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Item 2 - Staff Report with Attachments PREPARED BY: JENNIFER ARMER, AICP Senior Planner 110 E. Main Street Los Gatos, CA 95030 ● 408-354-6832 www.losgatosca.gov MEETING DATE: 1/30/2020 ITEM: 2 TOWN OF LOS GATOS GENERAL PLAN UPDATE ADVISORY COMMITTEE REPORT REPORT DATE: January 24, 2020 TO: General Plan Update Advisory Committee FROM: Joel Paulson, Community Development Director SUBJECT: Discuss and Develop a Preferred Land Use Alternative Recommendation. BACKGROUND: On December 12, 2019, the General Plan Update Advisory Committee (GPAC) met to discuss the Land Use Alternatives Report (available online here: www.losgatos2040.com/documents.html). On January 16, 2020, the Town hosted the second Community Workshop of the General Plan update process. The Community Workshop was held to inform the community about the General Plan update process and solicit feedback regarding the Land Use Alternatives. A summary of the Community Workshop is included as Attachment 7. DISCUSSION: The goal of the land use alternatives process is to determine the appropriate location, density, and intensity of residential, commercial, mixed residential/commer cial, and industrial uses that reflect the vision of Los Gatos in the General Plan. The GPAC plays an important role in the land use alternatives process which is to recommend a preferred land use alternative to the Planning Commission and Town Council that is informed by community input and will form the foundation for the General Plan update. The recommended land use alternative could be one of the four presented in the Land Use Alternatives Report, or it could be a combination of parts of multiple alternatives. Additional informational tables comparing the four land use alternatives are included as Attachments 8, 9, and 10. It is also possible to consider other options. The preferred land use alternative will be used in the 2040 General Plan Land Use Diagram, land use designations, and associated land use goals, policies, and action items. Once the land use alternative is determined, other General Plan Elements can be reviewed. The preferred PAGE 2 OF 3 SUBJECT: Preferred Land Use Alternative January 24, 2020 N:\DEV\GPAC\GPAC Staff Reports\2020\01-30-20\Item 2 - Staff Report FINAL.docx DISCUSSION (continued): alternative is also the foundation for the analysis that will be completed in the 2040 General Plan Environmental Impact Report (EIR). The purpose of this GPAC meeting is to make a formal recommendation of a preferred land use alternative to the Planning Commission and Town Council. The following questions have been provided to help guide the GPAC’s discussion. A. Of the four alternatives (A, B, C, and D), which is preferred on its own, or as a base alternative with modifications? B. Are there items that should be added to a potential preferred alternative? • For example, are there areas of the land use map where the land use designation(s) should be changed? C. Are there components of a potential preferred alternative that should be modified? • For example, are there opportunity areas that should be added or deleted ? NEXT STEPS: The GPAC’s preferred land use alternative recommendation is tentatively scheduled to be considered by the Planning Commission and Town Council in February and March 2020, respectively. OTHER INFORMATION: The following information is provided in response to requests by GPAC members and/or the public. Committee members may find that some of this information is useful in consideration of the land use alternatives. For those items that are not directly related to this meeting’s discussion, there will be opportunities to discuss these matters at future GPAC meetings. • The discussion on December 12, 2019 included a request for more detailed figures on household size, possibly differentiating between different housing types. Unfortunately, that information is not available at that detailed level for the Town of Los Gatos. • The discussion on December 12, 2019, included a request for a master evaluation table laying out the differences between the four alternatives. This additional information is included in Attachment 8. PAGE 3 OF 3 SUBJECT: Preferred Land Use Alternative January 24, 2020 N:\DEV\GPAC\GPAC Staff Reports\2020\01-30-20\Item 2 - Staff Report FINAL.docx OTHER INFORMATION (continued): • The discussion on December 12, 2019 included a request for additional fiscal information to support creating an alternative that is net positive. The Land Use Alternatives Report is not meant to include a full financial analysis, but present s the relative merits and impacts of the alternatives being considered. Additional fiscal analysis will be completed for the final preferred alternative. • The discussion on December 12, 2019 included a request for more detailed information about the number of units produced under each alternative, specifically providing the number of units projected for the land under each land use designation. This additional information is included in the Alternatives Comparison Table, Attachment 9. PUBLIC COMMENTS: Public comments received by 11:00 a.m., Friday, January 24, 2020 are included as Attachment 11. ATTACHMENTS: Attachments previously received with December 12, 2019 Staff Report: 1. Land Use Alternatives Report, dated December 2019, available online here: www.losgatos2040.com/documents.html 2. GPAC Process Schedule 3. Changes in Housing Element Law 4. Missing Middle Housing Information 5. Public Comment Received before 11:00 a.m., Friday, December 6, 2019 Attachments previously received with December 12, 2019 Desk Item Report: 6. Public Comments Attachments received with this Staff Report: 7. Community Workshop #2 Summary 8. Master Land Use Alternatives Comparison Table 9. Opportunity Area Dwelling Units by Alternatives Comparison Table 10. Assumptions, Development Standards, and Net New Dwelling Unit Comparison Table 11. Public Comments received before 11:00 a.m., Friday, January 24, 2020 Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 1 of 10 Community Workshop #2: Land Use Alternatives Thursday January 16, 2020 6:30 pm – 8:30 pm Fisher Middle School Library Los Gatos, CA On Thursday, January 16, 2020, the Town hosted the second community workshop on the General Plan update to inform the community about the General Plan update process and solicit feedback related to the Land Use Alternatives Report. The Community Workshop included an introductory presentation by the consultant team on where we are in the General Plan update process, an overview of the Land Use Alternatives Report, and a discussion of the next steps. Attendees were provided a similar presentation to that provided to the General Plan Advisory Committee (GPAC) on December 12, 2019. The presentation highlighted the importance of the land use alternatives process in the General Plan update and the steps the GPAC, Town staff, and Consultant team took to develop the set of alternatives and associated analysis presented in the Alternatives Report. At the conclusion of the presentation, attendees were able to ask questions on the process and results of the Land Use Alternatives Report. Attendees were then able to walk through a series of stations with informative boards and an interactive survey highlighting the process and results of the Land Use Alternatives Report. This workshop format was set up as an open house which allowed for more one-on-one interaction and dialogue between attendees, Town staff, and the consultant team. Following the workshop, the PowerPoint presentation, informational posters, and the survey were uploaded to the General Plan website (losgatos2040.com) to allow community members who were not able to attend in person the ability to participate and provide feedback. The online engagement exercises will be active from January 17 – January 28, 2020. The following is an overview of the public comments and feedback from both the workshop and online engagement, as of January 23, 2020. Community Workshop #2 Survey The survey provided at the community workshop and on the General Plan website consisted of a series of 10 questions. These questions focused on the identification and selection of Opportunity Areas as well as input on the range of, allowable density, building height, and housing product types. ATTACHMENT 7 Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 2 of 10 Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 3 of 10 Community Workshop #2 Survey Results The following includes all feedback collected at both the workshop and online related to the Land Use Alternatives Survey. The only additional area identified by attendees was inclusion of the Downtown area, highlighted in red below. Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 4 of 10 The graph above shows the number of persons that thought that Opportunity Area should be removed from the alternatives considered. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Los Gatos Boulevard Hardwood Road Pollard Road Lark Avenue Union Avenue North Santa Cruz Avenue Winchester Avenue 2 1 4 1 1 Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 5 of 10 SELECTED: 3 times SELECTED: 4 times SELECTED: 6 times SELECTED: 6 times SELECTED: 5 times Townhomes Condominiums Multiple Detached Single-Family Units Duplex/Triplex/Fourplex Apartments Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 6 of 10 The following are the maps that attendees completed at the workshop. At the time of the completion of the Staff Report for the GPAC Meeting, no maps were completed as part of the online engagement. SELECTED: 4 times SELECTED: 3 times Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 7 of 10 Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 8 of 10 Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 9 of 10 The following numbers in the table show how many times the option was selected. Yes No Not sure/no opinion Duplex 5 2 0 Triplex 4 3 0 Fourplex 2 5 0 SELECTED: 1 time SELECTED: 2 times SELECTED: 1 time SELECTED: 1 time SELECTED: 1 time SELECTED: 1 time SELECTED: 4 times SELECTED: 1 time SELECTED: 1 time Community Workshop #2 January 16, 2020 Page 10 of 10 The following numbers in the table show how many times the option was selected.  Please identify the Elks Lodge properly as High Density Residential (HDR). Currently the map shows it as Low Density Residential (LDR). What a coincidence it is located directly across from the “The Bay Club”.  Make the former lot high density residential at the corner of Los Gatos-Almaden at Los Gatos Blvd.  There are current issues with traffic congestion, and I anticipate more upon the completion of the project at LG Boulevard and Lark. Parking is constrained at all stores. We do not have the infrastructure to accommodate large increases to the population. Los Gatos is a town, not a city with multi-storied buildings. Alternative A 3 Alternative B 1 Alternative C 1 Alternative D 2 None of the Above 0 ATTACHMENT 8 Master Land Use Alternatives Comparison Table Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Alternative D Population Total Net New Population 2,834 4,598 5,587 7,682 Total Population 3,974 5,738 6,727 8,822 Total Projected 2040 Population 34,969 36,733 37,722 39,817 Housing Net New Dwellings 681 1,416 1,828 2,701 Potential Net New Accessory Dwelling Units 500 500 500 500 Total Net New Dwelling Units 1,181 1,916 2,328 3,201 Pending/Approved Dwelling Units 475 475 475 475 Total Future Dwelling Units 1,656 2,391 2,803 3,676 Dwelling Units Per Land Use Designation Low Density Residential (LDR) - in OA 95 141 180 283 Low Density Residential (LDR) - outside OA 43 160 164 264 Low Density Residential (LDR) - Total Dwelling Units 138 301 344 547 Medium Density Residential (MDR) - in OA 129 166 166 258 Medium Density Residential (MDR) - outside OA 120 315 315 561 Medium Density Residential (MDR) - Total Dwelling Units 249 481 481 819 High Density Residential (HDR) - in OA 104 104 236 322 High Density Residential (HDR) - outside OA 54 81 98 98 High Density Residential (HDR) - Total Dwelling Units 158 185 334 420 Neighborhood Commercial (NC) - in OA 30 76 192 194 Neighborhood Commercial (NC) - outside OA 2 7 7 25 Neighborhood Commercial (NC) - Total Dwelling Units 32 83 199 219 Mixed Use Commercial (MUC) - in OA 91 345 21 630 Mixed Use Commercial (MUC) - outside OA 13 21 449 66 Mixed Use Commercial (MUC) - Total Dwelling Units 104 366 470 696 Employment Employment 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 Transportation Traffic Congestion Increase Levels Minimal Increase with 2 studied intersections seeing moderate increase in congestion Minimal Increase with 3 studied intersections seeing moderate increase in congestion Moderate increase with 4 studied intersections seeing moderate increase in Moderate increase with 4 studied intersections seeing moderate increase in Total Daily VMT (lower VMT better)1,245,000 1,259,000 1,267,000 1,284,000 VMT per Service Population (lower VMT better)22.65 22.20 21.95 21.48 Fiscal* Annual Revenue 4,320,000.00$ 5,796,000.00$ 6,564,000.00$ 8,378,000.00$ Annual Costs 3,710,000.00$ 5,280,000.00$ 6,264,000.00$ 8,413,000.00$ Net Fiscal Impact 610,000.00$ 516,000.00$ 300,000.00$ (35,000.00)$ Residential Net Impact 190,000.00$ 96,000.00$ (121,000.00)$ (455,000.00)$ Non-residential Net Impact 420,000.00$ 420,000.00$ 420,000.00$ 420,000.00$ Urban Form Range of allowable building heights up to 35 feet up to 40 feet up to 50 feet up to 60 feet Maximum number of stories 2 stories 3-4 stories 4 stories 5 stories *There will be increases in property tax revenues associated with redevelopment of commercial space, which is not shown here Opportunity Area Dwelling Units by Alternative Comparison Table* *The following net new dwelling units include only those new units produced under each land use alternative. The totals exclude assumed accessory dwelling units (500 units) and pending/approved Town projects (475 units). ATTACHMENT 9 HDR MDR MU NC LDR HDR MDR MU NC LDR Outside OA 0 54 120 13 2 43 81 315 21 7 160 Pollard Road OA 1 0 8 0 4 2 0 10 0 9 5 North Santa Cruz Avenue OA 2 39 14 0 4 0 39 17 0 19 0 Winchester Boulevard OA 3 42 16 0 7 3 42 19 0 20 5 Lark Avenue OA 4 0 46 0 0 69 0 61 0 0 98 Los Gatos Boulevard OA 5 23 42 91 0 21 23 55 345 0 33 Union Avenue OA 6 0 1 0 11 0 0 2 0 17 0 Harwood Road OA 7 0 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 11 0 158 249 104 32 138 185 481 366 83 301 Total 681 Total 1,416 HDR MDR MU NC LDR HDR MDR MU NC LDR Outside OA 0 98 315 21 7 164 98 561 66 25 264 Pollard Road OA 1 0 10 0 21 13 0 17 0 21 25 North Santa Cruz Avenue OA 2 100 17 0 63 1 141 26 0 63 3 Winchester Boulevard OA 3 88 19 0 50 10 117 30 0 50 17 Lark Avenue OA 4 0 61 0 0 101 0 92 0 0 123 Los Gatos Boulevard OA 5 48 55 449 0 53 64 87 630 0 111 Union Avenue OA 6 0 2 0 32 1 0 3 0 34 3 Harwood Road OA 7 0 2 0 26 1 0 3 0 26 1 334 481 470 199 344 420 819 696 219 547 Total 1,828 Total 2,701 Alternative DAlternative C Alternative BAlternative A Assumptions, Development Standards, and Net New Dwelling Unit Comparisons* *The following net new dwelling units include only those new units produced under each land use alternative. The totals exclude assumed accessory dwelling units (500 units) and pending/approved Town projects (475 units). ATTACHMENT 10 Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA LDR 5%5%0 to 5 5 to 12 4 10 0.25 43 95 MDR 5%10%5 to 12 12 to 20 10 16 0.5 120 129 HDR 10%10%12 to 20 20 to 30 18 26 0.75 54 104 NC 5%5%0 to 20 10 to 20 18 18 0.5 2 30 MU 5%5%0 to 20 10 to 20 18 18 0.5 13 91 Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA LDR 5%5%5 to 12 8 to 16 10 14 0.25 160 141 MDR 10%10%12 to 20 14 to 24 16 20 0.75 315 166 HDR 10%10%20 to 30 20 to 30 26 26 1 81 104 NC 10%10%0 to 20 10 to 20 18 18 0.75 7 76 MU 10%15%0 to 20 20 to 30 18 26 0.75 21 345 Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA LDR 5%10% 5 to 12 8 to 16 10 14 0.5 164 180 MDR 10%10%12 to 20 14 to 24 16 20 0.75 315 166 HDR 15%15%20 to 30 30 to 40 26 36 1.25 98 236 NC 10%15%0 to 20 *20 to 30 *18 26 0.75 7 192 MU 10%20%0 to 20 *30 to 40 *18 26 1 21 449 Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA Outside OA Inside OA LDR 10%15% 5 to 12 12 to 20 10 16 0.75 264 283 MDR 15%15%14 to 24 14 to 24 20 20 1 561 258 HDR 15%20%20 to 30 30 to 40 26 36 1.5 98 322 NC 15%15%20 to 30 *20 to 30 *26 26 1 25 194 MU 15%20%30 to 40 *30 to 40 *36 36 1.5 66 630 Dwelling Units Alternative D: High Growth Dwelling Units Dwelling Units Alternative A: Base Case - Low Growth Alternative B: Medium Growth Dwelling Units Alternative C: Medium-High Growth Land Use Designation Redevelopment Density Range (DU/AC)Typical Density (DU/AC)FAR Land Use Designation Redevelopment Density Range (DU/AC)Typical Density (DU/AC)FAR Land Use Designation Redevelopment Density Range (DU/AC)Typical Density (DU/AC)FAR Land Use Designation Redevelopment Density Range (DU/AC)Typical Density (DU/AC)FAR From: Nicholas Gera <ngera@comcast.net> Sent: Wednesday, December 11, 2019 4:30 PM To: Joel Paulson <jpaulson@losgatosca.gov> Subject: 16492 Los Gatos Blvd Hi Joel, Just following up on our conversation about the general plan update. I would like to request that the advisory board consider changing the general plan on 16492 Los Gatos Blvd from Low Density residential to Neighborhood Commercial . Please let me know if you need any additional information from me at this time. Thanks for your help. Nick Gera (408) 391-9081 ATTACHMENT 11 From: Phil Koen <pkoen@monteropartners.com> Sent: Tuesday, January 14, 2020 3:26 PM To: melaniehanssen@yahoo.com Cc: Joel Paulson <jpaulson@losgatosca.gov> Subject: Update on Meeting with Joel Hi Melanie, I met with Joel today and discussed my concerns with the draft alternative land use report. While it was a constructive meeting and Joel was very open and helpful, frankly, I am not sure if anything will be done as a result of my comments. I left with the sense there was little room for any changes to this draft report. The Town clearly has a “process to run” and they are driving that process. Just how open is the GPAC to divergent thinking at this point? The land use report states that the goal of the land use alternatives process is to enable community input to help the Council identify “preferred land use alternative”. Is that the really the case? Let me quickly summarize my major points of concern: • The alternative land use document appears to be written with a specific goal, namely to create a pathway for the Town to build an additional 2,000 housing units between now and 2040. This appears to be a “predetermined” outcome, set by the GPAC vs. arriving at this conclusion based on a studied analysis of most likely population and job growth requirements. The 2,000 number seems to be based on a belief that the current RHNA requirement of 619 (1,547 converted to a 20 year period) for the 8 year planning period from 2015 – 2023 will be materially increased in the next cycle. A 2,000 number would equate to a new RHNA number of 800 which would represent a 30% increase from 619. To frame this, the current 619 target represented a 10% increase from the prior RHNA planning cycle for 2007- 2014. Who knows if the 2,000 is correct or not, but it will definitely drive the recommendations regarding land use density and height. It is worth noting that San Diego County just received their new RHNA target and it increased approximately 6% from the prior cycle. • It is clear that there was a “heavy hand on the scale” in drafting the population growth forecast for Alternatives C and D. There is no historical data that remotely supports the population growth shown in Table 5-1. ABAG, which is the government body that determines the RHNA requirement based on DOF forecasts, has their own population growth forecast that is 20% of Alternative D and 28% of Alternative C! Frankly, this feels “rigged” to me with regard to Alternative C and D forecasts and a radical departure from what has been forecast by DOF or ABAG. I have no idea why these alternatives are even in this report given they are so out of line. • It is surprising that the report assumes no job growth. I understand that this is because the land use alternatives only assume new housing units. This results in total jobs remaining constant over the next 20 years as shown in Table 5-6. EMSI has forecast 9,403 new jobs in Los Gatos over the next 20 year period. If this is correct, how do you square this with the no job growth assumption? This no job growth assumption “tilts” the alternative land use squarely toward new housing units and away from commercial units. I am not sure why the GPAC did this. • The distribution of new housing by subarea strikes me as not being fairly distributed. For example, subarea 5 which has the most land area is slated to get only 8 (1%) new units out of a total 681 under alternative A vs subarea 1 getting 211 (31%) and subarea 4 getting 216 (32%). I understand that this outcome resulted from the GPAC making the recommendation that there should be no hillside development. That direction obviously “tilted” the scale away from subarea 5 which strikes me as not being balanced or fair. I’m wondering how the residents in subarea 1 and 4 would feel about that decision. • Lastly we discussed the fiscal analysis section of the report. I believe this section has the most issues. I pointed out to Joel that the proper approach is to produce a 10 year forecast of the financial impact for each land use alternative. The core problem is that incremental property tax revenue (which is the main revenue source) is capped at a 2% per year increase while the cost to deliver town services have been inflating at over 5% per year over the past 5 years, largely driven by salary and pension expense increases. Given the differential in growth rates, within a very short number of years, the incremental expenditures will materially exceed the incremental revenues. There is no land use alternative presented that won’t have a material adverse financial impact on the Town. Additionally the basic set of financial statements used for this analysis should be the town wide statement of activities and not the general fund statement. The town wide statement of activities captures the cost of delivering services for the entire town in addition to properly recording pension expense, capital expenditures and internal service revenues/expenses. You do not get the same level of information by solely looking at a general fund budget. Melanie, I hope the GPAC will view these comments as constructive. I believe there are real problems with the report as it is currently drafted. I hope there is a willingness to take a step back and view the existing draft and make corrections. I am not sure there is anything else I can do at this point. All the best, Phil