the popular Montalvo Arts Center. It should be noted that Saratoga is underserved by hotel rooms, and both public officials and business representatives steer visitors to lodging options in Los Gatos. However, as existing hotels in downtown Los Gatos provide immediate access to local shopping and dining, this strategy would rely on providing convenient transportation linkages between the North 40 and nearby attractions. Performance Trends Data provided by STR allows for comparison between the performance of hotels located within the Market Area and those located within Santa Clara County at large. STR gathers information on key performance indicators from participating hotels. While STR does not capture 100 percent participation, the vast majority of area hotels share information, allowing for a meaningful analysis of the hospitality market. As shown in Figure 14, overall occupancy in the Market Area peaked in 2007 at 75 percent. While occupancy fell rapidly over the following two years due to the national recession, bottoming out around 65 percent in 2009, it shot backup in 2010 to 72 percent, nearing peak levels. Room demand in the Market Area in 2010 actually exceeded demand in 2007, climbing to over 510,000 room - nights from a previous peak of around 490,000. This growth in demand is obscured by the fact that the Marriot Courtyard in Campbell opened in early 2010, adding 162 rooms to the Market Area, thus suppressing the overall occupancy rate. In other words, the Market Area experienced more demand for hotel room - nights in 2010 than it did during its pre- recession peak. For more - detailed STR data, see Appendix H. 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(e) :saloN 000'09£ 000'OOb 91 0 3 000'09b 3 000'005 m 0 000'099 Q 000'009 000'099 (q) puewaa woob ® ®® Aouednoop Moo 60OZ 8002 LOOZ 9002 5002 %b9 %R9 O %Z9 n c a %99 n %OL oA m °/ bL %9L (e) 0L0Z-900Z `easy aa>IjeW puewaa woos pue alell I[ouedn000 :ill, aan6ld Figure 15: ADR and RevPAR, Market Area, 2005 -2010 (a) $160 $140 E $120 0 0 K $100 $80 $60 $40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ADR — — — RevPAR (b) Notes: (a) Includes all hotels and motels in the Market Area and County that participate in Smith Travel Research's surveys. Figures do not represent a 100 percent count. (b) RevPAR, or Revenue per Available Room, is calculated by dividing total room revenue by the total supply of rooms for a given period. Sources: Smith Travel Research; BAE, 2011. Figure 16 on the following page compares the historical performance of hotels throughout Santa Clara County to those located in the Market Area, which consistently outperform the countywide baseline. As shown, the difference between the trend line of the Market Area and that of the County remained relatively stable before, during, and after the Great Recession, regardless of performance indicator. This implies that while the Market Area is as vulnerable to the business cycle as the rest of Santa Clara County, local hotels, in the aggregate, have performed better than the corresponding County average for all hotel properties regardless of whether the market is in a peak or trough. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 95 of 150 09130 96 abed 63ajez ;S juawdo)ana(J ssoucsng pue CpmS ixpu w ue[d ogpodS ,C7zod q>zoK I, LOZ '3V8 'goleasaa IaneJl gl!wS :saojnog *pouad u0n16 a jo; swow to Alddns jejol all dq anuanaA wow eloi 6uipin!p 6q polepoleo si 'wooa algepeny iad anuanab io "dVdAGH (q) junoo luawed 001 a luasoidaa lou op sain6! j s6anms s,gojeasaa I9AUJJ gjiwS uj aledio!lied jell dlunoo pue eeiy jolieW all ul s!olow pue s!alog Ile sapn!ou! (e) :saloN (q)HVdnay --- (q)aHdna2! — ®® bay (;unoo— bpy eaJy;a(aeW OIOZ 60OZ 8002 LOOZ 9002 9002 (lunoo. eaiy)a )jjeW® OWZ 60OZ RON LOOZ 9002 9002 Ob$ 09$ 09$ m 001$ �7 0 0 oZl$ 3 otil$ 091$ %09 %99 O %09 0 c v %99 0 %OL d m %9L %09 (la) OLOZ-900Z `n;unoo eJe13 a ;ueg •sn easy ;allJLW 'NVd^a21 Pula mav'a ;eb Rouednaap :% ain6ij f0eeting Space Market Assessment The purpose of this section is to assess the potential for market absorption of meeting facilities on the North 40. Two types of facilities are considered: (1) hotels that feature space for business meetings of 50 to 500 people and (2) dedicated day -use conference facilities that can host meetings of a similar scale, but do not feature attached hotel rooms. No data is available to assess the utilization or performance of these types of facilities. Therefore, this analysis serves mostly to describe the type and geographical distribution of existing facilities in the Market Area, which make up the competitive supply. In addition, an analysis of how the site relates geographically to major employers is provided in order to shed limited insight onto whether or not demand can support additional conference facilities. Insights from interviews conducted with key informants knowledgeable about the local conference market are provided, as well, in order to further suggest the magnitude and type of existing demand. Hotel Meeting Space As shown in Figure 17 and Tables 27 and 28, the hotels that feature meeting space for 50 to 500 people are concentrated in a few distinct clusters within the Market Area. Downtown Los Gatos features a collection of full- service hotels with meeting space. Another cluster exists in Campbell around the Pruneyard Shopping Center, including two limited- service facilities and the Courtyard San Jose Campbell, which opened in 2010.6 San Jose features Joie de Vivre's Moorpark Hotel and Hotel Valencia, which provides the only source of meeting space on Santana Row. Finally, the largest cluster of rooms exists in Cupertino in the vicinity of Apple's corporate headquarters and a large outpost of Oracle employees. The area of Cupertino around Stevens Creek and North De Anza Boulevards is one of the strongest office hubs within the Market Area, and its prominent technology tenants likely drive a significant portion of the demand for business travel and meeting space. In fact, two more hotels are planned for this area, representing the only hotel developments currently in the pipeline in the entire Market Area. At present there are no hotels in the Market Area that can accommodate more than 285 people in a single room. A 123 -room Hyatt Place recently received planning approval, and the project is slated for completion by the end of 2012. With 6,000 square feet of meeting space, the Hyatt Place will become the Market Area's largest hotel meeting facility in terms of conference square footage. Another hotel is planned as part of the 17 -acre Main Street Cupertino development at Vallee Parkway. While the overall project is progressing slowly, as the developer seeks to tenant the office and retail components before breaking ground, the hotel will likely be the first phase to move forward. The developer has not yet announced whether or not the project will include i] Full service hotels offer more in services and accommodations than limited service hotel properties, typically an attached restaurant, 24 -hour valet service, dry cleaning, heated pools and saunas, well- equipped fitness centers, guaranteed high -speed wireless Internet access, and higher -end furnishing and finishes. 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N (n T w ry N N � N / \\ \\ \ \\ in / ( ± \) \\ / \\ \ }\ \ o o f ) \)m /() / \ j f \ 2 / § ! g \ : a j� 2 {) \ \ k / \\ \\ \ \\ in / ( ± \) \\ / \\ \ }\ \ o o / \ j \ 2 § § : a j� 2 k { \ } {\ 7 \ j 5 / \\ \\ \ \\ in / ( ± \) \\ / \\ \ }\ \ o o / \\ \\ \ \\ in / ( ± \) \\ / \\ \ }\ \ Table 28: Summary of Meeting Spaces at Comparable Hotels, Market Area (a) Name Location /Drive Time Meeting Space (a) Sizes Capacity by Configuration Theater Class Banquet Reception Los Gatos 64 N/A 655 Creekside Way (8 mins) Los Gatos Lodge EI Gato Room 1,800 150 80 120 N/A 55 Los Gatos - Saratoga Rd. (5 mins) De Anza Room 1,242 100 40 80 N/A 40 Garden Room 1,240 90 35 75 N/A Hotel Los Gatos Monte Sereno Room 1,900 100 80 150 200 210 E. Main St. (7 mins) Salons ABC or CDE 1,225 60 60 80 N/A Salons BC or CB 953 50 40 60 N/A Toll House Hotel Larkspur 1/2 1,920 180 90 150 N/A 140 S. Santa Cruz Ave. Is mins) Larkspurl 1,152 100 40 80 N/A Larkspur 758 70 30 50 N/A 60 Dining Room 576 50 30 36 N/A Campbell Courtyard San Jose Campbell Room 1,390 90 54 64 N/A 655 Creekside Way (8 mins) Pruneyard Plaza Hotel Harvest Room 1,060 90 65 90 90 1995 S. Bascom Ave. (9 mins) Orchard Room 730 60 40 60 80 Fireside Atrium 812 60 36 50 50 Campbell Inn Dining Room 1,000 60 N/A N/A 60 675 E. Campbell Ave. (10 mins) Cupertino Cupertino Inn De Anza Room 760 60 40 55 N/A 10889 N. De Anza Blvd. (11 mins) Hilton Garden Inn Cupertino Garden Room ABC 1,650 120 60 90 120 10741 N. Wolfe Rd. (12 mins) Garden Room AS or BC 1,100 80 40 60 80 Cypress Hotel Cali Ballroom 3,040 250 150 200 250 10050 S. De Anza Blvd. (13 mins) Cali A, B or C 1,026 70 30 60 70 Parkview 1,245 100 50 80 125 Parkview West 745 60 30 50 75 San Jose Hotel Valencia Santana Row Valencia 2,268 200 100 170 285 355 Santana Row (8 mins) Valencia I or 11 1,134 100 56 84 140 Santana 768 50 30 50 80 Moorpark Hotel Gentry Room 1,086 60 32 40 80 4241 Moorpark Ave. (9 mins) (a) Includes all spaces that can accommodate a business meeting of 50 to 500 persons seated theater style. Outdoor spaces are excluded. Source: BAE, 2011. 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Demand from Major Employers It is assumed that the primary source of demand for meeting facilities on the North 40 would be nearby firms or organizations that require space for large group activities, such as seminars, sales meetings, and trade shows. Table 2 in the Site Description section lists major private- and public - sector employers located within the Market Area in order of distance from the subject site. As discussed above, medical centers account for a significant share of employment in the project vicinity. Good Samaritan Hospital, Columbia Health Care /Mission Oaks Hospital, El Camino Hospital Los Gatos, Santa Clara Valley Medical Center, and O'Connor Hospital all lie within a ten - minute driving radius. Collectively, this constellation of core health care providers employs over 10,000 people. Taking into consideration the clusters of medical offices and labs that agglomerate around each hospital, health care is a major economic force in the West Valley —one that grew by over two percent annually Countywide between 2000 and 2009. While Santa Clara Valley Medical Center and O'Connor Hospital are situated closer to meeting hotels in Campbell and San Jose, as well as Campbell's Villa Ragusa, the North 40 is ideally situated to serve Good Samaritan, Mission Oaks, and El Camino's Los Gatos campus. Interviews with meeting planners from Good Samaritan and El Camino Hospital indicate that while El Camino generates little demand for off -site meeting space, Good Samaritan conducts an average of two off -site meetings per quarter. These include board meetings, director meetings, union - bargaining sessions, and other events. Good Samaritan currently uses the Toll House Hotel for conventional meetings because of its proximity, but often looks up to 15 miles away for venues to host its director meetings, which require an ambience that appeals to executive clientele. High -end meetings make up the bulk of off -site events generated by the hospital. In addition to health care, Table 2 shows that information technology is the other key private employment engine in the Market Area. Los Gatos itself houses a portion of Verizon's corporate offices and the headquarters of rising e- commerce powerhouse Netflix, located only a few minutes from the North 40. However, the largest clusters of tech firms within the Market Area are located in Cupertino and San Jose. In San Jose, the Market Area encapsulates the offices of eBay and Xilinx —a semiconductor designer —while excluding the bulk of the city's tech firms, which are located downtown and in North San Jose. Nevertheless, both of these firms have the potential to generate demand for North 40 meeting space, particularly Xilinx, whose Cambrian Park offices are located in relative isolation from most of the Valley's business services. In addition, Cupertino is home to the worldwide headquarters of Apple as well as offices of Redwood City -based Oracle and smaller software companies such as Trend Micro and Pegasystems." While these firms and others amount to a While HP currently houses approximately 3,000 employees in Cupertino, the company has announced plans to relocate those jobs to Palo Alto by the end of 2012; Apple Inc. has recently announced plans to redevelop the North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 107 of 150 OS 30 80 ai?ud aa;w}S luowdojanaQ ssauisng pup ,Cpn1S aax.mW uutd ogcoodS ,Cl.tod gvoN oualadnD ui saa,Cojdwa 000`Z t of do osnoq of ,Cuedum agt 7wvad atewilln p1noo legl sndwua oiesodioo mau e io} al's dH -a[qu[iunu autoaaq aurladid agz at mou sta;oq 2ugaaut aauo os azoui autoaaq,Ctuo Iiim pup `suoildo 2tupow osn -,Cup pup jaloq cgoq gzim paIusnlus ,fianti;piaz st ouivadna `.Cwonoaa uoilpnouui s,,Ca[Jpn uoag!S ulgzim apou Iupag!u,?is portun ities & Strategies for Do ve Iopm e rl+ Overview The North 40 site, at the intersection of two major freeways in a major metropolitan area, in a locale with a very strong demographic profile, is extremely well- situated to capture retail sales and other business from residents of Los Gatos and other nearby communities, and beyond. Given the site's strong locational attributes, it is likely that any of a broad range of business types would be very successful at site. However, Los Gatos residents and elected officials are legitimately concerned about impacts on other businesses in the Town, particularly the Downtown Core which is a major asset of the Town, and seeks uses that would be complementary to the Downtown. The Town also desires to preserve its small -town character, as stated in its General Plan. The General Plan also states, though, that there is overall community consensus that the town be a "full- service community that is also environmentally sensitive" and should "support an active business community that provides a wide variety of goods and services and a broad range of employment opportunities, minimizing the need to travel to other communities. "" The process of developing the North 40 site is in large part a process of balancing the goals of retaining the Town's small - town character while expanding the business community such that Los Gatos residents have less need to travel elsewhere for goods and services. The General Plan EIR provides general guidelines for the current North 40 Specific Plan Process: • Complement and not compete with Los Gatos' Downtown and the rest of the community. • Be based on sustainable and "smart" development practices. • Incorporate mixed -use development with residential uses to the south and retail mixed -use to the north. • Include a plaza at the center of the mixed -use area and a park at the center of the residential area. • Provide for a variety of residential housing types, both rental and owner occupied. • Provide at least 150 units of housing affordable to households at the moderate income level or below. • Include high - quality architecture and design that reflects the rural and agricultural history of the site. • Provide pedestrian - oriented buildings along the Los Gatos Boulevard frontage, with minimal parking oriented to the street. • Take advantage of the grade change across the site by including split -level buildings that allow for two floors of retail and "tuck under" parking. • Continue the "boulevard treatment" along Los Gatos Boulevard, with interconnections from one parcel's drive aisle to the next. Town ofLos Gatos 2020 General Plan, prepared for the Town of Los Gatos, prepared by Design, Community & Environment, January 7, 2011, p. VIS -1. 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' plenalnog sole,) so,j 2uop uwwlxew ,Go1s -oml e of slg3lag 3uiplinq 11w1Z . '58 PUB Ll s6Bmq&H woad slpq ogl,l0 smalA 3ulnaaSaad :3wpnlout `smaln pue maloeaego um01 anaasaad 58 PUB L s,Cemg3iH 3u0tu 3uluowos pue lojjnq 3nUB1330n e apinoad Bullem sa3e.woouo Unp Naomlau 1aa.ps poloouuoa 60n3 `a[gissa3ae 6llsea ue apinoad . -dwea jyo S8 6emq &H all pue plenalnog so1eD so71e pun `anuany N1e7 PUB plenalnog sole,) so71e swnlea3 xaewpuel mo 6emale3 dolana(1 . 'anuand 110-1 PUB plenalnog sole[) so7 3u01e su0113as13w 3UUSlxa 01 suopoauuoo apnloul 0 existing retail mix in the Town, and would be less likely to compete with existing stores, especially those Downtown, it is clear that satisfying this retail demand while retaining the Town's small - town character and meeting the general guidelines for development on the North 40 site represents a complex balancing act. Historically, the companies operating these stores prefer large floor plates on a single floor with extensive surface parking, but in recent years they have shown more flexibility in store configuration in order to enter desirable underserved markets where large vacant parcels are unavailable for traditional large-format retail development, particularly in built out urbanized areas. Appendix G presents several examples of stores on multiple -floor store spaces and in mix -use configurations across the nation, including Target, Walmart, Best Buy, Home Depot, and Whole Foods in several major U.S. cities. In another more local example, in San Francisco Target recently began renovations to build a smaller- format store of approximately 85,000 square feet in the Metreon complex in San Francisco. While Los Gatos represents a less urban market than these examples, Target has built stores in a two -story configuration elsewhere in more suburban locations in the Bay Area, including the store in Albany in the East Bay. A major home improvement store is probably not suitable for this site given design and site constraints, but even Lowe's has constructed at least one store in a horizontal mixed use configuration; in Charlotte, NC, there is a Lowe's providing rooftop parking which is buffered from a residential neighborhood by townhouses on two sides. Specialty Food For specialty food stores such as meat markets and produce markets, a configuration similar to Market Hall in the Rockridge neighborhood in North Oakland where shoppers can walk through multiple stores under one root, or instead with each store oriented more toward the sidewalk and street, should provide an appropriate scale of building development for this component. This type of use, along with some smaller personal service businesses, or other local- serving businesses, would also be supported by residents of any new housing developed on the North 40 site, enhancing the pedestrian orientation of the development. Although there is some risk that specialty food markets could cannibalize sales from the existing supermarkets, they would also enhance Los Gatos Boulevard's position as a grocery destination and thus may attract additional food shoppers to Los Gatos. Formula Retail The retail analysis indicated that while formula retailers constitute a small percentage of stores in the Downtown, they account for a significantly higher percentage of retail sales, especially in the apparel and home furnishings /appliances category. Given the buildable envelope of commercial space at the North 40 site, even if some larger general merchandise or appliance stores locate in the project along with some small specialty and local- serving businesses, there is the potential for considerably more retail space. As noted previously, the location at the intersection of two major opened a store in Emeryville, only a few minute's drive time from its Albany store. In Colma/Daly City, Target has stores even closer together, on opposite sides of the same highway interchange. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 1 I I of 150 09I3O Z I adud d$aluz)S )uaurdolaeaQ ssaulsng pue , pn)S iojm q ueld ogloadS .Clzog quoM umo)umo(I agl nl sazols 8ullslxa qum legmacuos )sual le aladwoo lou pinom Iuq) asn Ilelaz e pug of atglssoduu ,Cllenlzln aq pinoM 11 )eql aziaoaaz of )uulzoduu sl It `umo)umoQ aqI of fauluacuaidueoo oq ,Sllezouad pinom sasn luou ulelzalua pue ilelaz osoq) 3o lueui ollgM :smottO3 se aze lou Sulouuiuq slgl ul zaplsuoo o) szolaef da3i aql ;o autos -salllunlsoddo 3ulddogs jO ,ilapen zaleaz8 e apinozd of alge 5uioq of laodsaz qum pue umoy au)ua agl jo igauoq ayj o) aseq ssauisnq Itezano aq) �?uemoiS pue `soled sort Of sassoulsnq Supslxa agl uaamlaq aaueteq aq3 9uuaplsuoa ul pazaplsuoo oq of paou leg) sanssl mg13o amos sozimo)ldo onssl za)eaq) umolu,mop aqy sal ;iunuoddo ge;aa ;o AiewwnS -aaeds Sul)aacu zo s>ze 3uluuo3.iod teool e se aiquilene osle sl If )eql Bons Il osodindaz put, `umuoupne alRuls u of joeg )zanu03 o) ant, sueld )uql lzodaz 33e1s umoy pue `Auego digszaumo uu uaas Al uaaaz seq zaleagl umou moa agy -a)cs ot, glzot l agl )e sasn Bons zo1 lequa)od ay azoldxo pinogs szadotanap agl `sasn asagl pazanoa IOU suq azaq sisXpue aq) augAk sasn pa)eiaz- uopeazaaz zag)o zulluus io `zaluoo slzods zoopul uu `uiB Oulqunia 10oz e `63ile dullmoq u se Bons sanuan )uaunneua)ua Spure3 za2zei ioq)o alezodzoouc o) salllunlioddo aq ,Ceuz azagl `szaluagl omow of uoplppe ul •uxielzapun an slzojjo leuol)ouzoid- ssozo3l Xtieloadso `umolumoQ aql ul gulp of asoogo osle )g3iiw aus ot, glzol\I oql le szao3- za)eag) autos `salnouT JO ,C)aut,n iapeoxq B 2ulzajjo suaazos ieuoplppu uioz3 Igauaq )q�lui umoy acp )nq `zaluog) alnouc peUIS u sect SOIL so7 umolumoC[ •xalduzoa luounnevoluo /zalexp amour mou e .zo3 ieguolod oql sl smowalul luuuuojul Xax aq) ul pouOpuacu sum )nq yiodaz slq) ul pazoldxa uaaq Ion suq leg) asn iutozawmoo auo Ja ;uao ;uawu/eua ;u31saa ;eay1 alnopy seaze lei)uaplsaz wouz zoj zo33nq u se im pinoo `anoge soouaplsaz io oogjo gllm sdogs zallms zaglo zo poo3 Xgeioads Sulule)uoo sBu[pllnq se Bans `asn- paxluc zalleuis gllm `(Ialoq `B-a) sasn adzui zaq)o Cuu g)cAx ails agi do puo cpzou acp uo pazn3guoo aq pinogs sasn pe)az za2zei acp `ails zelnarazed sigl zo3 za)uao zamod uugingns e 3o oauezeadde acp OMO IOU soop pue umoy acp zo3 aluudozdde pauiaap sl uOisap oql legl Bons `pazn3guoa pue paleos sl azols u moq of su alglxali azoui oq o) szallelaz.U)J anpuaoul oql apinozd pings sanldez3ocuap 2uoals q)lm uoileupsap teum2oi e se ails ot, quoK acp ;o stpSuazls aqy 'IIe)az einuuoj allui.fzae cptM slacgslp Irulaz Injss000ns jo solducexo apinozd puepluo q)zoN ul onuand Iuoucpald zo anuany a3plz loog `uoiwutlsop $unnp pue fulddogs ani)aezlle uu apinozd III)s ppnoM uMO)umoQ agy •pa)edgcuc ,CpualoBlns aq )g3lm slouduu aq) `siz0333 SullazizeuU paleulpz000 uo alls Ob glzoM og13o zadoianap aq) gum OUDIzom se llaM se `uMOlumoQ sluana zaglo pue `s)a�Jzecu szauue; `slzaouoa alnpogas of $ucnulluoo al anpauozd sl `zanamog `umoy ogI,II -suolllsodaz li se sacols luapuadopul uo pasnaoj azoui uana aucoaaq Xialucullln Sew li `teadde umol lieuts sit puedxo pue uiulaz of uaaq suq snoo3 umolumoQ aql sy •sazols llu)az elnuuej Ieuopippe3o uuo3 agl a )Iul pinoo golgM `ilu)az 2umlos- uoc3az zo3 uoheool augzd e sl slgl legs saleOlpcu s iumaaz3 and elsewhere in Los Gatos. For example, Target stores often include a pharmacy, which could compete with existing drug stores in Town, and Best Buy sells a selection of Apple products. However, the four neighborhood centers would probably be relatively unaffected by region- serving uses at the North 40 site, since they are strongly oriented toward neighborhood convenience shopping. • The Downtown's unique character is based on the large variety of and mix of independent shops in smaller spaces creating a small -town atmosphere, with a limited number of formula retail businesses. However, the formula retail currently located in the Core accounts for a significant percentage of retail sales, and draws shoppers that may also patronize the independent stores. To the extent that new development at the North 40 could cause any formula retailers to relocate from Downtown, this could have impacts on remaining businesses there, and may require adjustments that could be less problematic if the change is more gradual. • The North 40 also has the potential to serve as a hospitality district serving nearby medical facilities, offices, and clinics bordering Los Gatos in San Jose. Neighborhood and convenience retail, along with lodging and meeting space, would be attractive to the area's robust medical community since it is within a short walk or drive across Los Gatos Boulevard. • If the North 40 is developed as mixed use, there will be synergies beneficial to all the uses. For example, local residences would benefit from retail that could accessed on foot rather than by automobile. Entertainment uses would benefit from nearby restaurants or shops, as would a hotel /conference center use. Office uses might allow for shared parking with retail. The strengths of the North 40 site as a regional destination with strong demographics should provide the incentive for retailers to be more flexible as to how a store is scaled and configured, such that the design is deemed appropriate for the Town and does not give the appearance of a suburban power center. For this particular site, the larger retail uses should be configured on the north end of the site with any other large users (e.g., hotel), with smaller mixed -use, such as buildings containing specialty food or other smaller shops with office or residences above, could act as a buffer for more residential areas. In summary, there is no "ideal world" solution that will perfectly meet all the various goals of the Los Gatos community — any commercial land use product comes with some level of both business risk and a need for adjustment as existing businesses adjust to accommodate and compete with new retail users. Change represents both risk and opportunity. Hopefully, the Specific Plan process will lead to thoughtful consideration of these issues as the planning and development process continues. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 113 of 150 091 JO bt I 35ud 68alealS 3aaudolanaQ ssoulsng pus ,Cpn1S laNaslnl uutd ag!oadS Xlaod tIvoN ,Cg aaleags sole,) so-1 agl jo asegatnd paltodaa luoaaa aqy 'gllm oloduoo pue aanpoadaa 01 outla ouo Ie pauueld s! 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Retail Strategy 1.4: Branding and Identify for Los Gatos Shopping Districts. The branding of the North 40 for any retail use should be approached from the idea that strong identities for all Los Gatos' shopping districts should be reinforced and branded to offer Los Gatos as a whole "package" of shopping and leisure activities, including nearby wineries. Branding and identity should be accomplished in part by well designed and consistently applied wayfinding and signage treatments that clearly identify where one is within the Town. For new shoppers coming into Los Gatos for retail at the North 40, the North 40 could serve as a "gateway" to the Town with information kiosks (both portable /seasonal and permanent). Retail Strategy 1.5: Improve Way Finding and Public Parking Signage. Some key informants reported that a perception of lack of parking presents a barrier to local residents patronizing Downtown merchants and businesses. Most residents visit Downtown by car and parking while adequate is sometimes be difficult to find or is not always in the most convenient locations. Installation of better directional signage or electronic signs with available spaces noted lots could help overcome this perception. Retail Strategy 1.6: Provide Shuttle or "Shared Bike" Program to Link North 40 and Downtown. By providing a shuttle connection and /or free bicycle rental, the North 40 and Downtown could be linked to promote easy movement between the two districts. Many cities in both the United States and Europe (such as Paris, Portland, and Prague) provide free, shared -use bicycles to encourage sustainable and healthy alternative transportation over short distances. Stations could be established at the North 40 and Downtown. Strategy 2: Promote New Retail at the North 40 to Provide Goods and Services that are Leaking from the Community and Generate More Sales Tax Revenue for the Town. To strengthen and diversify its sales tax base, the Town should consider promoting new formula retail at the North 40 site since the Town's own experience with formula retail Downtown has shown that just a few formula retailers can generate a large amount of sales tax revenue. The North 40 could offer a new and fresh shopping experience in contrast to some of the older facilities outside the Town in the RTA, thus potentially attracting new shoppers from outside the Town. Strategy 2.1: Avoid "Tax- shifting" from Relocation of Formula Retail Downtown to North 40. While some may disfavor formula retail Downtown, in order for the Town to realize a net fiscal gain, formula retailers Downtown should be encouraged to remain Downtown and not relocate to the North 40. This can be achieved through non- compete clauses in the Town's development agreement with the North 40 developer or through other legally appropriate mechanisms. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 115 of 150 09 13o 911 32ed ,C2abegS luouidolanaQ ssouisng pue 6pn)S IoNm n[ uald oL31edS �uod cllioN aql soled so7 Lit satl.Ladozd 8uilsixo za11lo glim olodmoo ,C[[etlualod pinom lnq a[O,Co ssaulsnq )uazm0 oy Lit palwaua2 puemap laam of ands mau 2ulppe ,Cq C101LIOAL11 s,umol aq1 puedxa pinom ,Cllunlxoddo still •sotugo pue suotln)l)sut le0tpam3o za)snlo )ueoglu&s e of Cltmlxwd s,alls ag13o 02eluenpe 21111el `suLZg uoddns pue `sqe[ `saaptnoLd x)tAaas leotpam,Slm[nowed `slueuol LUntpauL of Ileums zoj ,Cauedn000 )uBUa)l1[nuL io3 p0u2(sap aaeds y ao g sselD mau ppe oslB p[noo alts Ob glaobl aql `,Cto)uanut solecJ so7 aq1 o) aaeds ale[d soot{ sa2iel 2utppB o) uolltppe uI aoedg ;ueuejpInMI y ao 8 sse/3 MON 'XDIIBA )saM 3111 Lit satluadoad y sselD algeaedmoo aaglo IpIM aladmoo Cla}ltl Isouu pinom Ob quoN aq) le aaeds aogjo man `pealsul •sat)xadozd zallms pue Laplo jo pastsdmoo st jolt m aoS3o umoli:moC[ aq1 aouts umolumoCl aq1 gltm ,S[)ue0gtu2ts o)adiLLoo lou XpNq p[nom ob LpzoN 0111)B aaeds oagjo mou `saleld uoog za2se[ 2uua33o Cg aaeds ;o laa3 azenbs 000`001 JOAO 2111Noas slueua) 3o zaquunu aqI Lit aseazout )ueoglu2ts e uaoq seq a.Lagl I I OZ 3o sgluow xis Is ig aq) 2uunp legs uodw suug 3&njoaq pool •sauols aamli zo oml 2utmnsse °2utplmq xad laaj 3 jenbs 000`50 [ of 000`OS 10 zoog nd 000`5E of 000`SZ) soled xool[ a2.re[ 2ulploas slueual o1 poloftl aaeds oagjo y ssBlD mau of 31Ls aql jo uo.Mod e 2ugeoolle oq p[nom o{, Lpaop[ aql 1e Iuamdo[anap a0g3o aoJ Xjiunlzoddo auo saasn alBu;g ao oBae7 o; papBjel aoedg aoyjo y sse ;D MaN -s,Cem aAillsod IezaAas UI ,fzo]uaAUI 03UJo s,umol 01,11 a0uB11ua ue0 pue uoge0o[ ant)Oe.gle ue ss033o alts Ob glzobl DILL 'puemap aog3o ,mau [o 1aa3 omnbs 000` 161 01000`OL uaam)aq wn)deo p[no0 alts aql lBgl siso22ns oleunlso puemap Ienplsaa y a2uez loot axenbs 000`001 01000`SL ay ut aaeds 2uploos somedmoo alBpommoon On )Bill satuadoad ma3 Lptm s2utp[Inq D pue g sselo.[aplo ill Si ,GoluaAw s,umol aLl13o gonm `zanamoH •sLea,f [eLaAM lsed aq1 zano salez [eluat asBal LaL[2Iq pue sales ,C011e3eA zamol 2ululelutem Sq Seg q)noS pue eaiy 1ajjuw.Lapeozq aip pauuopodlno dllez0ua2 seq la)lzeuu a0gjo so1eD so-I all 1eg1 pale0tpul aaldeg0 uiauiss3ssv impvw aa33o agl saillunpoddo;uaLudolanaa 0011 10 •pzeAD[nog soled so7 ssoaoe poogaogq2tou ssautsnq pue [etluoptsau ,Cgzeau z3glo )nq a)Is aq) le sluaptsai mau ,Cluo lou poddns of o[, g1LoK og13e hulas 30112)1113eao0 pue poogLoggguau o23wno0ua p[nols umol aq.L 'ob LjpoN aql le yelaa aouatuanuoo pue pooglogqBiaN eBeanoou3 :E ABalea�S -sole,) sort optslno moil saaddogs ut 2uuq [pm ;Bill Relax elnuuo3 se Ilam se `aiols aouegdde ue `( „peg lal.iem„ `2•0) spoof �Ieloods se g0ns xtm s,umol 3111 luamaldmoo lllm 1eg1 sasn Ileloa lglmoads mau lgguopt of zadolanop ob gljoN oql Lgtm �pom pinogs sole,) so-1 -o{, glaoN le Ilelab AllepedS MaN a8eanoou3 :g 115aletIS -so)eld soog (lood azenbs 000`0£ zano ` 2 a) a1e[d zoo[[ ao2.ze[ 2utluuuod , q sauo231e0 luamanoudmt amoq ostpitupJauL [ezauo2 oql Lit sasn Itelaz mau gsgqelsa of ,Cltun7.Loddo )uauudo[anap ob glsoN all 2ulsn loplsuo0 pinogs soled so-[ 'aBe )lea7 saleS Bqi ;slx3 aan ;deD llim leq; saalle ;aa MaN aloiuoad :ti ABalealS benefit to the Town would be adding new state -of -the -art facilities to its office inventory, thereby offering a greater choice to businesses wishing to locate in Los Gatos. New Multitenant Office Space Packaged as Los Gatos' "Innovation Center" A third opportunity for the Town and North 40 developer to consider would be to establish an "innovation center" or "technology hub" that offers a variety of office and shared work spaces targeted to venture capital companies and start -up firms. These centers typically offer flexible space configurations from a single desk to space for 20 to 30 employees as well as flexible lease terms from month -to -month to a typical term of three -to -five years. These facilities are designed to promote collaboration and cross fertilization of ideas and technology among tenants with shared kitchens, lounges, and special events spaces. The revival of early -stage venture funding of new technology companies along with the large base of venture capital and technology professionals in Los Gatos and surrounding communities may provide a base of support for such a concept. Having onsite amenities such as a hotel, meeting space, and convenience retail would be cri tical to make this concept feasible. Many of these centers are sized between 5,000 and 30,000 square feet and thus would not preempt other office development at the North 40 site. A potential constraint for this opportunity, however, may be the North 40's distance from existing start -up clusters in Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and Mountain View. Summary of Office Opportunities Office development at the North 40 would be consistent with the Town's General Plan by providing a supportable use to complement retail and other commercial uses in the northern portion of the site. The General Plan guidelines calling for sustainable and "smart" development, pedestrian - oriented design, and amenities such as plazas and landmark features would enhance the marketability of new office development by giving the North 40 a strong brand and image to distinguish it from other properties in the Market Area. The Town has several office development opportunities that can be pursued by the North 40 developer. As seen with other planned and proposed office projects in the Market Area, speculative office investment may be difficult to finance without having pre - leased 50 percent or more of planned space. Lending requirements may then make provision of new Class B or A multitenant and `innovation center" more challenging to finance compared to office space for an identified credit -worthy single tenant requiring a large quantity of space. Hence, the ultimate feasibility of office space at the North 40 will depend to great extent upon the developer's capacity to finance new development and success at securing leasing commitments. Overall, new office development at the North 40 site will add new, highly functional space the Town's inventory, improving its ability to retain and attract business and bolstering the Town's overall economic prosperity. Office Strategy 1: Promote New Office Space to Expand Town Inventory. Los Gatos should develop language as part of the Specific Plan process that would promote the expansion of the Town's inventory of office space, specifically encouraging a mix of new office space at the North 40 site geared to providing large -place Class A office as well as new Class A or B space configured for multitenams. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 117 of 150 Jos I I aSed d3aluJIS puaiudolanaQ ssaulsng pue ,ipniS mIju i weld ogpaadS /Wod glzopl 'oily oled u! IM PueS poomasOH pue `AILmal l ut 1310H Al `olly olttd isttg ut uoseoS anod `asol ues umopumoQ u! iuouutuA Dill dluo ill!m laxzeuz ssouisnq sit jo azis Dill uaAlS sianpoad lalotl ,Cunxnl pueaq -otueu ,fq panaaszapun saeaddu ,ieg g1noS aql -,SIunoo aql jo sl-md Sutznple -ssol u! 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By associating the brand with Los Gatos' stylish reputation —as in, "The Ritz - Carlton Los Gatos" —such a hotel has a potential to become the go -to destination for many of Silicon Valley's most discriminating travelers. However, a potential limitation of the North 40 for a globally branded hotel is its location outside a major business hub such as downtown San Jose or Palo Alto, according to operators and hotel industry experts contacted by the North 40 developer. Alternatively, appealing to a regional boutique hotelier could present an additional opportunity. Joie de Vivre and Kimpton are both Bay Area -based operators that are looking to expand their presence in destination environments such as Los Gatos. While each of these companies operates a property within the Market Area —Joie de Vivre in West San Jose, and Kimpton in Cupertino— they have demonstrated a willingness and desire to find new opportunities for market share, even in locations where they already have a presence. With its marquee location and potential to appeal to executive -level travelers and recreationalists alike, the North 40 could represent just such an opportunity to these growing hospitality groups. Hotel Strategy 1: Develop Language in the Specific Plan that will Encourage /Permit a New High -end Hotel /Lodging Use at the North 40. The Town should consider a hotel use for the North 40 to expand the Town's inventory of high -end hotel properties and complete an overall amenity package at the North 40. Conference and Meeting Space Development Opportunities The Meeting Space Market Assessment indicated that the area directly surrounding the North 40 is underserved by both existing and proposed meeting hotels. Approximately 38 percent of the hotel meeting space in the Market Area is located in Los Gatos —twice as much as is located in either Campbell or Cupertino, the two next largest meeting hotel clusters (note that this balance will change when two new hotels in Cupertino come on- line). Los Gatos' existing supply of hotel meeting space is concentrated downtown. Interviews with key informants confirm that the majority of existing conference activity in Los Gatos takes place at the Toll House Hotel and Hotel Los Gatos. These facilities, however, are hampered by their size. As shown in Table 28 in the Meeting Space Market Assessment chapter, most of the meeting hotels in the Market Area are unable to accommodate more than 250 persons seated theater -style (all chairs), and, in fact, the average seated capacity is closer to 100. The Toll House Hotel and Hotel Los Gatos can seat a maximum of 180 and 150 guests, respectively. Representatives of the Los Gatos Chamber of Commerce confirm that there is a need for event space in Los Gatos that can hold more than 200 people. The existing day -use facilities, on the other hand, are distributed more evenly throughout the Market Area, and both the Jewish Community Center (JCC) in Los Gatos and the Camden Community Center in San Jose are located in close proximity to the North 40. 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Since a day conference center typically requires subsidy, the Town should consider incorporating a conference /meeting space use into a new hotel property. To meet the large meeting space gap in the Market Area, Los Gatos could consider requiring as has the City of Cupertino a space with a capacity for up to 400 to 500 as a condition of hotel use. The hotel would have to be sized over 150 to 200 rooms to support such a meeting space. Prioritizing Opportunities To assist the Town of Los Gatos with further evaluating and formulating a commercial development program for the North 40, BAE has prepared a matrix that summarizes findings by key decision - making criteria. This matrix can be found on the following two pages. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 121 of 150 m a w O w��!! O FA bTA 0 0 u Q cq b .b 6 7G x 0 O N bA m a 3 � w y a>'i .� � a> � � ti u �.' � •n o xi. U ha v� bA U N W W ... z W N N 0� a U O U Z C N aT O U Y N W rii .U. 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W N M N N N N N M N O W t0+1 M Oi Q c'i N O 0 M f9 M di N d3 f9 F9 m W M W 19 m� M (O W N r M N O Q V M1 o o h M m (V N OI O N W m (O E N O m V] M O r O N M N M1 K W O N P r n rw w m m m w w w» e N P O) M O m m V (D N O O N V m r (O M M m N mMNh m_ M 0 0 c6 ai d vi m r �,j O N P O N N M h 0 m (O o N h h 6] o N N r N n N Mw N Wp W M1 H3 ei t9 f9 W M 9 M m fD d� N W M_N M O 7 m w p rv�nc�i N m N m r N P O M b ci ri�oi mo � �» M»Nm Mm ww r'pn rw r w U m m v a ° V m a m m a m m o° rn m R a c v o o m N d o 2 0 - N y m y =m' min ¢C7 w0 K m a � N M O N N n ° U °c¢ �n m ° m N a m c a m a o m m am N m o H c m v is o m a� U w o m in c v ate. a> K tl) N _ R ' a o o 5 °o v n v m N�SGI ti UI ¢U W O � m ro N M Lo O m N (V N M M M N M m m m m N M n N wu ro m P 0 h M 0 a° o Qj /J O O O N a J O) O G C � c N � m n ii o Z °O > > OM N v E L V 0- m m 5 m m a n m R 6 L o E m m L R N ° n `O m a n m m o0 u°1i m � N � d c R pN U Y o v o N ry p m r Q n � R C_ o s am E N O v O O N T a c w m U o v D N ✓ R O R N � v N W Tr U L c�mRS TU 5 � S m E N X ` U O a m y l v R E E y m m o R � 3 to ' -_ E C p C¢ N R O q V oo O R o f W p a 0ZO n o.3 o n O a N 0 y c V m O y R a p a N c E ac ° u n m R L R o ou° O W O a> N c °- c y o v a U a E R m m '.,O v u 8 p L N G O O m T N C N N N N= R O N O m R .- ° o a a s a m `-0 ' W y d m o v a cc mm m y c m a m1m C n R N n J a u o c R w v u a o t ° Dam o O N m R K C m ° R R _m a ° N R T_m v UN w L w0 ¢ ¢ a o '�¢mS�a °D5 R P. w A. O w O z W N N O Q N C MM� Vi b Y N ON O W O W a f9 f9 f9 M � O M W 9 W 9 N P m Q Q N O N m r C � N 1fl W M N r P O � O N fq m o m m o O M P m N P N (O W m (O O� p f9 f9 f9 (A M M � o N � m M V N 1p W O N N yM1j M N N (O O N r V W N N � M lO O V m m m W N p Nf9 � fA Yi m c M W m C M m e»wm 0 N � V V N W N N N Vl (O M N m w m P m P P N � fn wwbi p N � N m W W m myy N P M N VJ N O <O m N M O 0 M f9 M di N Ni m a � N M O N N n ° U °c¢ �n m ° m N a m c a m a o m m am N m o H c m v is o m a� U w o m in c v ate. a> K tl) N _ R ' a o o 5 °o v n v m N�SGI ti UI ¢U W O � m ro N M Lo O m N (V N M M M N M m m m m N M n N wu ro m P 0 h M 0 a° o Qj /J O O O N a J O) O G C � c N � m n ii o Z °O > > OM N v E L V 0- m m 5 m m a n m R 6 L o E m m L R N ° n `O m a n m m o0 u°1i m � N � d c R pN U Y o v o N ry p m r Q n � R C_ o s am E N O v O O N T a c w m U o v D N ✓ R O R N � v N W Tr U L c�mRS TU 5 � S m E N X ` U O a m y l v R E E y m m o R � 3 to ' -_ E C p C¢ N R O q V oo O R o f W p a 0ZO n o.3 o n O a N 0 y c V m O y R a p a N c E ac ° u n m R L R o ou° O W O a> N c °- c y o v a U a E R m m '.,O v u 8 p L N G O O m T N C N N N N= R O N O m R .- ° o a a s a m `-0 ' W y d m o v a cc mm m y c m a m1m C n R N n J a u o c R w v u a o t ° Dam o O N m R K C m ° R R _m a ° N R T_m v UN w L w0 ¢ ¢ a o '�¢mS�a °D5 R P. w A. 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N p C N° 0 o R R -° n R ._ o � = M t�I(7U 0 C7�LL C C o @ @ J ° m o C7 a C J RO L O w o « a N O J N N @ O E N @ W w �- R W a U c @ R ° o O 4 � n N ry a U @ @ e R .0 L V O O 02 ° o o m c N E R E J _ J q C p^ N ° °- o a a Qx1 N N ip U n' c N N D a U o m o M u d N O O V M@ N 2 E m o r o a d R c M T E of oc @ o N U N = C M M O O O C C N N N N N O p E U 2 a `m o 0 0 0 n n @ N O N d R W M O O E R T O M N N LL O O N E N N @ C @ C R N @ Rn rO ry N N W O R C C @ U= W n o u u c lL N Q'LR. i- m Q m N m.o N U N Q U U 0 wy 4 O 9 OA N N O N Q N ti GQ b N ro d w O 0 N 0.. Appendix F: List of Key Informants Lisa Porria Manager, Administrative Services Samaritan Medical Center Jean Altman Manager, Guest Services & Government Relations Officer El Camino Hospital Ronee Nassi Executive Director Los Gatos Chamber of Commerce Dianne Anderson Chair of the Board Los Gatos Chamber of Commerce Sloan Mukai Proprietor The Wooden Horse Toy Store Freddy Howell Proprietor Los Gatos Birdwatcher Bob Bortfield Proprietor Vintages — Estate Sale Antiques Sharon Sterling Broker Grosvenor Properties: Trader Joe's Shopping Center (Not personally involved with North 40 project) Shahram Moussavi Broker Terranomics Properties: Old Town Center, Kings Court North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 141 of 150 09 I3o ZbI aged Xi2oj jS luouidopAo(I ssoucsng pue Xpn7S iolmN weld agioadS X7zod q),joN )luex3 lg2lu}l jnwmaN lepjautwoD 1fazeD 7g gsiauoD luaptsaad aain oIaaJS x31ed u iRW zsoM S£ `zruj e3ueS quoN OZI :satuadoad sacuzoueual zaxozg 2ungD sawul azoo umolumop ail; uz s2ulplmq snolaen `zaluoD 2uiddogS umoy moN `ajunbS O2NIFA sOlBD so7 `zaauaD OuiddogS so;eD so-I :s3piadozd lelazamucoD auiud pdpuud ueuad 2noCl Appendix G: Innovative Floor Plates for Large- Format Retailers Target I Chicago's Uptown neighborhood Target opened in Chicago's Uptown neighborhood in July 2009. The Wilson Yard development spans two blocks along North Broadway and includes a Target, a grocery store, smaller -scale retail, and two affordable rental apartment buildings. The Target site plan contains two floors of retail spanning 126,000 square feet. Parking is located underground. The Red line rail stops 0.2 miles from the store. The $151 million project involved eighteen financing sources and federal new market tax credits. Target also invested $33 million. Holsten Real Estate Development Corp. developed the project. North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 143 of 150 OS 13o bbl aStd Sila3mzlS 1uautdolanaQ ssouisng pore /tpn;s zaNxew ueid agjoads X7zo3 ip.aoN •3oaligozu Dip ST puuptzeyg `tpsaglag }o sloaligoad V +AW •dnoz[) 13auuag put "dggr `Dqf are szadolanap agy •uol3mlS uotup utoz3 sallui q•0 pa3m001 st ails agy •lle3az jo laa; azunbs 000'I fzana zo3 saoeds zno3 o3 aazg3 On soilta Sunlzed pasodozd agy •sazom zno3 zano ,Wn000 1(Im xoldutoo 1m3o3 aqy •lzmugeM anoqu sluautlzmdu 3o sapols zno3 aq osle lllm azagy aluld zoos aa3nao aadns azun6s 000`S8I pzepum3s zlagl uug3 zalltuts tlgmaap1suoo si golgm `zooU Pj ag3 uo Iaa3 o.tunbs 000`9ZI-000`9L ,idn000 llIm IzeutluM -saalle3az luool `Ilmuzs zo3 lauds llelaz3o Iaa3 azenbs 000`01 sntmluoa lanai aooU punozS agy Suhlzmd punoBiopun jo slanal 301g3 dole Sulpltnq ,Gaols -xis m sasmomotls nStsap aqy s30gs Sucltueld in Xilua.uno st 'MR IaaalS H pum ,sl It pa3maol ` aaols aup 'Sawa,( om3Ixau ;)q3 aano DC[ uoy5utgst3M in sazo3s mej uado oI Sutzedaid st peuguM DQ uo3 mgseM I Lreugum Horne Depot I New York City, Manhattan Home Depot first opened in New York City in 2004 and occupied the basement and ground floor level of two historic buildings. The architect united a pair of limestone buildings, and upgraded the 200 foot cast -iron facade. Horne Depot takes up 106,000 square feet. The floor plan includes a 2- story loft -style interior with escalators to the basement level. Above Home Depot is 500,000 square feet of office space. Whole Foods L&, Union Square I New York City, Manhattan Whole Foods opened in Union Square in New York City in 2005. It occupies 47,000 square feet within a 250,000 square -foot building. The store fronts a 3.5 -acre park, and is located within a mixed -use district that includes office, residents, students, and a mix of retail types. The store spans three stories. Groceries are located in the basement level, and prepared foods and checkout North Forty Specific Plan Market Study and Business Development Strategy Page 145 of 150 09 [3o9b[ aSud ,waaejS 1u0wdo[aeOQ sseuisng puu Xpn[s Iax .1uyq ue[d ogtoadS CI.10 j tpaoN -dots oalaw umolXa[uay oql wozs laa3 S8£ palu0o[ st oj!s agy '000`00011$ put 000`00£$ uOaMlaq p0oi.1d azaM sumiucwopuoo ally punoAJ;)pUn pap!nozd st OunPud puu `sxooU [ielaz all; anoge asu swniutucopuoo fanxn-I 'Jana[ 100.1Is le palenl s azu azo1S .1au[eluoD aq1 pue 6ng Isog put, `aoeds apex2 -mo[aq e sacdn000 a.1emp.1eH 30V 'SOOZ uc pauado go[gM `6a[uay le 0uij fITD p0[[eo luawdo[anap asn -paxiw e olin 3uip[tnq oq1 pauanuoo juauido[anaQ apispeo2[ ` .1ado[anap ally 's0661 3q1 ui pauopuuge ua0q puq Iegl Smppnq �[3ngoo2[ s.1eaS p[o uu 3o uoilulg ?qugaz uegm ue st sigy umol a[uay 'D(I uol uigsuM I a .1eMpzeH aoy a.1ols.1auieluoD ng Isag •uoilenou0a sit oluc uog[nu 9b$ Ind pue `£66[ ue Outp[wq oql ]qi�noq Isn.1y Xiluag opewon -spoo3 a[ogM anoge ![[uailaan paIauls `�?uip[mq oql ut slueu0l pula.1 zaglo a.1u (;s 000`9Z) MSQ puu `(1003 a .1unbs 000`Z6) Iuowasug s,aua[JA (Iooj a .1enbs 000`92) [Z .1ana .1od -Ind aql �JooJ .1ano Iugl smopuIM 30ze[ ttl?M `duTIUM sapino.1d Jana[ auLuEzzoui aq,[, •.1oo[3 punoa8 aql uo polunlcs a .1e s.1alunoo Lockwood Place I Baltimore Lockwood Place is a development that contains mixed -use office, retail, and parking located in downtown Baltimore by the Inner Harbor. The complex contains a multi -story office tower with 250,000 square feet of Class A office space. Adjacent to the office tower is a three -story shopping complex that covers 98,000 square feet. Best Buy (37,000 sf) and Filene's Basement (30,000 sf) are the anchor tenants, and there are a variety of smaller -scale restaurants. A 940 -space structured parking garage is located at the back of the building. The project was developed by David S. Brown Enterprises and A &R Development. The site is located within the downtown in an urban location, and has harbor views. 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It should be noted that these estimates should be considered as approximate, since the exact employment numbers for each store type are not available; instead, the published data group stores into an employment class size." However, the availability of SBOE and Economic Census data for the same general period (2007 or 2008) made refinements possible based on cross - checking the Zip Code - derived estimates against the other sources and making adjustments accordingly, so these the figures should reasonably estimate the order of magnitude of overall retail sales by category. These estimates have the advantage over estimates based on taxable data in that all retail sales are included, so no adjustment factors are necessary to get from SHOE data to total retail sales. The disadvantage of these estimates is that the data are not as current as what SBOE can provide. It is important to note the data are from 2008, when the impacts of the housing market meltdown and recession were not yet at their peak. The leakage analysis in this report adjusts these sales levels to take into account more current conditions, as shown in Appendix E. With respect to the taxable retail sales analysis based on State Board of Equalization data, it is extremely important to note that total taxable retail sales from the 2008 through 2010 Town data (e.g., Figure 8 and 11) are grouped somewhat differently, and thus cannot be compared to the 2000 through 2008 SBOE data. 50 The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) is a federally- directed system for classifying establishments by industry. m For example, one store size category in the Zip Code Business Patterns ranges from 25 to 49 employees; estimates are based on a central point in this range, since the exact number of employees is unknown. 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