Attachment 4 - Revenue and Expenditure Forecast AssumptionsATTACHMENT 4
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
REVENUE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS
Type of
Revenue Base
Line Estimate
FY2023/24
Budget
FY 2024/25
Forecast
FY 2025/26
Forecast
FY 2026/27
Forecast
FY2027/28
Forecast
FY 2028/29
Forecast
Property
Tax/VLF
Backfill
SCC Assessor
Office January
2023 report.
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
North 40
Property
Sales
Additional
$187K $327K
Cumulative
$467K
Cumulative 3% 3% 3%
ERAF
SCC Assessor
Office March
2023 report
SCCAO
Recommends
70% of FY
2022/23
Anticipated
Proceeds
50% of
FY 2023/24
Anticipated
Proceeds
$770K
50% of
FY 2023/24
Anticipated
Proceeds
$770K
50% of
FY 2023/24
Anticipated
Proceeds
$770K
50% of
FY 2023/24
Anticipated
Proceeds
$770K
50% of
FY 2023/24
Anticipated
Proceeds
$770K
Sales Tax
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
Sales Tax -
Measure G
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
MuniServices
March 2023
Most Likely
Estimates
Franchise Fee
(Not Including
Garbage
Franchise
Fees)
Current
baseline set
by FY 2022/23
Year End
Estimates
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Garbage
Franchise Fee
Partial
proceeds
from July
2023 – Feb
2024
$1.2M
50% of
FY 2022/23
anticipated
proceeds
$940K
50% of
FY 2022/23
anticipated
proceeds
$940K
50% of
FY 2022/23
anticipated
proceeds
$940K
50% of
FY 2022/23
anticipated
proceeds
$940K
50% of
FY 2022/23
anticipated
proceeds
$940K
ATTACHMENT 4
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
REVENUE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS
Type of
Revenue Base
Line Estimates
FY 2023/24
Budget
FY 2024/25
Forecast
FY 2025/26
Forecast
FY 2026/27
Forecast
FY2027/28
Forecast
FY 2028/29
Forecast
Transient
Occupancy Tax
Current baseline
set by FY
2022/23 Year
End Estimates
3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1%
Business License
Tax
Current baseline
set by FY
2022/23 Year
End Estimates
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
License &
Permits
Current baseline
set by FY
2022/23 Year
End Estimates
4.4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Town Services
Current baseline
set by FY
2022/23 Year
End Estimates
3% 3% 0% 3% 3% 3%
Fine &
Forfeitures
Current baseline
set by FY
2022/23 Year
End Estimates
1% Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies
Interest Varies based
on portfolio 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Sources
Current baseline
set by FY
2022/23 Year
End Estimates
Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies Varies
ATTACHMENT 4
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
EXPENDITURE BASELINE AND PROJECTION FACTORS
Beginning in FY 2020/21, the Town is budgeting salaries at the actual salary plus a one-step increase.
70% of the workforce is already at top step or one step below top step. In the Five-Year Forecast,
positions are forecasted at the actual rate of pay including salaries and benefits as of March 1, 2022 and
rate is increasing in the actual anniversary date. The FY 2024/25 – FY 2028/29 Forecast includes 4%
salary savings. All positions are fully budgeted in FY 2023/24 Proposed Budget.
Type of
Expenditure
FY2023/24
Budget
FY 2024/25
Forecast
FY 2025/26
Forecast
FY 2026/27
Forecast
FY2027/28
Forecast
FY 2028/29
Forecast
Salaries* 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Benefit -
Medical** 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Salary Savings 0% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Operating
Expenditures*** Varies 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Grants & Awards 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Utilities*** Varies 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Internal Service
Charges***
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Based on
operating
cost and
scheduled
replacement
Debt Service Debt Service Schedules
*Salary increases are based on actual step increases and approved Memoranda of Understanding with the
bargaining units.
**Benefit increase estimates are provided by CalPERS/Public Employees’ Medical and Hospital Care Act
(PEMHCA).
***Based on historical trends.
The Town’s required employer contribution rate estimates were developed using data provided by each
plan’s most recent CalPERS actuarial valuation. The employer contribution rates reflect percentages of
covered payroll. Rates shown for FY 2023/24 are actual rates as prescribed by CalPERS. Forecasted
rates for FY 2024/25 and subsequent years are based on the most recent CalPERS actuarial valuation
Reports as adjusted by the impact related to the FY 2021/22 CalPERS negative 7.5% investment return
and forecasted payroll.
ATTACHMENT 4
FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
Beginning in FY 2021/22, the estimates of employer contributions were credited with an anticipated
reductions associated with the approximate $4.8 million additional discretionary payment (ADP) toward
the 2016 unfunded amortization base paid off in October 2019 and the total of approximately $5.8
million in ADPs toward unfunded 2013 and 2015 amortization bases that were paid off in FY 2020/21.
Estimates were also informed by recent rate estimates developed by the Town’s actuary using the most
recent actuarial valuation updated with current year projections of covered payrolls by plan type.
Type of
Expenditure
FY2023/24
Budget
FY 2024/25
Forecast
FY 2025/26
Forecast
FY 2026/27
Forecast
FY2027/28
Forecast
FY 2028/29
Forecast
Safety
POA 81.30% 87.00% 90.90% 90.80% 99.30% 108.40%
Safety
Management
POA
84.30% 90.00% 93.90% 93.80% 102.30% 111.40%
Safety
POA - PEPRA 14.50% 14.70% 15.00% 15.40% 15.90% 16.40%
Miscellaneous
TEA/Confidential/
Management
29.97% 29.20% 28.30% 29.80% 31.00% 32.50%
Miscellaneous
TEA/Confidential/
Management
PEPRA
Separate PEPRA
rate for
Miscellaneous has
not been
established yet by
CalPERS.
29.97% 29.20% 28.30% 29.80% 31.00% 32.50%
*Safety Classic Rate reflects 3% decrease in employer's contribution rate to reflect 3% contribution as
negotiated with the Town's POA during the collective bargaining process effective FY 2019/20.