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Attachment 4 - Revenue and Expenditure Forecast AssumptionsATTACHMENT 4 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS REVENUE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS Type of Revenue Base Line Estimate FY2023/24 Budget FY 2024/25 Forecast FY 2025/26 Forecast FY 2026/27 Forecast FY2027/28 Forecast FY 2028/29 Forecast Property Tax/VLF Backfill SCC Assessor Office January 2023 report. 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% North 40 Property Sales Additional $187K $327K Cumulative $467K Cumulative 3% 3% 3% ERAF SCC Assessor Office March 2023 report SCCAO Recommends 70% of FY 2022/23 Anticipated Proceeds 50% of FY 2023/24 Anticipated Proceeds $770K 50% of FY 2023/24 Anticipated Proceeds $770K 50% of FY 2023/24 Anticipated Proceeds $770K 50% of FY 2023/24 Anticipated Proceeds $770K 50% of FY 2023/24 Anticipated Proceeds $770K Sales Tax MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates Sales Tax - Measure G MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates MuniServices March 2023 Most Likely Estimates Franchise Fee (Not Including Garbage Franchise Fees) Current baseline set by FY 2022/23 Year End Estimates 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Garbage Franchise Fee Partial proceeds from July 2023 – Feb 2024 $1.2M 50% of FY 2022/23 anticipated proceeds $940K 50% of FY 2022/23 anticipated proceeds $940K 50% of FY 2022/23 anticipated proceeds $940K 50% of FY 2022/23 anticipated proceeds $940K 50% of FY 2022/23 anticipated proceeds $940K ATTACHMENT 4 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS REVENUE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS Type of Revenue Base Line Estimates FY 2023/24 Budget FY 2024/25 Forecast FY 2025/26 Forecast FY 2026/27 Forecast FY2027/28 Forecast FY 2028/29 Forecast Transient Occupancy Tax Current baseline set by FY 2022/23 Year End Estimates 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% Business License Tax Current baseline set by FY 2022/23 Year End Estimates 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% License & Permits Current baseline set by FY 2022/23 Year End Estimates 4.4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Town Services Current baseline set by FY 2022/23 Year End Estimates 3% 3% 0% 3% 3% 3% Fine & Forfeitures Current baseline set by FY 2022/23 Year End Estimates 1% Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies Interest Varies based on portfolio 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Other Sources Current baseline set by FY 2022/23 Year End Estimates Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies ATTACHMENT 4 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS EXPENDITURE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS Beginning in FY 2020/21, the Town is budgeting salaries at the actual salary plus a one-step increase. 70% of the workforce is already at top step or one step below top step. In the Five-Year Forecast, positions are forecasted at the actual rate of pay including salaries and benefits as of March 1, 2022 and rate is increasing in the actual anniversary date. The FY 2024/25 – FY 2028/29 Forecast includes 4% salary savings. All positions are fully budgeted in FY 2023/24 Proposed Budget. Type of Expenditure FY2023/24 Budget FY 2024/25 Forecast FY 2025/26 Forecast FY 2026/27 Forecast FY2027/28 Forecast FY 2028/29 Forecast Salaries* 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Benefit - Medical** 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% Salary Savings 0% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Operating Expenditures*** Varies 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Grants & Awards 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Utilities*** Varies 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Internal Service Charges*** Based on operating cost and scheduled replacement Based on operating cost and scheduled replacement Based on operating cost and scheduled replacement Based on operating cost and scheduled replacement Based on operating cost and scheduled replacement Based on operating cost and scheduled replacement Debt Service Debt Service Schedules *Salary increases are based on actual step increases and approved Memoranda of Understanding with the bargaining units. **Benefit increase estimates are provided by CalPERS/Public Employees’ Medical and Hospital Care Act (PEMHCA). ***Based on historical trends. The Town’s required employer contribution rate estimates were developed using data provided by each plan’s most recent CalPERS actuarial valuation. The employer contribution rates reflect percentages of covered payroll. Rates shown for FY 2023/24 are actual rates as prescribed by CalPERS. Forecasted rates for FY 2024/25 and subsequent years are based on the most recent CalPERS actuarial valuation Reports as adjusted by the impact related to the FY 2021/22 CalPERS negative 7.5% investment return and forecasted payroll. ATTACHMENT 4 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Beginning in FY 2021/22, the estimates of employer contributions were credited with an anticipated reductions associated with the approximate $4.8 million additional discretionary payment (ADP) toward the 2016 unfunded amortization base paid off in October 2019 and the total of approximately $5.8 million in ADPs toward unfunded 2013 and 2015 amortization bases that were paid off in FY 2020/21. Estimates were also informed by recent rate estimates developed by the Town’s actuary using the most recent actuarial valuation updated with current year projections of covered payrolls by plan type. Type of Expenditure FY2023/24 Budget FY 2024/25 Forecast FY 2025/26 Forecast FY 2026/27 Forecast FY2027/28 Forecast FY 2028/29 Forecast Safety POA 81.30% 87.00% 90.90% 90.80% 99.30% 108.40% Safety Management POA 84.30% 90.00% 93.90% 93.80% 102.30% 111.40% Safety POA - PEPRA 14.50% 14.70% 15.00% 15.40% 15.90% 16.40% Miscellaneous TEA/Confidential/ Management 29.97% 29.20% 28.30% 29.80% 31.00% 32.50% Miscellaneous TEA/Confidential/ Management PEPRA Separate PEPRA rate for Miscellaneous has not been established yet by CalPERS. 29.97% 29.20% 28.30% 29.80% 31.00% 32.50% *Safety Classic Rate reflects 3% decrease in employer's contribution rate to reflect 3% contribution as negotiated with the Town's POA during the collective bargaining process effective FY 2019/20.