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Attachment 2 - Base Case Five-Year ForecastATTACHMENT 2 BASE CASE Account Revenue Category 2020/21 Actuals 2021/22 Adjusted Budget 2021/22 Estimates 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 4100 Property Tax 15.8$ 15.9$ 15.4$ 15.5$ 15.7$ 16.1$ 16.6$ 17.1$ 4110 VLF Backfill Property Tax 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 4200 Sales & Use Tax 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.2 4200 Measure G District Sales Tax 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 4250 Franchise Fees 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 4251 Transient Occupancy Tax 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 4400 Business License Tax 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 4400 Licenses & Permits 3.1 2.7 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 4500 Intergovernmental 1.6 4.4 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 4600 Town Services 4.6 3.6 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 4700 Fines & Forfeitures 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4800 Interest 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4850 Other Sources 3.7 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 4900 Fund Transfers In 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 46.6$ 47.3$ 45.4$ 44.2$ 45.2$ 46.2$ 47.4$ 48.6$ p p j Capital 3.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Use of Pension/OPEB Reserve 4.5 - - - - - - - p p j Other - 0.3 Use of Property Surplus Reserve - 1.2 1.2 - - - - - Use of Measure G Reserve - 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 ARPA Replacement Revenue - - 1.4 - - - - - 54.5$ 49.7$ 49.2$ 45.6$ 46.6$ 47.6$ 48.9$ 50.1$ Account Expenditure Category 2020/21 Actuals 2020/21 Budget 2021/22 Estimates 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 5110 Salary 20.2 20.8 20.6 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.8 5120 CalPERS Benefits 6.4 7.3 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.7 7.6 7.9 5200 All Other Benefits 3.7 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 6211 OPEB Pay as You Go 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 6000 Operating Expenditures 5.7 6.2 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.8 7200 Grants & Awards 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 7400 Utilities 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 8060 Internal Service Charges 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.6 8900 Debt Service 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 42.4$ 46.1$ 45.3$ 45.0$ 46.5$ 48.0$ 48.9$ 50.3$ GASB 45 Retiree Medical Actuarial 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Additional Discretionary Payment - Pension 5.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 48.6$ 46.6$ 45.8$ 45.8$ 47.2$ 48.6$ 49.5$ 50.9$ Capital Transfers Out to GFAR 3.4 2.8 2.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 g Stabilization/Catastrophic 0.1 - - - - - - - Allocate to Compensated Absences 0.1 - Allocate to Property Surplus Reserve 1.2 - - - - - - - Allocate to CalPERS/Pension 0.3 - Allocate to Measure G - Capital - 0.5 0.6 - - - - - Allocate to ARPA Reserve - - - - - - - - 53.7$ 49.9$ 49.2$ 47.2$ 48.6$ 50.0$ 51.0$ 52.4$ 0.8$ (0.2)$ -$ (1.6)$ (2.0)$ (2.4)$ (2.1)$ (2.3)$ * Due to rounding of individual categories FY 2021/22 Total Expenditures and Reserve Allocations includes $0.1 million. General Fund (111) Forecast does not include Pension Trusts activities. ($37,810 in interest proceeds inFY 2020/21) NET REVENUES RESERVE TRANSFERS LESS EXPENDITURES & RESERVE ALLOCATIONS FOR FINAL ALLOCATION AFTER YEAR END CLOSE TOTAL REVENUES, TRANSFERS, AND USE OF RESERVES TOTAL EXPENDITURES & RESERVE ALLOCATIONS TOTAL OPERATING REVENUES & TRANSFERS* TOTAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES TOTAL OPERATING & DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURES Town of Los Gatos General Fund 5-Year Forecast (in $ million) AMOUNTS AVAILABLE FOR RESERVE ALLOCATIONS ATTACHMENT 2 Account Revenue Category 2015/16 Actuals 2016/17 Actuals 2017/18 Actuals 2018/19 Actuals 2019/20 Actuals 4100 Property Tax 10.8$ 11.5$ 12.5$ 13.6$ 14.5$ 4110 VLF Backfill Property Tax 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9 4200 Sales & Use Tax 7.5 9.2 7.6 20.8 6.5 4200 Measure G District Sales Tax - - - 0.2 1.0 4250 Franchise Fees 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 4251 Transient Occupancy Tax 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.7 1.9 4400 Business License Tax 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 4400 Licenses & Permits 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 4500 Intergovernmental 1.0 0.9 1.0 26.6 1.0 4600 Town Services 4.0 3.3 4.4 30.0 4.2 4700 Fines & Forfeitures 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 4800 Interest 0.6 0.2 0.2 1.4 2.2 4850 Other Sources 2.3 4.4 3.2 132.9 2.8 4900 Fund Transfers In 2.4 0.3 0.8 14.4 0.6 41.7$ 43.3$ 43.6$ 253.9$ 45.6$ p p j Capital - 1.4 3.2 2.8 8.0 Use of Pension/OPEB Reserve - - - - - p p j Other - - - - - Use of Almond Grove Reserve - 5.9 - - - 41.7$ 50.6$ 46.8$ 256.7$ 53.6$ Account Expenditure Category 2015/16 Actuals 2016/17 Actuals 2017/18 Actuals 2018/19 Actuals 2019/20 Actuals 5110 Salary 14.5 14.8 16.0 17.9 19.3 5120 CalPERS Benefits 3.6 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 5200 All Other Benefits 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.6 6211 OPEB Pay as You Go 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 6000 Operating Expenditures 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.6 5.1 7200 Grants & Awards 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 7400 Utilities 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 8060 Internal Service Charges 3.5 3.6 3.9 2.5 2.2 8900 Debt Service 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 33.6$ 34.0$ 36.2$ 38.8$ 40.2$ GASB 45 Retiree Medical Actuarial 1.5 2.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 35.1$ 36.6$ 37.8$ 39.9$ 41.3$ Capital Transfers Out to GFAR 0.5 7.3 2.6 2.3 7.0 Operating Tranfer Out 0.1 - 0.6 0.5 1.1 Fixed Assets/ Equipment 0.4 - - - 0.1 / y Fund - - 1.2 3.6 0.4 5.6$ 6.7$ 4.6$ 210.4$ 3.7$ Allocate to Almond Grove Reserve 2.5 - - - - Allocate to Market Fluctuations Reserve 0.3 0.3 - - 1.2 Allocate to CalPERS/Pension Reserve - 1.8 - - - Allocate to Measure G Reserve - - - - 1.2 Allocate to VM & Stores Surplus Reserve - - - 1.0 - Allocate to Authorized Carryforwards 0.1 - - - - Sales Tax Prior - Year Adjusments - 0.4 - - - Allocate to Property Surplus Reserve - - - 1.9 - 39.0$ 46.4$ 42.2$ 49.2$ 52.2$ 2.7$ 4.2$ 4.6$ 207.5$ 1.4$ TOTAL OPERATING & DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURES AMOUNTS AVAILABLE FOR RESERVE ALLOCATIONS TOTAL EXPENDITURES & RESERVE ALLOCATIONS NET REVENUES RESERVE TRANSFERS LESS EXPENDITURES & RESERVE ALLOCATIONS FOR FINAL ALLOCATION AFTER YEAR END CLOSE * Due to rounding of individual categories Total Expenditures and Reserve Allocations may include $0.1 million. General Fund (111) Historical presentaion does not include Pension Trusts activities. TOTAL OPERATING EXPENDITURES Town of Los Gatos General Fund Historical Year-End Results (in $ million) TOTAL OPERATING REVENUES & TRANSFERS* TOTAL REVENUES, TRANSFERS, AND USE OF RESERVES