09 Staff Report - Draft Expenditure PlanDATE:
TO:
FROM:
COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
January 30,2006
MAYOR AND TOWN COUNCa
DEBRA J.FIGONE,TOWN MANAGER
MEETING DATE:2/6/06
ITEM NO.9
SUBJECT:
DESCRIPTION:
VALLEY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY PRESENTATION ON DRAFT
EXPENDITURE PLAN
The Valley Transportation Authority (VT A)will provide a presentation on a Draft Revenue and
Expenditure Plan that assumes a new 30-year,quarter-cent sales tax.The VTA and Cupertino
Council member Dolly Sandoval,the West Valley cities VTA representative,are requesting that the
Town Council provide comments on the Draft Plan.
Based upon projections by the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy,VTA now.
expects that all Measure A projects can be completed should the sales tax measure pass.This
includes in the extension of the Vasona Light Rail Line to Los Gatos.Under the Draft Plan,the
extension would be completed by 2012.
The VTA will provide more details on the Expenditure Plan in their presentation.A copy of the
VTA Board Memorandum on the Plan is attached (Attachment 1)as well as their presentation slides
(Attachment 2).
RECOMMENDATION:
VTA is not requesting that Council endorse a sales tax measure at this time.VTA and the Town's
VTA representative are requesting that Council provide feedback on the Draft Plan assuming a
quarter-cent sales tax measure is approved by the voters.Staff recommends that any comments be
provided as a consensus of the Council.
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT:
Is not a project defined under CEQA and no further action is required.
~wQ~
PREPARED BY:Bud N.LoJ~~o~mity Development Director
Reviewed by:,Assistant Town Manager --+f=-_~own Attorney __Clerk Administrator
..§'c/Finance ~Community Development Revised:1/31/06 3:33 pm
Reformatted:5/30/02
l
I
PAGE 2
MAYORANDTOWNCOUNC~
SUBJECT:V ALLEY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY PRESENTATION ON DRAFT
EXPENDITURE PLAN
Feburary 6,2006
FISCAL IMPACT:
None
Attachments:
1.VTA Board Memorandum dated December 23,2005
2.VTA Presentation dated January 2006
Distribution:
Scott Haywood,VTA,3331 N.First Street,Bldg.B,San Jose,CA 95134-1937
Randy Tsuda,Assistant Community Development Director
N:\DEV\RANDY\Town CouncilWTA 2030 TC REPORT 04180S.wpd
Sl\NTI.t;lP.~I·
ViBHt:Y Trmtspori(r~~of!AuthijrHy
1.WO
__D_ec.:...:.'~,mber23,2005
N/A
February 2,2006
Date~
Conunittee Mee1ing Date:
Board Meeting Date:
ACTION X DISCUSSIONBOARDMEMORANDUM
TO:
THROUGH:
FRO"f~
Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority
Board of Directors
Michael T.Bums ?f.jJ 1.~
General Manager ..:_.~\.,
J'k ,.C II'--,),.-j.ac'·,.oms --"~
Chief Const.ruction Officer --
SUBJECT:Recommended VTA Quarter Cent Sales Tax Scenario
RECOMlv.IENDATrON~
Adopt the VTA 2000 ~easul'e A Transit Program with a Revenue and Expeudihlre Plan that
assumes a new 30-year,quarter-cent sales tax supporting the construction and operation of the
2000 Measure A Projects and some new projects and programs.
BACKGROl:ND:
In consIdering the recommended new 30--year,quarter-cent sale.c:;tax,the Board will recall its
adopted policy based upon the recommendation oftbe Ad Hoc Financial Stability Committee,
and the.Administration and Finance Comrl.1ittee.The VTA Financial Sta.bility Strategy,
presented by Ad-Hoc Committee co-chairs Don Gage and David Cortese,as appr.oved on March
4,.2004,established (among others)the following as a Mid-Tenn to Long-Tenn Goal:
•Work in partnership with community leaders to identify the most viahle new or expanded
revenu.e 50urce(s)for VIA.Continue publi.c input and data gathering il1 partnership with
community leaders and stakeholders to help define the revenue source(s)and timing most
aeceptable to the community.
The Boanl of Directors has entertained a series of worhhop meetings over the last two ymm
considering options for an expe.nditure plan that will meet the f1l1ancial needs ofVTA and the
2000 Measure A program ofprojec.:ts.Ai the June 2,2005,Board Meeting.slaffreviewed four
quarter-cen.t sales tax scenarios.Prior to the Jun.e 16th Board Meeti.ng,Board Member Ron
Gonzale.s outlined assumpticJns in a memorandum that resulted iII direction to staff to develop
a Q\l<uter-Cent Sales Tax.Sc·enalio based on tho::>e-assumptions.Throughoutthe summe·r,the
Attachment 1
Board and community stakeholders provided input,and the North County City Group and the
Silicon Valley Leadership Group (SVLG)both requested additional scenarios.The SVLG
requested a run that better reflected its polling conducted in March 2005.The polling tested
anew Pavement Management Program and increases to bus,rail and senior/disabled services.
The Board,at its workshop meeting on September 16,2005,reviewed three proposed
Quarter-Cent Sales Tax Scenarios and concluded that VTA is ready to go forward with a
Quarter-Cent sales tax that will sunset in 30 years.The Board further agreed that this
quarter-cent sales tax should include a Pavement Management Program,are-scheduling ofthe
BART project for completion no later than 2018,completion of Dumbarton Rail by 2011,and
flexibility in terms of capital balance amounts for the 2000 Measure A program.
The VTA Scenario was originally scheduled for Board adoption at the November 3rd meeting.
Based on comments from community interests and local jurisdictions,staff recognized the need
for additional evaluation to allow for more analysis and open dialogue on this program of
projects.Specifically,we evaluated potential ways to advance the airport people mover into
the Initial Program by 2018,while keeping the Pavement Management Program in place.
On December 1,2005,VTA presented a Modified VTA Scenario to the Board of Directors that
achieved the goal ofmoving the airport people mover into the Initial Program.At that time,the
City of San Jose also presented a series ofrecommended changes to the Modified VTA Scenario.
The Board of Directors was concerned that the VTA staff and the City of San Jose
recommendations had not been evaluated or reviewed through the committee process.As a
result,the Board deferred action until February 2006,giving itself,the VTA Advisory
Committees,and the County Board of Supervisors an opportunity to discuss and weigh VTA's
modified plan and the recommendations submitted by the City of San Jose.
DISCUSSION
Annual Update to Sales Tax Forecast:
As part of an annual proces s that started in 2002,the Center for Continuing Study of the
California Economy (CCSCE)prepared updated projections oftaxable sales for VTA,which
staff has been reviewing since the December 1st Board meeting.The revised proj ections,which
are independently derived,indicate an increase in proj ected sales tax revenues.These new
projections are critical to the Board's deliberations and appropriately,staff has prepared yet
another scenario for the Board to consider.
The immediate result ofusing the new sales tax data is that all Measure A projects can be
completed in the Initial Program,subj ect to a proposed quarter-cent sales tax passing in 2006.
The fact that these annual updates show an upward cycle in Silicon Valley economic activity
after a sustained downward cycle underscores the importance of an annual review of the 2000
Measure A Revenue and Expenditure Plan,thereby allowing the Board to evaluate and revise
priorities as conditions change.It also illustrates the dynamic nature of both the revenue and
cost elements ofthe Expenditure Plan.An annual review process has contributed to the
Page 2 of7
successful completion ofprojects in the 1996 Measure B Transportation Improvement Program
that,at one time,were not anticipated to be funded.
To remain consistent with previous expenditure plans submitted for Board consideration,VTA
has used the midpoint ofCCSCE's conservative and moderate levels of projections.The
projections for the Recommended VTA Scenario include FY 2006 and FY 2007 adopted
budgeted amounts for sales tax revenue,followed by annual growth rates determined from
CCSCE's latest projections through 2015.Beyond 2015,VTA has continued to use a 4.8%
arumal growth rate,which is consistent with VTA's historical growth,with adjustments for
abnormally large increases and decreases.The projections oftaxable sales/are based on:
•Jobgrowth
•Population growth
•Personal income growth
•Retail spending as a share of personal income
•Non-retail spending per job
The average annual grovvfu rate for taxable sales in the current forecast has increased from an
average annual growth rate of 4.8%to 5.8%between FY 2008 and FY 2015.The reason for the
increase is due to several key factors.According to CCSCE:(a)commuting from outside the
county has fallen,which increases the number ofresidents contributing to taxable sales within
the county;(b)average earnings per job continue to reflectincreases;and (c)there is a slight
increase in projections for the percentage of personal income that will be spent on taxable sales.
The following table illustrates the change in sales tax revenue growth rates using the midpoint
ofCCSCE's previous 2004 projections (through 20101)and CCSCE's new 2005 projections
(through 2015 1).
Change in Midpoint Projected Growth Rates
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016-2036 1
2004
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
2005
5.7%
5.7%
5.8%
5.8%
5.8%
5.9%
5.9%
6.0%
4.8%
Change
0.8%
0.7%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
0%
The updated forecast of sales tax revenues increases 2000 Measure A sales tax projections by
$700 million over the life ofthe program.However,the updated projections also affect VTA's
1 Beyond the end date of CCSCE's projections (2010 in 2004 and 2015 in 2005),VTA utilized 4.8%as the
annual growth rate,based on historical growth,and adjusted for abnormally large increases and
decreases.
Page 3 of7
existing half-cent sales tax,VTA's Transportation Development Act (fDA)funds and the
projections related to the proposed new quarter-cent sales tax.Taking into consideration these
four sources of funds,there is an increase of over $2 billion,which has resulted in a significant
change to the proposed expenditure plan.\Vhile these new projections are auspicious,it is
important to note that the expenditure plan would have been revised downward if the new
projections were below the previously assumed 2004 levels.
Summary ofthe Projects and Timelines in the Recommended VTA Scenario:
In using the new sales tax forecast from the CCSCE,many ofthe suggestions presented by the
City of San Jose for the VTA Expenditure Plan on December 1,2005,can be accommodated.
The following is a brief staffresponse to the seven recommendations presented by the City of
San Jose.
1.Accelerate the construction schedule of BART before 2018 but no sooner than 2015 by
making it the first funding priority if and when:a)Measure A and/or revenues from any
2006 tax measure exceed projections;b)new revenue sources are identified;or c)there are
Measure A project cost savings.
In the Recommended ITA Scenario,the BART to Silicon Valley project is assumed to be
completed in December 2016,which is the current optimum schedule for final design and
construction.
2.Move the people mover into the initial program regardless ofwhen it may be constructed.
In the Recommended ITA Scenario,the people mover is in the Initial Program and is
asStlmed to be completed by 2018 without City ofSan Jose assistance injinancing.There is
a significant amount ofwork that still needs to be done prior to afinal decision on the people
mover technology and routing.This,too,will be considered during the annual reviews ofthe
Expenditure Plan.
3.After the public review processes have been completed,amend the expenditure plan to
include the fully funded preferred transit mode for the Alum Rock-Santa Clara corridor in the
initial program with a concurrent commitment to construct the proj ect consistent with the
construction schedule for BART.
IfSingle Car Light Rail is selected as the preferred mode and assuming a completion date
0/2021,this project can now be accommodated in the Initial Progrcon using the new revenue
assumptions.
4.Commit to complete the construction ofthe Capitol Light Rail to Eastridge project by 2012.
Capitol Expressway LightRailproject to Eastridge can now be completed by December
2012 and Light Rail/rom Eastridge to Nieman by 2017.
Page 4 of7
5.Retain funding for the Caltrain electrification project and re-allocate funding to other
Measure A projects throughout the region that are ready for construction -except BART -if
San Francisco and San Mateo counties have not secured their shares by 2016.
Staffviews this as a Boardpolicy issue.However,withanrrual updates to the Reverrue and
Expenditure Plan,it appears unnecessaryfor the Board to adopt a 2016 deadline at this
time.The Recommended VTA Scenario completes the initial phase ofCaltrain
Improvements/Electrification by 2018 and restores the 10%budget reduction contemplated
in the previous scenario.The previously deferred Caltrain Electrificationfrom Tamien to
Gilroy is also inchJded in the Initial Program by 2018.
6.Support the VTA proposal for an annual review of the Expenditure Plan to allow flexibility
to strategically respond to changing circumstances,needs and priorities.
This is consistent with staff's recommendation.
7.Develop a "reward policy"for local agencies that use local and/or private development funds
to implement regional transportation projects and thereby granting priority for such agencies
for other regional funding allocations.
Staffis supportive ofthis idea in concept.It is recommended that VTA staffworkwith the
Technical Advisory Committee to develop a policy for fUrther consideration by the Board.
A summary of the capital and operating program elements of the Recommended VTA Scenario
follows:
o A new 30-year,quarter-cent sales tax
o Maintains VTA's operating reserves at 15%for 30 years
o All projects are included in the Initial Program and the ending balance is $537 million
o No deferred projects in the Completion Program
o Provides operating assistance at 18.457%on annual 2000 Measure A sales tax revenue to
fund existing VTA bus,rail and paratransit service
o Estimates total net bond proceeds required for the program at $6.1 billion
o Completes BART by December 2016
o Phases in BART revenue service and the purchase of BART vehicles in order to improve
cash flow and funding requirements.This phased service would start with 15-minute
peakheadways from 2016 to 2025 at a 16%savings to the net operating subsidy.This
operating plan is preliminaryand will require the review of BART and may require
adjustments for new ridership forecasts
o Provides for an initial car order of 119 BART vehicles,with a second procurement of 47
vehicles by 2030 when 6-minute peak headways would begin
o Includes $913 million ($YOE or $450 million in $2005)in additional cost for BART
vehicles,parking impacts and escalation associated with the new ridership forecast for
year 2030
o Provides $2.7 billion in BART to Silicon Valley operating subsidy through 2037
o Completes Capitol Expressway Light Rail to Eastridge by December 2012
o Completes Capitol Expressway Light Rail to Nieman by 2021
Page 5 of7
o Accommodates Single Car Light Rail on Santa Clara/Alum Rock by 2021,if that mode
is eventually selected as the preferred alternative
o Completes the initial phase of Caltrain Improvements/E1ectrification by 2018 and
restores the 10%budget reduction contemplated in the previous scenario
o Completes Caltrain Improvements/E1ectrification from Tamien to Gilroy by 2018
o Provides for Caltrain Service Improvements in Santa Clara County
o Provides for South County Improvements,and 8.4 miles of double tracking by 2010
o Completes Dumbarton Rail by 2011
o Provides for ACE Upgrades between 2014 and 2025
o Extends light rail to Vasona Junction by June 2012
o Initiates Bus Rapid Transit Projects on Line 22,Monterey Road and Stevens Creek
Boulevard by 2011
o Initiates a Bus Rapid Transit Project in Sunnyvale/Cupertino by 2021
o Completes the Mineta San Jose Airport People Mover as a direct connection from the
Santa Clara BART station to a central point in the Airport Terminal by 2018.City ofSan
Jose financing is not required.However,the City will need to accommodate the future
people mover connection in its current airport expansion plans
o Zero Emission Bus Program includes 80%federal funding and 20%VTA other funding
o Adds $717 million for a program oflocal streets,county expressways,and bicycle and
pedestrian path improvement proj ects over 30 years
o Provides for Senior/Disabled Programs from 2008 to 2036 at an estimated cost of$98
million
o Provides for a gradual VTA service increase of 12.4 %by 2015,then gradual increases to
24%by 2020 for an estimated cost of$731 million over 30 years
o Estimates an annual operating deficit of$75 million in 2038,with Measure A expiririg
in 2036 and a potential30-year,quarter-cent sales tax expiring in 2037.This scenario
will require a renewal of a tax during the 2036 -2038 timeframe.
The previous VTA scenario for the Measure A Capital Program is shown in Table 1 and is
compared to the recommended scenario.A more detailed analysis of revenues and expenditures
for the recommended 2000 Measure A Capital Investment Program is included in Attachment 1.
A comparison ofVTNs Operating Budgetin FY 2038 is shown in Table 2.
Table 1.
Comparison of VTA Scenarios for 2000 Measure A Capital Program
Previous Scenario Recommendation
(Year ofExpenditure $(Year ofExpenditure $
in millions)in millions)
Revenues $20,658 $22,051
Expenditures 20,564 21,513
Initial Program Ending Balance $94 $538
Completion Program Estimates $1,279 NfA
Table 2.
Page 60f7
Comparison ofVTA Scenarios on VTA's FY 2038 Operating Budget
Fiscal Year 2038 Previous Scenario Recommendation
($in Millions)
Operating Revenues $1,206 $1,285
Operating Expenses 1,355 1,360
Surplus (Deficit)($149)($75)
Beginning Reserve $263 $352
Ending Reserve $79 $241
ALTERNATIVES:
The Board can modify the Recommended VTA Scenario or choose to take no action on this
recommendation.
FISCAL IMPACT:
The Recommended VTA Scenario maintains Operating Reserves at the Board adopted policy of
15%.TIris scenario has a positive ending balance of$538 million suQiect to a new quarter-cent
sales tax being passed in November 2006.If a new sales tax is not placed on the November 2006
ballot.,or ifit were to fail to pass by a supermajority ofvoters in Santa Clara County,it will be
necessary to prepare a revised 2000 Measure A Revenue and Expenditure Plan that would have
substantially less funding available for proj ects.
ATIACHMENT 1:Recommended VTA Scenario-December 2005 in Year ofExpenditure $
ATTACHMENT 2:Recommended VTA Scenario-December 2005 in 2003 $
ATTACH:MENT 3:Revenue Sources
ATIACHNJENT 4:Recommended VTA Scenario-Detailed 30-Year Capital &Operating Spreadsheets
Page 7 of7
___________________________________________________-1
VTA 2000 Measure A Transit Program
RECOMMENDED VTA SCENARIO -DECEMBER 2005
Year of Expenditure $'s
Attachment #1
Escalated Costs In YOE $l(1000
Completion Initial Completion
Program:Program Program
Measure A Initial Decision Scheduled Scheduled
Project Name Program Other Total Program Pending Finish Finish Notes
Total Revenues $22,050.847
Line 11 Operating Assistance @ 16.457%$1.953,171 $$1,953,171 $1,953,171
Line 12 Bond payment &Costs $7,447,203 $$7,447,203 $7 A47,203
Line 13a BART-SVRTw/lnifial Car Purchase (Dec 2016)$3,516,566 $1,545,652 $5,062,436 $5.062,436 2016
Line 13b BART-SVRT Supplemental Car Purchase $261.154 $$261.154 $261,154 2016
Line 13c BART-SVRT Additional Vehicles &Parking by 2030 $640,039 $$640,039 $640.039 2030
Line 14a DTEV -LRTTo Eastridge $334,257 $$334,257 $334257 2012
Line 14b&c DTEV -Santa Clara/Alum Rock Corridor $506,351 $$506,351 $506,351 2021 1
Line 15 DTEV -LRT Eastridge to Nieman $165,455 $$165,455 $165A55 2017
Line 16 caltrain Service Upgrades (VTA Share)$337,024 $37,527 $374,551 $374.551 2010 &2036
Line 17 caltrain South County $65,943 $72,526 $156,470 $156A70 2010 &2027
Line 16a&b caltrain Improvements /Elec trification $366,016 $655,059 $1.021.075 $1.021.075 2016
Line 19 Dumbarton Rail $44,000 $255,709 $299,709 $299,709 2011
Line 20 ACE Upgrade $33,306 $$33,306 $33,306 2014 &2025
Line 21 New Rail CorridolS Study $1,300 $$1,300 $1,300 2006
Line 22 LRT Extension to Vasona Junction $106,076 $$106,076 $106.()76 2012
Line 23 BRT:Line 22,Monterey,Stevens Creek $41.266 $21.270 $62,557 $62,557 2011
Line 24 BRT:sunnyvaie/Cupertino $130,100 $$130,100 $130,100 2021
Line 25a&b Mineta San Jose Airport People Mover $364,661 $279,641 $664,522 $664.522 2016
Line 26 Palo Alto Intermodal Center $97,600 $292,950 $390,549 $390,549 2025
Line 27 Highway 17 BusS ervic e Improveme nts $2,335 $$2,335 $2,335 2009
Line 26 Zero Emission Buses (ZEBs &Facilities)$$131.740 $131.740 $131,740 2020 &2035
Line 29 ZEB Demonstration Program $6.0 19 $12,431 $16,450 $16,450 2007
Line 30 Pavement Mngmnl,county Expressways &Bike/Fed $717,579 $$717,579 $717.579 2036
Line 31 Increase Service From 12A%to 24%$731.317 $$731.317 $731,317 2020
Line 32 Increase Senior/Disabled Programs $97,652 $$97,652 $97,652 2036
Total Expenditures $18,208,&53 $3,304,70&$21,513,358 $21,513,358 $
Initial Program Ending Balance =$~===53=7:!,,4=8=9=
Noles:1.A decision on the transit mode for the Santa Clara/Alum Rock Corridor has hOt yet been made,pending completion of the environmental process and adoption of a preferred alternative_
2000 Measure A YO E Do liars Summa ry
VTA 2000 Measure A Transit Program
RECOMMENDED VTA SCENARIO -DECEMBER 2005
$'s 2003
Attachment #2
Costs In $2003 x 1000
Completion Initial Completion
Program:Program Program
Measure A Initial Decision Scheduled Scheduled
Project Name Program Other Total Program Pending Finish Finish Notes
Total Revenues $12,976,602
Line 11 Operating Assistance @ 16.457%$9717,aJ1 $-$9717,501 $9717,aJ1
Line 12 Bond Payment &Costs $3,795,707 $-$3,795,707 $3,795,707
Line 130 BA RT -SVRT w /Initial C or Purchase (Dec 2016)$2,676,440 $1,178,000 $3,855,240 $3,855,240 2016
Line 13b BART-SVRT Supplemental Car Purchcse $182,765 $-$162,765 $182,765 2016
Line 13c BART-SVRT Additional Vehicles &Parking by 203C $379,888 $-$379,888 $379,888 2030
Line 140 DTEV -LRTT 0 Ecstridg e $269,751 $-$269,751 $269,751 2012
Line 14b&c DTEV -Santa Clara/Alum Rock Corridor $296,700 $-$296,700 $296,700 2021 1
Line 15 DTEV -LRT Ea>tridge to Nieman $115,000 $-$115,000 $115,000 2017
Line 16 Caltrain Service L1pgrades (VTA Share)$155,295 $15,705 $171,000 $171,000 2010 &2036
Line 17 Caltrain South Counly $61,184 $38,816 $100,000 $100,000 2010 &2027
Line 16a&b Caltrain Improvements/Electrification $233,000 $417.000 $650,000 $650,000 2018
Line 19 Dumbarton Rail $35,364 $207A22 $242.766 $242,786 2011
Line 20 ACE Upgrade $22,000 $-$22,000 $22,000 2014 &2025
Line 21 New Rail Corridors Study $1,241 $-$1,241 $1,241 2006
Line 22 LRT Extension to Va>ona Junction $83,000 $-$83,000 $83,000 2012
Line 23 BRT:Line 22,Monterey,Stevens Creek $34,256 $17,595 $51,851 $51,851 2011
Line 24 BRT:Sunnyvale/Cupertino $75,000 $-$75,000 $75,000 2021
Line 25a&b Mlneta San Jos e Airport People Mover $247,865 $180.090 $427,955 $427,955 2018
Line 26 Palo Alto Intermodal Center $49,9716 $150.004 $200,000 $200,000 2025
Line 27 Highway 17 Bus Service Improvements $2,000 $-$2,000 $2,000 2009
Line 28 Zero Emission Buses (ZEBs &Facilities)$-$65,700 $65,700 $65,700 2020 &2035
Line 29 ZEB Demonstration Program $5,533 $12A31 $17,964 $17,964 2007
Line 30 Pavement Mngmnt,Counly Expressways &Bike/Ped $370,765 $-$370,765 $370,765 2036
Line 31 Increa>e Service From 12.4%to 24%$333,716 $-$333,716 $333,716 2020
Line 32 Increcse Senior/Disabled Programs $50,456 $-$50,456 $50,456 2036
Total Expendnures $10,476,422 $2,283,563 $12,759,985 $12,759,985 $
Initial Program Ending Balance =$~====2=1~6,=61=7=
Notes:1.A decision on the transit mode for the Santa Clara/Alum Rock Corridor has not yet been made,pending completion ofthe environmental process and adoption of a prefen-ed
alternative.
$2003 Summary Run #148.xls
Attachment #3 -Revenue Sources
Revenue Sources For Measure A Program
eState
U Federal New
Starts
1:12000 Measure
A 1/2-cent
Sales Tax
Revenue Sources for Measure A Program
2000 Measure A 1/2-cent Sales Tax
Federal New Starts
State
Net Bond Proceeds
Potential New 1/4 Cent Sales Tax Allocated to Projects
Other VTA Revenue Sources
Oth er Proj ect Partn ers
Other
Total Revenues
Projected Allocation of Potential New 1/4 Cent Sales Tax
R Net Bond
Proceeds
~Potential New
1/4 Cent Sales
Tax
Partners
[)]Other
$10,582,278
$750,000
$795,852
$6,117,048
$1,713,720
$311,089
$1,746,422
$34,438
$22,050,847
BART Subsidy $
Interest Expense/Cost of Issue -VTA Bonds For Measure A $
Operating Portion -1/4 Cent Sales Tax
Potential New Projects
Pavement Mangement,County Expressways,Bike/Ped Paths $
Increase Service From 12%to 24%$
Senior/Disabled Programs $
BRT:Sunnyvale/Cupertino $
Funding For Measure A Projects $
Measure A Portion -1/4 Cent Sales Tax
2,665,145
1,171,903
717,579
731,317
97,652
130,100
37,073
$3,837,048
$1,713,720
$5,550,769
A ttac hm ent 4
(DoThrsm hfu.cu5;md;.eSl:ahted.mdexpn$edin~~of
nce4t~rrlhn.wss ctretwi;er0t2d.)
VTA 2000 MEA&JRE A PROGRAM
RECOMMENDED VTA SCENARIO -DECEMBER 2005
Be~Balm::e 0 {O}136$(ll m.ojj 3.108 5li/l7 Ja3.J:ll 1O!.(ll5 J.51ll n,4901 IJ5l 11.60l oI.oJI 1.i'll8 15.)58 30.130
RE\~
J.b~"""A la,,,,,-SoI<,Tox (lOOI Midoohtl 5.104.157 S IOJal.J7B :Y.l~1>5.00 ~1.%9 l7oI.393 Ja4.l31 195.1)5 lO6.5E lJa.672 )31.6l5 l1S.139 '2SlJJ}7 )59.309 lal.101
J.TCRP 507.428 $:6113.>57 Ill.9aB 8.m 11$31 60.000 60.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 00.000 65.000 65.000 33.551
3.Fedml Thw SWts:500.151 s 150.000 ll6 1911l 60mo 60.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 00.000 00.000 00.000 00.000 61.i'll6
oI._oIlSTJP 1ll.l101 S 117.la5 11.573 18,j3:J 19.676 '2o.e51 D.m EJOI >1.971
5.2002 !bteIXJCBIJOO4IJOOSBordl'rocud;1/P.ll3 S 171.018 8l.6/<i l~.11ll 110900
6.Net.Addl:MeMl.mABmd::'").101.338 S 3.616.000 331l.O00 510.000 100.000 3W.oOO 3~.ooO Eo.OOO
1.NetNowVTAB_0'1.119.1lS3 s 1.003.000 150.000 l~.oOO 3lO.oo0 115.,000 l15.000
1A NEW:Shat·_tirnru:m.1301.609 S DoI.OOO )l.000 )3.000 E.ooO
8.VTA..Q1he:r~iIncb.msnewll4-cen1'Thx Cll 1.101J.939 S lJllI.009 l.l2J 75.i'll7 15.111 86.101 86.311 96$10 1(ll918 101983 m.m lIOM6 61.1Bl 13.lO3
BAC'tM"pi\It:n!rS 1,(lll.33l S l.llMll ).061 l.719 5.ns 18,863 5l.OOS 5l.971 IIMlI J.915 l.o44 8.000 30.521 183.6ll 169.~1 lal.W'
9.Oft>erF\nd£11!lB9 S lil.l1l 3.l61 8JI5 1911 1~(;15
IO.lrtm""""""'on.lo.B>l1I5Y.)10.101 s 16.)55 911 959 i&CO"
#T~tiJJ;.~~~'&Z~~10~~3~~~~T~"v~':~~~Z1 i$Wi2fos!lu?)~-"~~~-101l.~_ii174§-J'f~Y1f"i"@&~~9$im$_.oWjll"~j[i.0M$."Ji5g:~1@!I!&;f$'&t$W}~~il!lE$
INlTLU rRO GRAhl-BXrIllIJJlTlIIlE'
11.Cb"""'Mi;tmc,1Ol Ja.15:W.997S21 s 1953.l1J s 1.953.111 S M/P la$15 30M8 3l.Ja8 31.010 30.011 3il.lJa 1O,30l Il.151 15.301 11.15l 19.106 5l.051
12.BcndP~'i!D.ent&:Corts:(4'3.195.101 S 1.441.lO3 S 1.447.lO3 S 105.111 ~.I61 D.ooo 39.001 35.m 35.6l1 35.5l8 BJ.7al 91l.905 119,lOl 1/P.693 IIll.i'll1 )ll,S/9 lO6.366 Dl.Jal
13\.B.ART·SVRTwIIniiU CM'I\m:h\se DecJ016 S 3.865.>10 S S"'l.138 S 3,516.586 S 1.5I5$5l lOo,l11 15$00 101$51 95,54a l7.7S8 101.657 306.735 106.000 >5!.l19 781$0 916,372 8l1.144 Sla.l91 l)5$11 39.105
l];).BART·SVRT S\D'D1m.eml CM'I\rcmse S IIll.765 S )51.151 S )51.151 S 3l.OIO 49.763 51,505 53.308 55.3lS 19,243
13:.BART·SVRT Adilimll Vehicl!s &~tlgl1j:;JJ30 S 319!lB8 S &lo.al9 S &lo.al9 S
l~.DTEV'·LRTTo'li1l~S )/P.751 S 331.l51 S 331.l51 S 3.l61 M53 6.l31 13.113 1.761 15.001 Il.DI 37.(IJ9 1Ol.600 9l.l65 11.703
II<.DTEV·SCIARS_C>rL""'1WI S )W.100 S ~il.3S1 S ~il.3S1 S 3;I15 13,Wl 6MSI
15.DTEV'·CELR :E1IstricketoNi!mm S 115.000 S ~5.155 S ~5.155 S 10.1la )5JIO 36.119 IS!lBO 38.006 7.100
16.C>!nhSorut,Unmdo,(VTASlw'e1 S m.ooo s m.551 s 331.001 s 37SlI 10.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000
11.C>!nhSotthComw s 100.000 S 15Ml0 s 85.913 S ll.5la ).000 1.100 9.100 10.000 15.000 5.000 MIS 13.916
1&.CUrmIm.PmIlI\t$IEl!.ctrficmm:SFtoTmim S 516.600 S llSil.6I6 s lO3,jjl S 655.0:D O,3JJ 131.199 440.199 11I.33'
18:1.C~Jm.trvmIt5IEh1ctrifi:WnI:Tmi!nto Gil:rtr:7 S lal.100 S ~l.ll9 S ~l.ll9 S l.3l9 >l93l 83.l1l 51.ID6
19.I:um.'OOrtm Rail S lll.186 S ll9.109 S 11.000 S l55.109 Hl1 3,lW 6.ns 11.191 15./Pl 63.010 ~I.llll
lO.ACE tb=de S D.ooO S 33.308 S 33,308 S 10.000 1.000 l.oOO IPOO
)J.N>w IWI COIIilin S<ui'>'S 1.l!1 S 1.300 S 1.300 S 8~4~
:rJ.LRT Ekt.en!:i:lnto \i'MIDlJmcticn S 83.000 S 106.016 S 106.016 S 1.5lJ 16.Jal 51,3>1 31.019
)3.BRT:Lno D.MOttelW$lt....enol<S 51.861 S 6l.551 S IJ.la8 S )!.l10 1.130 1.000 15;155 lil.6JS l5,9:Y
ll.BRT:Sumwo>lCrnutiro S 15.000 S 130.100 S 130.100 S
)5:l.:MiWhSmJet>tAi"OatPtonlel\to1er·lln5:e 1 t S S S
)i:l.I\tnnSmJose.AiroortPtcol!l\fover·:Il\.a5lil)S 1l79SS S /<i1.5ll S 381.aBI S l19.611 5.793 381119 JB3,Ol3 llo.138 116.aB9
)6.!lab.Alto lramnodll Centl!r S lOO.ooO s 390.519 S 91.0l0 S lll.9~l5 25
)7.~17BusSerriceJm.prwem.erts S ).000 S l.33S S l.33S S 1,151 I.JaI
)8.Zero EI:n.:issicnlm>es ZEB's &Rullis S 65.700 $:131.110 S S 131.,740 3,931 J,900 J,97S lP44 5.6ll 5.110 0.011 5.111 il.(ll3
29.=_""""",,,1>0_S 115\51 S IMSO S 6.019 S 1l.131 3J00 IJIO 1,500 IJOO 1,3S0
30.!IooIILb .~.~"",,,,&BI,,,l'ed S 310.765 S 717.579 S 717.579 S 11.100 15,173 15.101 16.151 16$/P 17.411 18.0:<11 Ja.6Sl 19;357 19,000 ::10.679
31.Irm.~e SUl1i:e From.rJ.W.to :J4Y.tlO20l S 333.716 S 731.317 S 731.311 S 80 1.673 S.oE 5.6i'll 9.llO 10.601 11.915 16.056
3).Irm.ilSe SenmlDisllhled~s Is ~.IS6 S ~s !l.055 l.131 i l.lOO ~2119 (iJmI~~~~"''W\\9.~!!iil~~1ilU¥$.Mj!;¥i:ff.iMM"ifJ!;~ff .
RevemesLessE);lerdiu:es $tOj 136$(ll {!5,751:i {111.951:,IBYt9 (~2.(I:a;(9',hJ1)('H;';'"1i:;)14,e6::J
CUJl1ilsfu'eEn&gB:ilanl:6"A~fttrOftLl!l"h,[~AJ:rc1w I ('?136,8(0 121,058 3,100 &,OO?IB3,122:ro~105 ~568 41,494 ~551 11,0(,(1 -1,691 1/?1l8 15,2>8 3ql3O 2qOJ?I
(l)Netl:ordtroceeds h~tDth!::JOO3f.l104I)J05 Bends.
(J)Netl:ordp-oceedssecm:dby&JnyUllefrom.VfA's 19161f).-certs~U1XmdIcr ml1SNll.eduwsUsUIXeffectire FYf11.
(3)VfA.,O1herFurrlDgntnsens Wltimllftndsm.ade lI.Va:iJAblefrom.vrRsIrO~ctedsw:plu;esb1sedm.1hem.iqIoirtsUstzIX gro;vIhprojectimspb;flI\l1SNll.ednew 1A·ceItsusiaXeffectil'e FYrJl.
(4 )TeIID.:.A1lM.etlSlmi:A&btm.tlt1lI\!;sinXl36.whmfrtt»c 9.tnSets.1rI1.erest~@5D"1•.
Recommendad \ITA Scemrio Run H14B'xls
~-'-~~-~"'-'~-~--~'-'--"------
Attachment 4 VTA 2000 MEASURE A PROGRAM
(DoThrs:iU't :h1ho.1sand;.esc~d.;mdexpn!»edfn~;u-o!
RECOMMENDED VTA SCENARIO -DECEMBER 2005nce~rdhn.,"'111$$cthmW:e~d.)
~691 65.,333 14.161 l;lQl 9~1l8 >1~Ql 81.451 179~51 313,636 484.00
5.404.451 ~10Sll118 ?JJ9,531 3:l4~4O 339~4,355.115 m~14 300,316 408~19 4JIl.343 448,689 41MOI 491311 515.712 54O~CIl 565,8S8 59<.141 6l~003 481.791
501.4,8 ~618,551
500.151 ~15~000
1ll~14 ~141.>15
469~3 ~414.Gl8
(I)J.407.338 S MI6,OOO I3MOO lOO~OO m~oo 163.000 JJ~OOO 9MOO
'"1.119.853 ~1.003,000 185,000 DMOO 160.000 O~OOO
134PJ9 ~:D4,roO 8,000 14~00 64~00 43.000 1~00 5.000 1.000 MOO
(l)1.14l939 ~',Il:l4.1ll9 35,155 ,~OO ~<4 JJ~OJ 14.78]31.m 44~3 30tD1 41668 5~~3 69~J5 69~39 :ll.41ll 1ll.1Gl 1ll~3 m,OS,l38,m 134.559
lmlm ~1.146.4"1~935 H~1l8 14,341 46.189 103.193 110,561 ~,36,1J,945 13,398 5,1ll0 1~J5 lUJJ 0.115 11~19 16,391 11,351 13,JJ1 3,154
11,889 ~18,m
10.101 ~1I5,;):i5 ~~O ,5JJ D9 J58 513
!l!A~ir'-Sl\\!qjWf 01~.'
991,501 ~1~53,11l 54.511 51.131 59,845 6l~1l8 65~65 68.181 n,OS,15.414 19.059 8l8H 86,148 90,869 95.185 9').705 1Ot-.oW::!1(9.403 114,roO 9~Ql3
(4)3.1'15,101 ~7.447.JJ3 234.74:l <43MI l1Wn m.m ,61,51ll 3:9~01 314tD6 3:l6~'311.038 311360 311389 3,4.131 3OO~01 3OO~41 3OO~1 300.00 36~156 36~191
~3,855,<40 ~5,OSl438
~11ll.165 ~26~154
~379,888 ~8I~Ql9 103,196 1ll,611 115Sl6 m.m 04.158 08,152 1316J8
~,69.151 ~33~J51
~'1ll.100 ~:ll8,351 163,812 I1M31 84,881
~115.000 ~165,455
~111.000 ~314.551 11.843 18.461 19.166 19.183 ,0.415 "19,__"1'.'4 'l1QI ,3,496 <4,318 J5~J8 26,OSO 26,96,21.005 ,8,961
~100.000 ~158,410 9.D8 9,511 9,81lS 1O~3:l 10,500 1O~00 11,344 11.141 Ilm
iEJl.ctrficMim:SFtoTmLl!n ~546PJO ~858,616
ectrifi:WnI:Tllm:mto ~lQl.400 ~16l4'9
~,4,.786 ~:99.109
~".000 ~33,?JJ8 3.155 3~66 3,319 3.-198
~1»1 ~~?JJO
~83.000 ~106,016
~51,851 ~61551
~15.000 ~13~1001 4l8l6 43,4:9 44,826
:Mroer-Rnse 1 ~~
l!1'Ifuver·!hase J ~~
~~lSI5 10,61'1 51M5 125,835 135.:lJl 65~3
~~
~~5,OJ6 M69 1,030 3.191 3,?JJ9 3,4,5 9.453 8,561 10,126 9.111 13,559 8,4,0 1~168
~~
SSM:&,BiceiPlld ~~33,565 3l.6!5 38,511
31.lrmase Senri:e From.12.W.tD J4~+2lJ ~~43~96 44';:;6 49.19,
3J.lrmase SmDrlDi;MI1ed ,5,<4,
tTtlf~;~~-»."\;"\f
~mte$LessE}(perdhn.s:59.448 92,500
CunulE\'e Enti\gB.ianCer'A"DsJilenr otIIe;Melf\l['f:A.Irojecb 1II,451 1"',961
Recommen~d VTA Scemrio Run #14B.-.:ls
Attachment /I 4
NEW30YEAR 114 CENT SALE S TAX
RECOMMENDED VTA SCENARIO -DECEMBER 2005
VTA POTENTIAL LONG RANGE OPERATING FORECAST
(~:irl.1b>~Wt)
2005 2006 2001
Bu40t !ll.lap !ll.ldfd 200'2009 21110 2011 2012 2013 2111'21115 20U 201'2111'21119 2020 2021 2022 2023 'ON 2025 2020
._~I\A~A_"'_~__.~v __,,..~.-~JS1 JO.4Ql ......_-....-._,---.-_..--,.--_.
~-<"'.¥....._-.~-.~~-........-..............---"'.......--"
J 1976If.l.ConSu,Th>«CClCElOO5_l.lOO5 H8,861 155,1;0 IM9<ll 17••393 18••HI 195.1J6 ;os,m JlJl,67J J3L6J5 J.~.JO JSI[H1 )59,W9 JBl,101 J9s.s01 :m.m 32.,)\0 330.6"355.775 >l2/iH 300,376 .00919
3 TDARmi<1iI.ru:J 7~OU 73.>16 77.536 '~IIS 86,683 91.W 'll~Ull.776 100000M 1l5.3>5 UO,836 rl15,575 13l,S82 13l,1l85 1.5.ID 15:l.J03 1"'.632 1Ii1~1.17~157 183,m 192,192
4 Fliliml fuvmtire :Mmr:mm:e 3M>l 33,381 31.5l<i 15,000 l5.375 15,7'"16~16.719 17.211 17.m 18,2<ll 18$18 19,38J 199M lJ.ID 2U79 2J.815 2:l.4a1 23.143 23,837 24.553 ~:;,;g
5 _O:>rU(STA,AM3I&!l<p4JSTA)'Ma M31 9.JIJ 7.617 mal rl,753 13.190 13.6'8 1~1D7 1.,596 15,1Ol 15M 16.225 16,816 IM)5 18.0>7 18,716 19,403 ;0.11.2OM9 2Jt)l9 2:l.J35
6 1roemrtIn::cm.e 8';Qher 6,648 6/iJl ~871 6,JI\l 6,606 6,878 7[m 7.310 7.683 7.835 8,310 ,~7!fl5 7.>58 8,>18 8,537 1l,5l'1l.923 9,06J 9,540 99>5 10.00
7 Ch!:Tine &vmtes:J;.19Il,:mOl'\t'tl61.t'e .Alxlrdpt(el:dsfcr Cl:Iemms:
9 nOI\tell5\rl!.Aremo.:m.ert.riDJ!OOrd>33,175 1••535 1••060 1~806 1~7()J 11,591 11.407 11.1J6 I~OIIS 10.7a1 10.574 16,OJI 1S,9,l0 15963 15,931 15.roJ 15!fl0 l8$#18.'\1 I•••n I....J 1""2
10 :;OOO:MelJim:A(b~.hsiU\ceta 18 ..tSrl.6$<1)J8,'15 JO.#8 33,182 31M)36.014 38.118 '!O.3<ll 42.751 .~~I 47.m .9.706 5lJJ1iI 51,$\1 57.131 59.815 6:l.682 1IS/iiIS 68,784 7:l.O52 7~474
11 "NewIUuriStltiTaxli\Il::il'(I7)·30l'EARTA.X 19.515 Bl,~87,197 9:l.215 '17,563 103.)51 100336 IJ5,8rl 12:l.719 J)l,548 13M54 HW51 W.7j)151.7a>16lrlO 1<ll$JI 171$87 186,337 19~18'2()J••:D
rl Qheraoot~dSmric:e~F.rcm:Mei:b"'\nA'J 10.313 80 1,1i/3 5.lJJ3 ~1i18 9••;0 IOtlll 1.~5 l6JJ55 2~3J3 J7.rl6 29.000 JO.57J 31,8>5J 32959 3•.Ol2 ~....
13 TWlR8ULllff 'l'36,9n '1'1:1,"'"...,~m :jU~"2 $Iti~9'U "'9,136 'II>'I,n '11>.,,620 '11>'11\500 iI<l~510 '11>"',5111 '11>",650 '7n,471 ~~"2 :m~7j2 _,lrnl '1'75,562 WI9,9'13 W5O,.u:z 'l',00l,196 "",0iS,33-L :p,0l~'U3
OPERATINGEXPENSES
1.Ilu;l.l<JlJ 1.3,JI4 1....'1 ISl7>l 157~7J lroro m,WJ 180,5l<i 1009'1 J00.01.JlO.574 2l1,M 233,969 2~60 J"',583 m.IH ll3,491 J93,681 Em 3H,W8 32~'336,161
15 .At;U~~~gQl,t.jJrZEb ;01 ;os 89}If,HJ J.4U 3.313 ~ill 7.701 1O~Il73'~81 18,m Jl,9)5 22tlH 23,482 )1310 J~161 J6,()J2 26,.53
16 Li;ttFAil 31.687 38,M 38,164 3O.UTI '!O.OIIS H~IIS .J/ill 45,83l .7.311l ~70 5),600 SJ,l5J 539'5 ~78J 57.613 "'.53J 6~5 63/i?f)1IS.776 67[IiJ3 7~7 72631
17 cperuim;--33,.:ll8 31.861 ?f).9ol8 3O.W ~<ll 4lH9 .3938 45$l .7.)33 ~.I"5),965 SJ.%S 5••m 57~91 $>.310 6W6 63,513 ilS/i23 1iI.761 69,96.72,236 7••579
18
Gmonl_
46,131 5),631 5),.:ll8 Sl081 53$21 ~7ro 57$96 6O~rl 6l;m M.623 liI.m ff}.7)5 72,W.7~106 78,016 801M 83,m 86,6'"00/i62 92,717 96,000 ro.335
19 ADMln'rud.~837 26,00 '1.#6 ~2>I )5,157 '1.1r1 :13.102 >l.m JO.197 3I3()J 33,453 3l/il5 34$83 36,11'13 >I,5JJ 38,778 .Q3J5 4J.819 .33<1)Ho\1l0 .6,i\S2 48,;00
;0 AD-.illo_ClMI<h ~615 6,S1iI 7,582 8,696 9.891 1~192 rl,591 1010 15.7'"17,511 19.415 ,,4&21."'8 J6,Q5')3,6;0 31375 34338 37,5J2 '!O.913
Jl C>1nUI 15,ms 15,4i'l 15,910 l6.578 17~n 179~18,648 19391 lJ.1IP ;0,976 J~'15 2l/if<l J3,P5 )1,539 ~SJI J6,S1l J7tll3 J8,7fJ/>l$S5 3J.(l50 3:l.Jl2 33,n
2l ACE 3.m 3MJ 3,9SJ M51 USJ .~55 .391 .,515 M51 UOO .931 5,OlO ~.~?f)1 5.553 ~7JO 5,9l1 6,01'13 6~M37 6,631 6,W
23 -oIWlTSOOli!Y8-I%iku2Ol!3.,369 720o:l 7~m 79JJ:Jj 8l75'86,600 OOro/9~rlO 99,638 1)I~51
)I m.r 2.ll8 2,51i1 lJ09 l411S :l.531 :l.603 JPll J.M l851 l~3,036 3.m 3,228 3,321 3,433 3,511 3,11S1 3,766 3233 4.005 ••I~":>9)
J5 _hol&""""-~17rAPord<23,411S 23,336 23,P3 23,"'1 23,610 23,618 73,6)5 73.6>1 23,656 23,655 23,1iIO 23/i15 J3,<ll9 23,701 23,7Jl J3,7J6 23,m 23,755 23.770 :J3,783 J3m3 23,821
)S +lDLq31&JrtEnft,Ba\llJ:fu."M63iAII'eAIrg~~'..alIT"'.............)6,961 7,591 7.m 19~fJ/JJ,263 ?f)3l5 .6,01.1iI,5~77.m 82.lll9 rl.tllJ m.6o:l 139.145 139.136 139.142 H~m
'1 T....""_R>o ......'I'll,,,"'1'30\692 ""'If6?"'~283 ...,~195 "'~"'O _23<.....296 ..,q625 iil'~8-16 ""',2'"'1050"'"_,m fIO~"'O $143,20''~416 'I<l'l,"":II"~105 lOU,'"_,00 $11.l,".:p,"'~"9
)3 mOJ'llle.(l\'B',~)~npEl\sef ',581 (13,206)19,~~7l}19,699 lOq35'l lO2,~11\325 Ill,'8-I 121\6"1011,322 137,,",lO~9'U 5\233 52,521 5~"'2 2qOl3 3'l,Sal :l8,57}5~15'6~'>3l ,,"00<
"..'
>l F~INJ:\VTAFmd;:.AvUhblefrx CiJlhl 7.114 5,2J!7.830 17.6>1 J~>I 24,733 J5.763 J5351 26,931 J8,.00 31.636 ll$63 J~9 33,Oj)Sl931 55.155 5Ul7 6OjJ'1 57,51i1 60.004 6.';:;J (9.315
~vrALocuF\nd;:Rtq.ili.dfcr CIP 6.411S 5,518 7.117 l6.l3J l2,'J31 IV83 rl.-lal H,6>5 15,007 l5,6\1l 1~6'17 19$81 3~7 l3Il'll I~;oo 1:l.O61 IIl.914 rl$48 18.m 18,60'17/J34 17.m
31 l?rj!.(~.;.t.lr ~ffl.'S·;·.M••rl{·~~~.t'f<IO ;'1;.~;,.".••;.~rY:.:~13,579 10.743 1••957 33,7a>31$1'13 36.516 38.1dS 48U11 .~918 #~93 46,333 48.7#5./il6 6U47 M.m 1iI~16 70.130 7J$75 75/i'17 711,6lJ '~6 86,m
,."..>.......
"61$85
'C.......",....,<.......,
32 B~Resl!11eBUmce ~:tiI iii••'"48,73S 7~333 51.192 55$#'Sl317 M.691 1iI,591 72577 76,03')8:l.>57 9:l.m 186,405 1ll.481 rl91lJJ IJ8,I'17 l3J316 l37[IiJ2 1.2356 146910
31 1n:..."",.(unk)~E<pero!,(LUJ71 ',557 (13~)>l.715 7U19 00.69}100357 102~m.m m$1l!I)3,6M 142321 137~1O.,9J.51~31 SlID 55.48J J09B >1$1'13 38Sl9 5••15.65,931 55,001
31 17rA UxolFmd;Re<phd(llio~)6.411S 5,518 7.117 l6.l3J l2,'J31 1~783 rl.-lal 1.,6>5 15,007 l5,693 1~6'17 19$81 3~7 l3Il'll I~;oo 1:l.O61 IIl.914 rl$"18.m 18,60'17.Ol4 17.471
3S ~Re"""(15Y.B<mrlMiC)'j ~.m 48.73S SlJl9 51.192 55$#58317 61$85 M,69I liI.m 7J,577 76,0:1)8J,5Ii1 9lm 186,.05 1l~481 117/i11 rl8,197 13:l316 137.OlO 1.2356 H6,910 155.5H
36 Un:mtedRe~5 (R.o;v31+Pm/3J.RoN33·Pow34)18,316 0 19.031 75.787 75.117 86,101 86317 96$10 100978 IfJ/983 m.l13 110,816 6~78J mOl ~155 37.151 3,6U ;o,9o:l 14.78J 3~172 44;93 JO.6fII
"T<U1Re""",(Re!lritt.ed&Unilri:l<d)(Ro;v3.+Ro;v351 iii••'"48.73S 7~333 1>l9ro 1~61 144.418 WJ.1S3 16~.m 177,511 11ll.S60 J~o:l 193.413 15.,25.1lJl,6fJ/1....36 15l$2l 13J.821 Im18 ID,76S 173.5J8 19~3 I~>I
.mihbIlfor~~.....Aa:aM Copil>lJroj""(-Ro;v351'oho10b0 to 0 0 0 7~787 7~1l7 86,101 86~17 %$10 100978 IfJ/983 m.ll3 110,816 6~78J mOl ~155 J5,OO0 3,62.;o,9o:l H.78J 3~172 H,213 JO.ffII38m.mwn15".tp~Sl!IQt:irJo:fl1l.trt)
T<tol~ll'o.n Uro55 U08,4oo U06..OO U5~.63 U5U63 l.lllJ,5J3 ~5'I7.00l L618,9J5 J.648,J1IS L678,I93 ~708,719 ~7JO.855 1.771.61.J.8()J~OO J.8>1~j)lW.l83 IW.l83 J.867383 ~867.383 IW.l83 J.867,383 J.81i1383
Suri:e:Irm~e 'Y.·O.W.29'1.·O.I~3.0"/.OD'I.JD'I.l.OY.13'/.la-I.la-I.la-I.18Y.1.8'1.la-I.la-I.J.7Y.ODY.0,0"/.ODY.ODY.0.0'1.Oltl.
ClmuImre Sowrlce Increase Y.3D'1.3D'!.5.ll'.6.ll'.7j<1.9.W.11.W.B.W.15j<1.11.6%19a-/.JI9"I.)lDY.)lDY.)lD'I.J.D'!.:MDY.)1.0'1.)1.0-1.
cpemi'gReS\Tl1tY.15.0-1.14.4Y.15.0-1.15.0-1.15D'1.15.0-1.15D'1.15.0'"1.15D'1.15.0-1.15D'1.15D'1.15.0".15.0-/.15.0"/.15.0".15DY.15.0-1.15.001.15DY.15.0'1.15.0-1.
TOTALEXl'ENS::B:
)5 T<U1 Cl><>lircBq"r..,(llio)5)3nUJ )3;S.'91 3f8,'J7 3'1,283 371.29J l0l.7Ol U2,2H U1,19J HO,m fS3.S{.'XJ7,lJ9 JJO,H''1',n7 701,100 ],3,20$m,m SH,H9 882,lU 9l'~9f9,On m.t03 I1J3',939
~17rAUxolFmd;Re<phdFa:C>pbl~ILU301 ',UJ J,US 7,117 U,132 12.9U 11,783 12,+02 U,'"Ij,l)07 U,'S'8 11,'97 I'll'll 33,)01 28,097 11,291:12,0'1 18,91+12.&lS 18,130 18.'CE3 17.0&l 11,H7
T«.6lbllallM ;JIJ,IrKO ;J4t.210 ;}Js,77"m,"u ;Jlrs.m:"OO,S~;J 424"';J~...."951 oISs,n2 ..S'S'.s....SlUS~S70;l2~~"9,iIl"730,797 :0",501 79~,S:J7 B73,m IrU.9SJ m,Ou 9n.~"tS"."B7 l'OS .....U
Updated:121l11.W05 2:00 PM wig R31~ope ra1l1 g fOl\1:caJt RllNt 'B.XIs.
Attachment /I 4
NEW 30 YEAR 1/4 CENT SALES TAX
RECOMMENDED VTA SCENARIO -DECEMBER 2005
VTA POlENTIAL LONG RANGE OPERATING FORECAST
(~iD.tl.:o~.u.li)2011 2020 202.2mo 2ml 20n 2033 20U 20315 2m,203'20311 2m.20./0
OPERA11NGllllI'E'lIJm
I p",(hchfrl<El:""""&Sh.nlt~)101....101l,OI7 lW.174 m.707 116~l3 m~()}11S.:m l3l$.l 134,D75 14~100 143.;aJ l5:l.174 153.7~162%3,1916lJJ.CenSu.s Thx(CCSCEJOO5 McP:rltt)4:13.313 44S1ll'4JO.OOI ~m 515.7I2 54D.J00 .;\5.etll m,747 020.900 ''-''.395 flll.)l9 7J3~747.519 7Z3.051
3 TDARlnls JJl.,3Jl Ji0$l4 ,>0.901 "~J93 :ll,.J85 ,53.800 JOS.'Sl :l71l:m 2ll.8:ll 30s.0.,3Jl;;J)S 335.416 351.348 3fJl.rzI
4 FI.deIURwmtire I\~t ;)5j)l8 7I!Jl2l 7.'.034 )3,463 J9~17 30.197 31,llll 3>.00'~97 ~rsr 35J»5 36.0;5 37.133 ?ll.ID
5 _(hrts(STA.Am34&fiq>4JSTA)",181 :llill3 :ll.874 >5,771 '~701 7.'1>01 :13.6fll ;e.707 30.785 31.901 3>.422 3>~55 33:1ll 34.070
0 Irvemnl!'l1fu:ant &:Olur 10.400 10.8"IUOI 1~65S I~'ll,l0l l3.(Ql l3.745 14~:13 14.601 14.m 15.1l8 rJ.B''.1l8
7 CU:Tine FUmtts
8 DO:Mei'.lS\n Alxm.ipro:eedsfa-cpemms
•:oJOI'1t'e¥\n Anpl)llleIt.d.)))lb:Jrd>
10 :roOMe~ACPtrn1h;hsistlnce@18.457"1.79W 82.814 00.748 ro..,.'~185 ".705 101.44,119.403 114.000 r0.033
11 "'Nl'wl,(!uriStle.Tat6\pil'U1)·30YEARTAX J14.171 :D4.314 ,3ljl01 *163 m.8X ,70.101 ~931 D5.374 31~451 3>5,100 Jil.483
U Qher(lncry:;u:edSenJiceRtvttUlP.ro:n.:Me<J>ml!J 36,445 37.orsr ,8,m ~301 4~5 43.0%44:<6 40.00'47.oSl 49.192
13 TdalRel.ULlUf '11;121\'"&,I'l4,13l &,2U,tu $1;20~650 i$i\33'7I(ifiS &,«Jl,3.tB $1;.j6~0315 'll;5~381 &,591,020 $1;W;1ll0 'll;4li1,n,'ll;2llS,olOO 'll;3~U;$1;39~610
OI'ERATlNGEXf~liS
14 Bu;347#0 35'.558 37l.819 Jel.M 397.785 411,4JJ 4>5,m 44O.m 45~JJ 470.844 479~5J "".3JO 498..,1 .'ill.$l
15 .A.diti?~~ga"st.fl'rZ1Jb 7.'.8%)3,873 ;e.883 3O.m 3Jill'33,13>34.;eJ 35,492 ~734 33j))39.351 40,7:13 42,153 4~""
16 Ll<ttRill 75[fl6 77.005 ~"8J931 8~73J 88.530 '1.6:13 91,7:13 97~35 10US>llll;lOl 101,325 JfJl.8%11~;,)
17 tpmli<u MniUm1in 10m 79.400 8Jjlc9J 84.711 87,445 00,J02 93.167 %,161 "~47 102,47.'1Ill.445 1Ol,553 117,510 rJLJ9J
18 Gmlnl_llll.6rsl 1O~155 1()}.845 113,f6\117.016 rJ1,705 11S.937 13O~17 l34.849 138,377 10,%3 147.714 l5:lf>36 157,7»
19 ADM\nl=;i .9:1,195 5JJl70 51il18 >1.01,5al40 c9J33>"'till 01..,6 OI,4JJ 19~75 n.639 75~n:m 75,010
».AD..!VI\nirm;iJl'Ogm.GDmlh -14.017 48.501 5J791 5/,336 '~7 01.130 73j);(}79JJJ'~45/'~343 9'}.716 JfJltm 116ml 11S.1OO
,1 C>!Ir>h 34m ~:ll 37,777 39,>38 4~9 4~1~-14.193 45..,1 47.800 49.712 51,700 53.763 55~19 58,1>5
JJ ACE 7.004 7~45 7,463 7.6rs1 7~17 8,155 8.JW 8,051 ~11 '.178 '.454 '.737 1Oj);(}1O,3JO
23 -;BARTS1.iIrilyU%ifa:u2025 130,153 l3~5 14~11 149,.$45 1>5,700 164,1+1-17~910 1OO.1Ol 188t03 197.o:ll ;mill1 ,16.844 rn.145 >37,931
)l CIhtr 4~3 4,531 4.on 4.819 4.970 ~1;)5 5~~m 51>"~79}ml '.1IB '.302 '.552
:l5 B::h:pM&Irtm~D.ts!mdi'e;VfAPord>4,m 5,O1ll
)5 +ID\C:~al&Iri«tit,:Bmdfm-:r.tMs1nAI:njE.<lU~r..gllToIl............)147~11 15~705 Im71 lIIl,147 191m 19l.891 19U97 191,833 191,800 J~¥.:b7.'T....~<Uinglbp"""'11;0"'03'1 &,W<,5lll 1i,I26,an $1;l?9,'l55 '11;2011,2'"&,~7U $1;"",'00 'll;3~0'"$i,m,'Ul '11;314 461 'll;3ro,llII 'll;4(I1,on $1;..~.,.
)3 fu:OJ'IlIe.(l\'U'~~El:pwef lII,lO!7.l,611 3'1,'00 llll,9l>i .~m 1146U ID,O:U 158,5110 m,o,"I~05t m,m cu,Q71)('ll,IlJ6)(81,250)
;e F~IN:nVTAFi.nQ;~fIIC~b1 fll,:>:J3 7O.7:fJ ~4rJ ~1>5 78,8J'81,500 84.436 87~1 ro.4~93.615 %,l1OO 1OO,Jl3 llll,m JfJl.4;)5
30 VfAI.o:alFlnd>Rtcphdfcr CIP '1~~15 J3,93O >5,005 ,6,317 7.'.7fJ3 ;e.l6S 3~708 ~36 ~40 34.755 35.733 36~1O 38,051
31 ;ri':!.c.!.<:..l~~N<••!::·i-.~.><!l{,;o;:,r~,..,...;'1:,.',,"'d !+:;-r't'1:<f}00,163 93.675 97~0 IOL161 1Ill,B'1()}~83 113,000 118Jl99 1~780 17.',555 l31.617 l3Oill7 1l0.703 14~4rsI
3>B~R.e:;:ElVe :&lmce 155.511 158,075 101,178 IIB,OO3 170,%3 loo.49:l 19J,7()}199,185 ,05.931 m~OI :m.117 35I.or5 :lll~W,7:fJ
3l 1n:""."",~)~El<pms<,(Lh!'7)01.16>791>11 97~00 ~001 94,3>7 116f>:ll ~931 158~177.878 1751>51 160~l3 (74.677)(71,:fJ5)(:fJ,>;5)
34 VfA!.«oIF\nd;Recpnd(Lire 30)'1~~15 J3,93O >5,005 ,6,317 7l,7m ;e,l6S 3~708 ~36 ~40 34.755 35.733 36~1O 38,051
35 ~Re_(15y.B=1~158[115 164,178 l(I>ilfJ3 1~%3 18O.m 1~700 199.185 :>:Jl,931 m~OI '~1l7 197.470 :>:J4,0J5 l3l,7:fJ ~441
36 Un.m:..dRe_,(Rw31 +Ro,lIl·Row 33 •_34)4J.6fll j),593 (I>~:l5 19,939 5a48'8J701 00,:>:J3 rJlj)5J 138,5rJ 134,5:fJ 154,:>:Jl 37~0 0
37 TctA1Ruwres(Rtmided&Unstri:ted)(RaN34+RoN3S)))),743 ,14,771 ,38,J:13 *902 :ll4~'7~413 W,478 3;)5~35U73 351.070 35I.or5 )l1~l3J,7:fJ ~441
.hri\:ihblliorl\~lW:e Aa:(1M"C~pmlJroje:ts(-Rcw3Sv.h&~to 4J.6fll j),593 19~:l5 (1).939 58,48,8J701 00,:>:J3 rJlj)5J 138,5rJ 134,5:fJJ8m.:iliWn15"'+cp~s:em:irto 1UUIe)
T""~Hcus 1.8DI;m ~7~3 ~7~3 1,801~83 1.8DI;m ~7,J83 1,801~83 1.8DI;m ~7~3 l.801~83 l.8D1;m LIl57,J83 ~Il57,J83 l.801~83
Smr.i:~Irm¥eY.Ony.0.0'/.on'!.on'!.o.oY.on'!.OD"'I.ODY.on'!.on'!.anY.on'!.on'!.Offl.
t\m:ulmre Serna:In(R~Y.:llny.:ll.0'/.:M.O'"I.J4n'!.:llny.:lln'!.::Ii})"l.:llny.:M.W.:M.W.)4DY.::14.0'"1.,;n'!.:l4D"1.
CP~R,e;SEWl!:"'.15ny.15.0'!.15n'!.15,0"1.15ny.15.0'1.15.0"1.15ny.15n'!.150X·15ny.15.0'"1.'.<Y.'.<Y.
TOTAL E"a'HN5:m'
;)5 TCUlC\>.nlir(;;,,-,,(Lire ;)5)1,0'3,837 1,09..,10 1,11'.'81 1,179,7'J 1,2n,178 l,21*,7U 1,377,S<JO 1371.81'Ul9,7U 1.4 ''7,U3 1,JU,U7 1,3'0,1'7 1,407.031 l.m.87~
30 vrA!.«oIF\nd;RecpndFa C>piolli"ogM>(Lh!30)n,S'o 22,91'23,930 21,00]2'.317 27,703 2Ql")0,1)8 31,33'n,9U 3+.:tI'3';133 3(910 3s.o'l
TItAIl;s>all-M 1,015,71'7 1.1l7.4J~1,150,617 l.~4.1St l,:Z't,~5 1,312,427 1,357,065 1,<103,$3 1,452,078 1,59!,363 1,;m:m 1,J1.i,S'0l l,400,N2 l,<tJo2,tJ5
Updaled:I 2/l1/l005 2:00 PM Lo1g RUg!Opel3tllg forecaU Rn N1n.:ds:
~~~.L~~_~,,~,,~.-_._
2004 2005
Year Projection Projection Change
2008 4.90/0 5.7%0.8%
2009 5.00k 5.70/0 0.7%
2010 5.0%5.8%0.80/0
2011 4.80/0 5.80/0 1.00/0
2012 4.8%5.8%1.0%
2013 4.80/0 5.90/0 1.10/0
2014 4.80/0 5.9%1.10/0
2015 4.8%6.00/0 1.20/0
2016-2036 4.80/0 4.80/0 00/0
I .
Updated
City FY2006 (2)FY2007 (2)FY2006 (3)
.2.000/0 2.000/0 2.000/0
4.550/0 7.880/0 5.400/0
Sunnyvale 1.900/0 4.900/0 3.400/0
Palo Alto 3.300/0 3.80%4.00 0/0
3.75%5.000/0 2.000/0
Milpitas n.a.n.a.6.300/0
Gilroy 10.700/0 8.300/0 9.500/0
Average 4.370/0 5.310/0 4.660/0
~-----..-1 ----------------------i~
~I
,--~-~'--~~--------_.